We Asked Claude: Solana or Bitcoin, Which Hits a New All-Time High First?
One coin sits far closer to its record than the other, and an AI model has put a date on the comeback. But a recession or a break below one key price level could push that timeline back for both.
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We asked Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, whether Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) or Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) would hit a new all-time high first. Claude predicted “Bitcoin, most likely between late 2027 and mid-2028.” At that time, Solana was priced at $90.53, and Bitcoin was trading at $76,537.
By the time we checked the latest prices, Bitcoin had dipped 4.97% over the last 24 hours to $76,280, while Solana had a sharper decline of 5.88%, now trading at $90.83. Both cryptocurrencies are below their 30-day closing lows from November 2, 2026, which were $76,709 for Bitcoin and $91.84 for Solana.
To hit their previous all-time highs, Bitcoin would need to gain 65.03% to surpass its peak of $126,080, while Solana would require a steep 222.18% increase to exceed $293.31.
Solana vs. Bitcoin: Solana Needs a Rally 3.42 Times Bigger
Solana’s required comeback is about 3.42 times greater than Bitcoin’s. Solana trades 69.03% below its all-time high, while Bitcoin trades 39.5% below its peak. Claude based its calculations on slightly different initial prices, estimating the gaps at “about 65%” for Bitcoin and “about 224%” for Solana.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately $1.53 trillion, making up 59.13% of the total cryptocurrency market. Solana ranks as the No. 7 cryptocurrency with a market cap of roughly $53.6 billion, accounting for 2.07% of the total market.
While smaller coins like Solana can move faster, Solana has struggled to maintain its gains. Over the past five years, Solana has dropped 64.92% from its peak of $258.93, while Bitcoin has gained 23.67% over the same period. Over the last 90 days, Solana gained 23.38% compared to Bitcoin’s 17.57%, but Solana lost 24.74% over the past month, while Bitcoin’s decline was only 10.83%.
| Metric | Bitcoin | Solana |
|---|---|---|
| Live price | $76,280 | $90.83 |
| Below all-time high | 39.5% | 69.03% |
| Gain needed | +65.03% | +222.18% |
| 24-hour change | -4.97% | -5.88% |
| US spot ETF net flow, Nov. 4, 2026 | +$74.6 million | $0.0 million |
| T. Rowe Price benchmark index weight | 44.23% | 7.74% |
The weights in the last row come from a benchmark index published by T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW | TROW Price Prediction). They show the proportion of the index each coin makes up, not the company’s actual holdings.
Key Drivers to Push Each Coin Toward a New All-Time High
Bitcoin’s ETF Buyers Returned on November 4, 2026
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold bitcoin directly for investors, took in a net $74.6 million on November 4, 2026, after outflows on October 30, November 2 and November 3. Total net inflows since launch have remained above $56 billion.
According to Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, the average price recent active Bitcoin buyers paid is estimated at $77,700, with support near $75,700. Bitcoin trades between those two levels, meaning many recent buyers are in a losing position. If Bitcoin climbs back above $77,700, those buyers would reach breakeven, which could ease selling pressure. Bitcoin briefly jumped after Democrats took Congress before the latest drop.
Samsung Wallet Reaches 82 Million Phones as Solana ETF Flows Stay Flat
On November 5, 2026, Samsung Wallet launched USDC (CRYPTO:USDC), a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, on Solana, making it available on about 82 million eligible US Galaxy devices. That gives Solana a mainstream payments channel, but dollar payments typically drive network activity more than direct demand for the SOL token.
US spot Solana ETFs reported zero net inflows on November 2, 3 and 4. Between October 6 and November 4, the only inflow was $585,297, and total net assets dropped from about $1.93 billion to about $1.40 billion. Solana’s current price floor of $90 reflects the same weakness.
Claude’s Halving Clock Signals 2028
A halving is a scheduled cut in the new bitcoin paid to miners, and it comes about every four years. Bitcoin reached its all-time high on October 6, 2025.
Claude says that peak came “about 18 months after the April 2024 halving,” and notes “Bitcoin passed its old high in March 2024, a month before the halving, so a break in late 2027 or early 2028 fits the pattern.”
We’ve also asked whether Bitcoin can set a new all-time high before the 2028 halving.
Solana Price Prediction FAQ
Will Solana Recover?
Solana has the potential for a significant rally, but a full recovery to $293.31 needs a 222.18% climb. Claude places Solana’s best chance “likely in 2028 or later, after Bitcoin has already surged.”
Solana vs. Bitcoin: Which Has Further to Go?
Solana does. It trades 69.03% below its all-time high, while Bitcoin is just 39.5% below its peak.
Will Solana Go Back Up?
Solana trades above its 200-day average of $88.93, which keeps the longer-term uptrend intact, and it could see further gains if ETF flows turn positive. We also asked Claude whether Hyperliquid (CRYPTO:HYPE) could overtake Solana in market value.
Solana vs. Bitcoin: Which Coin Is More Likely to Reach a New All-Time High First?
Bitcoin likely has the advantage, since it has less distance to cover than Solana. According to Claude, even if Solana outperforms Bitcoin during the next market rally, as it often does, it would need to do so by a substantial margin to match its previous high at the same time. Claude notes that Solana’s peak occurred “during the memecoin and launchpad frenzy of early 2025.”
Bitcoin needs to hold above $75,700, then recover $77,700 and its 50-day average of $82,006. Solana needs positive ETF flows and a move back above its 50-day average of $108.58 before $293.31 becomes a realistic target. Claude warns a recession or a deeper bear market could push both highs back to 2029; a close below $75,700 with Solana’s ETFs still flat could push the late-2027 timeline out further for both coins.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
