Cryptocurrency

Galaxy’s Alex Thorn Says a Break Below $76,000 Would End His Bitcoin Bull Case. Claude AI Says How Likely That Is

Galaxy Digital's head of research has drawn a line in the sand at a specific Bitcoin price level, warning that a break below it would kill his bullish case entirely. With Bitcoin dangerously close to that threshold and only eight…

By Sam Daodu
Published November 2, 2026, 2:31pm ET · 4 min read

The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.

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A diligent investor analyzes complex financial data and charts, a process essential for uncovering potential market dislocations and identifying strategic investment opportunities highlighted in this article. © A HIP A HUB STOCK / Shutterstock.com

Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ:GLXY), has identified $76,000 as a critical threshold for his bullish view on Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC). According to Galaxy’s analysis, if Bitcoin falls below its 50-week moving average near this level and doesn’t recover, it would invalidate Thorn’s buy-and-hold strategy. This makes $76,000 a pivotal point in any Bitcoin price prediction for the remainder of 2026.

Bitcoin trades at $77,324 after dipping to $76,141 in the last week of October, and it has lost 8.1% over the past month. This price is also 38.7% below its all-time high of $126,080, reached on October 6, 2025.

The 50-week moving average represents the average of the last 50 weekly closing prices. Traders use this metric to distinguish between long-term upward and downward trends. Currently, this moving average sits at $75,691. So, what are the chances of Bitcoin closing a week below $76,000 by year-end? Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, estimates the likelihood at 55%.

Buyers Have Defended Bitcoin’s $76,000 Level Since Late Summer

A hand holds a black smartphone displaying a stock trading app. The phone screen shows a red and green candlestick chart with numerical values along the side, and prominent green 'BUY' and orange 'SELL' buttons at the bottom. The background is a blurred, dark screen with out-of-focus red and green financial charts.

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At $77,324, Bitcoin maintains a market cap of about $1.55 trillion, solidifying its position as the largest cryptocurrency. However, buyers have consistently defended the $76,000 mark. In late summer, Bitcoin registered several weekly lows at $76,030, $76,219, and $76,652, with buyers stepping in each time.

Galaxy’s research declared the bear market over after Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average in September. Even after dipping to $74,888 in the week of September 20, Bitcoin closed that week at $81,160. Traders focus on weekly closing prices; therefore, an intraday dip does not invalidate the bullish view as long as Bitcoin closes the week above the line.

If Bitcoin drops below the $76,000 line, the next level traders will watch is the 200-day moving average, currently at $73,154. Bitcoin’s one-year low was set at $58,566 on June 30.

ETF Outflows and Loss-Selling Push Bitcoin Toward $76,000

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On October 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs—funds that hold Bitcoin directly—saw $643 million in outflows, their worst outflow day of the month, the same day Binance suspended withdrawals after a hack. Trading volume for these funds peaked at $6.35 billion that day, showing how quickly investors decided to sell.

As of October 30, total ETF assets dropped to $98.1 billion from $110.8 billion on October 5, while Bitcoin fell 7.3% throughout October. However, inflows of over $526 million on October 19 and October 21 demonstrate that buyers can return swiftly.

On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that holders are selling their Bitcoin at a loss below $80,000, the longest loss-selling streak since mid-August. That selling adds supply to the market just as Bitcoin approaches the critical $76,000 level.

Strategy’s $75,451 Average Cost Is Just Below Thorn’s Line

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Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, owns 849,327 BTC, valued at around $65.7 billion, with an average purchase price of $75,451, according to its latest 8-K filing. This means its average cost is about 2.5% below the current price. Additionally, the average purchase price of its most recent coins is $80,846, putting those assets at a loss.

Claude estimates a 62% probability that Bitcoin will dip below Strategy’s average cost of $75,451 before the year is out. This figure is higher than its 55% estimate for a weekly close below $76,000, as even a brief intraday drop could push the price below that average.

Claude AI Sees Bitcoin Between $72,000 and $85,000 by Year-End

A gleaming silver Bitcoin coin stands prominently on a dark, textured surface, angled slightly to the right. Behind it, a semi-transparent overlay displays complex financial data, including a red and green candlestick chart, line graphs, and mathematical equations. Various hexagonal icons, featuring currency symbols like the dollar, euro, ruble, a plus sign, and a checkmark, float above and around the coin. The background is a blurry dark blue with numerous warm, circular bokeh lights, creating a sense of depth and focus on the central digital currency theme.

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According to Claude’s projections, if Bitcoin closes a week below $76,000, fails to recover the following week, and drops below the $75,000 level bears have flagged, it may reach a low of $68,000. This projection represents roughly a 12% decrease from its current price and is about 46% lower than its all-time high. Claude expects this potential drop could flush out loss-sellers before a recovery to around $72,000 by December 31.

Should the $76,000 level hold, Claude’s most likely year-end price for Bitcoin is $85,000, still about 33% below its peak. Based on these forecasts, investing $1,000 in Bitcoin now could yield about $931 by December 31 if the critical level breaks, or about $1,099 if it holds. Factoring in Claude’s 55% and 45% probabilities, that $1,000 investment averages roughly $1,007, indicating a balanced but risky scenario.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Could Bitcoin Close a Week Below $76,000 Before 2027?

It seems probable. Claude gives a 55% chance that Bitcoin will close a week below $76,000, and our analysis aligns with this assessment. With Bitcoin trading just 1.7% above this crucial threshold and only eight weekly closes left in 2026, sellers appear to have the upper hand, especially after a recent $643 million outflow erased much of the preceding week’s ETF inflows.

However, if Bitcoin closes a week above $80,000, it could shift this outlook significantly. A weekly close above $80,000 would push Strategy’s latest purchases back into profit and move Bitcoin out of the loss-selling zone Glassnode identified. If such a shift occurs before mid-December, the $76,000 threshold is likely to hold. Until then, the risk of a weekly close below this level remains high.

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Sam Daodu

Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.

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