Bitcoin Has Fallen Below What Recent Buyers Paid 14 Times Since 2016. How Often Did BTC Recover Within 2 Weeks?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has dipped below the average price that recent buyers paid 14 times since 2016, and most of these dips were short-lived. In a November 11, 2026 post, analysts from Bitfinex noted that Bitcoin has been below $75,700, the short-term holder cost basis, for four consecutive days.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,304, 5.8% below that critical level. Over the past 24 hours, it has fallen 3.9%, 8.4% over the last 14 days, and 14.2% in the past month.

CryptoQuant’s indicators suggest a different outlook. Its Bitcoin Bull Score stands at 0, indicating a bearish trend. The question now is whether Bitcoin can rise above its short-term holder cost basis within two weeks, as it has done after most previous dips.

Bitcoin Reclaimed Recent Buyers’ Cost Within Two Weeks in 11 of 14 Breaks

According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin recovered above recent buyers’ cost within two weeks in 11 of 14 occurrences, or 78.6% of the time. Based on this pattern, Bitcoin has until November 22 to climb back above $75,700. The cost basis represents the average price paid for coins purchased in recent months.

When Bitcoin drops below this level, it typically signals a washout. The average recent buyer is at a loss, prompting anxious sellers to exit. Once these sellers have exited, fewer sellers remain in the market, making a rebound easier. We covered the same group in October, when their breakeven price was significantly higher.

However, the same buyers could also hinder a recovery. Those who are holding onto losing investments often sell as soon as they break even, creating resistance around the $75,700 mark.

Moreover, several moving averages are positioned above the current price. Bitcoin is 2.5% below its 200-day average of $73,125 and 3.3% below its lowest close in the past 30 days, $73,721 on November 10. Beyond $75,700, the 20-day average stands at $77,736, 9% higher than the current price, while the 50-day average is $81,140, 13.8% above where Bitcoin stands now.

Bitfinex Hasn’t Named the Three Breaks That Failed

The Bitfinex article does not specify the three instances where Bitcoin did not recover within two weeks, nor does it detail what followed those breaks. Excluding these examples weakens the analysis since they represent the only cases of actual failed recoveries.

Also, examining only 14 cases over a decade creates a limited perspective. A dip below the cost basis during a strong upward trend tends to attract buyers quickly, while a drop during a prolonged downturn does not have the same support. Past recoveries depended on renewed demand, which this situation lacks.

This market appears to be more comparable to the latter scenario. Bitcoin is down 18.6% this year and 29.8% over the past year, trading at 43.4% below its all-time high of $126,080 recorded on October 6, 2025. Many holders have already been selling at a loss for a considerable time before this recent dip.

The cost basis also has a limitation. This figure comes from the last recorded prices on the blockchain, but most buying happens on exchanges, often outside what the chain reflects. Therefore, the $75,700 figure could overlook the prices that exchange buyers paid.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Reads 0 as Bitcoin Demand Stays Negative

CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno reports that the firm’s Bull Score is at 0, combining various on-chain and market factors into a bearish reading. Moreno framed the situation around two possibilities: either a local bottom or a deeper correction.

CryptoQuant’s demand estimate over the last 30 days shows a balance of -348,000 BTC, approximately $24.8 billion at the current price. This gauge measures whether buyers have absorbed more Bitcoin than sellers have released. A negative number indicates that sellers have released more than buyers have absorbed. While spot demand (the actual purchase of coins) is starting to improve, perpetual futures contracts, which often involve borrowed money, continue to weigh down the market.

RugaResearch, writing for CryptoQuant, noted, “What I want to see next is spot continuing toward zero and the drag from perps easing enough for the combined line to flatten.” Leverage has significantly impacted Bitcoin during this downturn, as we previously observed traders borrowing in a declining market multiple times since October.

Will Bitcoin Reclaim $75,700 by November 22?

At this point, we believe this latest dip may trend toward becoming one of the three failures rather than one of the 11 swift recoveries. Bitfinex’s analysis depends on buyers returning, which has not yet materialized in this case. CryptoQuant’s data shows net selling of 348,000 BTC over the past month, suggesting demand still isn’t there.

Two indicators could shift this view. The first is CryptoQuant’s 30-day demand estimate stabilizing from its current -348,000 BTC, with spot demand approaching zero and the futures impact easing. Second, should Bitcoin close above $75,700, 6.2% higher than its current price, before November 22, recent buyers might break even, possibly facilitating a recovery. If neither scenario occurs, further declines could be imminent, pushing Bitcoin even lower.

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