Bitcoin’s Correlation With the S&P 500 Just Hit 0.80. Is Bitcoin Trading Like a Tech Stock Again?
Bitcoin is sinking in lockstep with Wall Street, yet it keeps missing the rebounds. Past episodes of tight correlation ended in opposite ways, and two specific signals could reveal which path Bitcoin takes next.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) and U.S. stocks have been closely aligned lately. Glassnode data shows that as of November 6, 2026, Bitcoin’s S&P 500 correlation over the last 30 U.S. trading sessions hit 0.80. On that scale, 1 means the two move in perfect alignment, and 0 means they have no relationship.
Bitcoin trades at $75,662 on November 8, just below its 30-day closing low of $75,775 from November 6. That puts it 40% under its all-time high of $126,080, reached on October 6, 2025. Over the last week, Bitcoin dropped 3% while the S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the NASDAQ Composite lost 3.4%.
The year looks very different for each. The S&P 500 has climbed 7.8% in 2026 through November 6, while Bitcoin is down 13.6% year to date. So is Bitcoin trading like a tech stock again, or is this 30-session correlation overstating the connection?
What 0.80 Means and When Bitcoin Last Tracked Stocks This Closely
A correlation value measures how consistently two assets move in the same direction each day. Glassnode’s analysis uses only U.S. trading sessions, leaving out weekends when only Bitcoin trades.
Generally, a high correlation means Bitcoin is reacting to the same interest-rate and earnings worries that move tech stocks, rather than to crypto-specific news. The recent correlation of around 0.80 from September 28 to November 6 contrasts with roughly 0.45 from March 31, 2025, to November 6, 2026, which suggests the usual relationship is much weaker.
Bitcoin was similarly aligned with stocks in 2022, when rising Federal Reserve interest rates hit growth assets across the board. However, the link broke in November 2022, when the FTX collapse hit crypto alone. On November 8, 2022, Bitcoin closed at $18,579 and fell a further 7.3% over the next 30 days.
A similar stretch in early 2025 ended differently. On March 24, 2025, Matrixport flagged Bitcoin’s correlation with the NASDAQ 100 at a level seen only twice before and warned that such episodes often prove short-lived. After a tariff shock, Bitcoin closed at $82,489 on April 2, 2025, and surged 17.5% over the following 30 days. Past decouplings have gone both ways, depending on what broke the correlation.
Why the 0.80 Figure Might Be Misleading
Correlation shows direction, but it ignores the size of price moves. Over the 30 days to November 8, Bitcoin fell 8%, while the S&P 500 dropped 5.4% through November 6. So Bitcoin has taken the same hits harder.
Additionally, 30 trading sessions is a small sample, so one major event can skew the result. On October 30, for example, Bitcoin fell alongside tech stocks after a Binance hack, and U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $643.3 million in net outflows, the largest of the month, on $6.35 billion of trading value.
The average also masks outliers. On November 6, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.1%, yet Bitcoin closed at its 30-day low. Bitcoin has largely followed stocks down while missing their rebounds.
Moreover, correlation can’t show who is trading, so it looks the same whether big funds are selling both assets or trading is thin. Shared ownership likely drives the link, since spot ETFs place Bitcoin alongside megacap chip stocks in brokerage accounts. When investors cut risk, they may sell both, which feeds the idea of Bitcoin as an “exit asset,” often sold first for cash because it trades 24/7.
The “digital gold” label fails in this market. A safe-haven asset should hold its value when fear rises. However, on November 5, the VIX, a measure of expected S&P 500 swings, jumped to 28.2 from 16.6 the day before, while Bitcoin kept falling with stocks. Our look at Bitcoin and gold as inflation hedges found the same pattern.
ETF Flows Show Whether Bitcoin Can Break From Stocks
Tracking ETF flows shows whether investors focused on Bitcoin step in while stocks are shaky. So far, that money is flowing out. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $430.2 million on November 5 and $411.9 million on November 6.
Cumulative net inflows peaked at $57.96 billion on October 21 and dropped to $55.70 billion by November 6. Total net assets also fell, from $109.3 billion to $95.9 billion over the same period, so ETF holders are cutting their positions.
Bond yields point the same way. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.84% on November 5 from 5.31% on October 5, yet Bitcoin kept declining, suggesting weaker risk appetite as the main driver.
Bitcoin also trades below its 20-day moving average of $79,362 and its 50-day average of $81,889, yet remains above its 200-day average of $73,194. The short-term trend is down, while the long-term trend still holds.
Is Bitcoin Trading Like a Tech Stock Again?
For the moment, Bitcoin is behaving like a tech stock. But the 0.80 reading likely says more about who owns Bitcoin than about any permanent shift in what it is. The roughly 0.45 correlation from March 2025 shows the link tends to weaken after a shared shock fades, and over the last decade, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have followed very different paths.
Two signals would show Bitcoin and stocks diverging. One is U.S. Bitcoin ETFs posting several straight days of net inflows while the S&P 500 falls. The other is Bitcoin closing above its $81,889 50-day average on a day stocks drop. If Bitcoin instead falls below its $73,194 200-day average while ETF outflows continue, it would be trading like a high-volatility tech stock, and the correlation could climb even higher.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
