The Average Ethereum ETF Buyer Is Down 28%. What Happens if They Start Selling?

Typical buyers of a U.S. spot Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETF are currently losing money. James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that the average cost basis for these funds, which reflects the price buyers paid for Ethereum, is just under $3,200.

ETH is trading at $2,296, down 28% from that average cost. This means the average investment in Ethereum ETFs is down by roughly the same percentage.

ETH has also fallen 16% over the past 30 days, and investors are responding to the declines. On November 2, the funds experienced an outflow of $140 million, marking the sixth consecutive day of outflows. Notably, the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (NASDAQ: ETHA) accounted for nearly all of it, at $138 million.

This raises the question: will the large number of holders currently at a loss start selling, or does this suggest that most of the selling pressure has already occurred?

Ethereum ETF Buyers Break Even at Around $3,200

The average cost basis gives us insight into when holders might consider selling. Buyers still at a loss may be inclined to sell during price rallies, which could mean $3,200 acts as a resistance level. Conversely, those deep in the red may sell out first, potentially leaving fewer sellers if ETH drops again.

The scale of the situation is significant. As of November 2, the funds held approximately $13.2 billion in net assets, or around 5.86 million ETH, compared to a total Ethereum circulation of about 122.2 million ETH. This means these ETFs control roughly 4.8% of all Ethereum in circulation.

Average Losses Mask Patient Ethereum ETF Holders

Not everyone is losing out equally. Some buyers who purchased Ethereum at its all-time high of $4,946 in August 2025 are down by more than half. Meanwhile, those who bought near the low of $1,566 on June 25 are actually in profit. Furthermore, buyers of ETHA from late 2025 are also facing greater losses, as the fund price has dropped by 41.1% over the past year.

Despite the overall decline, many investors appear to be holding onto their assets. Ethereum ETF net assets fell from $17.7 billion on October 5 to $13.2 billion by November 2, down about $4.5 billion. Over the same period, net outflows totaled about $1.65 billion, suggesting price drops drove most of the reduction, with withdrawals accounting for the rest.

The selling trend has also been concentrated. ETHA accounted for nearly all the outflows on November 2 and holds about 51% of the total U.S. Ethereum ETF assets. This means that a few large investors exiting one fund can create significant daily outflows without indicating a broader panic among all investors.

On that same day, ETHA also traded $405 million in shares, approximately 2.9 times its actual outflow, mostly involving trades between investors that didn’t affect the fund’s actual Ethereum holdings.

A 10% Ethereum ETF Exit Could Test $2,234 Support

If 10% of assets in Ethereum ETFs were to exit—about $1.32 billion, or roughly 586,000 ETH—it would be significantly larger than any single-day outflow in the past month. For comparison, the largest single-day outflow this past month was $201.9 million on October 6.

During the recent six-day outflow period from October 26 to November 2, around $571 million left the funds, yet ETH only fell by 2.4% in that time, which is a minor drop considering the volume of selling.

A quick exit could pressure several key price levels. ETH’s latest 30-day low was $2,243 on October 30, with immediate support just below at $2,234. Further down, the 200-day moving average, which reflects the average closing price over the last 200 days, sits at $2,157, and the 90-day low is $1,871 from August 10.

Interestingly, a buyer is ready to step in. BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR | BMNR Price Prediction), which claims to have the largest corporate Ethereum holding, bought 8,573 ETH in the week before its November 2 update, totaling about $19.7 million. Their total holdings reached 6.06 million ETH, surpassing what all U.S. spot ETFs hold together.

However, BitMine’s purchases are minor compared with ETF outflows. The $140 million outflow on November 2 alone equals about 62,100 ETH, roughly seven times BitMine’s weekly acquisition. Additionally, BitMine’s stock is down 21.6% in a month, making it harder to raise new funds through share sales.

Will Underwater Ethereum ETF Holders Push ETH Below $2,234?

A mass exit of 10% seems unlikely, as ETF investors have already weathered a $4.5 billion drop in assets and pulled out only $1.65 billion. However, the ongoing slow outflow could continue to pressure ETH for weeks. The risk remains that $3,200 could become a ceiling—the price at which underwater holders sell any rally that might let them break even.

A sudden outflow greater than the October 6 figure of $201.9 million could signal that large holders are speeding up their selling. Conversely, a week of net inflows would suggest selling pressure has subsided.

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