Bitcoin Price Prediction for November 2026
After two straight losing Octobers and a historic breach at the world's largest crypto exchange, Bitcoin heads into November facing a gauntlet of make-or-break dates that could send it soaring past $86,000 or spiraling toward levels not seen since summer.
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As November 2026 begins, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is reeling from a challenging October, marking its second straight losing October with a 7.3% drop, following a 4% dip in October 2025. This makes any Bitcoin price prediction for November more challenging than its historically robust performance might suggest.
Currently priced at $78,050, Bitcoin has seen a slight 0.7% uptick in the last 24 hours. It peaked at $86,489 on October 4 before hitting a daily low of $76,141 on October 30, when Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, suspended withdrawals due to a suspected security breach. This means Bitcoin is currently trading 38.1% below its record high of $126,080 from October 6, 2025.
Bitcoin Starts November Below Its 20-Day and 50-Day Averages
At $78,050, Bitcoin boasts a market cap of approximately $1.57 trillion, making it the largest cryptocurrency by market value. It accounts for about 60% of the total cryptocurrency market, so its price movements strongly influence other coins as well.
However, the past year has been tough for Bitcoin holders. The coin is down 29.1% over the past year and 10.9% year to date. Despite this, Bitcoin has seen a positive turnaround in the last 90 days, gaining 23% after recovering from a low closing price of $58,566 on June 30, its lowest point in the last year.
Resistance is forming as sellers previously stepped in around $79,107, just 1.4% above its current price. Beyond that, Bitcoin needs to overcome its 20-day moving average at $81,022 and its 50-day moving average at $81,906 in order to signal a potential shift. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below both moving averages, indicating that sellers dominate the short-term trend.
On a brighter note, the long-term trend appears positive, as the 200-day moving average sits at $73,136, still 6.3% below the current price. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges investor sentiment from 0 to 100, stands at a neutral 46.
How Bitcoin Has Traded in November After a Losing October
Historically, November has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, but exceptions exist. The average November gain is around 38%, mostly skewed by a stunning 404% increase in November 2013. In reality, the median gain for the month is more modest at 8.8%.
After a down month in October, Bitcoin has had mixed outcomes in the following November. Following a drop in October 2018, Bitcoin plummeted 36.8% in November of that year. After a 4% decrease in October 2025, it lost 17.5% in November. The only exception came in November 2014, when Bitcoin rebounded by 17.1% after a decline in October that year.
ETF Outflows, Binance and MSCI Could Move Bitcoin in November
Recent events could significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory in November. On October 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs—which directly hold Bitcoin and trade like stocks—recorded $643 million in outflows, their biggest outflow day since June. That same week, investors pulled $203 million from these funds, bringing total net assets down to $98.1 billion.
Cumulative net inflows peaked at around $58 billion on October 21, before dropping to about $57 billion by October 30, the day Bitcoin hit a 30-day low.
The recent breach at Binance, which TRM Labs described as the largest crypto theft on record, casts a shadow over the market. While Binance has promised to compensate all affected users and provide proof of reserves, investors will closely watch the verification report scheduled for release on November 3. A clean report could restore some confidence; however, any discrepancies or delays might further erode trust and put pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Another factor to monitor is MSCI’s (NYSE:MSCI | MSCI Price Prediction) decision on November 11 on whether to remove Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) from its global equity indices under new eligibility rules effective November 30. The company funds its Bitcoin purchases by selling shares; therefore, removal from MSCI could hinder its Bitcoin-buying capacity and create additional market pressure.
Bitcoin Could Trade Between $76,000 and $82,000 in November
Traders are closely watching Bitcoin’s October 30 low of $76,141 as an indicator of November’s market direction. If price stays above that level, Bitcoin could trade in the $76,000 to $82,000 range, still below its 20-day and 50-day averages, especially if negative ETF flows continue and the market waits on outcomes from Binance and MSCI.
In a more bearish scenario, a close below $76,141 could draw buyers to the August 23 low of $75,538, followed by support around $74,900 from mid-September, and finally the 200-day average at $73,136. Further significant outflows like those on October 30, a disappointing Binance report, or MSCI’s decision to remove Strategy could trigger a decline toward the $75,000 level that bears are targeting.
Conversely, in a bullish scenario, Bitcoin must first surpass resistance at $79,107 and close above the 50-day average at $81,906. If successful, Bitcoin could aim for its previous high close of $86,489 achieved on October 4. Positive inflow days are crucial for this upward movement to gain momentum.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Where Could Bitcoin Close on November 30?
Bitcoin holders face two key dates in November that could affect the cryptocurrency’s price. The first test comes on November 3, when Binance will release its reserve report. Following that, on November 11, MSCI will announce its decision on Strategy. If Bitcoin finishes a day below $76,141, we could see parallels drawn to its performance in November 2018 and November 2025, when it fell by 36.8% and 17.5%, respectively.
Looking ahead to our five-year Bitcoin forecast, we extend our view all the way to 2031. If Bitcoin remains above $76,141 after these key dates, it’s likely to close on November 30 somewhere between $76,000 and $82,000. This would put it below its 50-day average but still above its October lows.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
