Here is the number that should stop any leveraged ETF trader in their tracks: year to date through Tuesday’s close, the GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NASDAQ:NVDL) is up 11.5%. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), the stock it is designed to double, is up 13.78%. A 2x fund is trailing the 1x stock, and by a wider margin over the past year: NVDL up 9.3% against NVIDIA’s 17.9%.
That gap is the entire story of leveraged single-stock ETFs, condensed into two data points.
What NVDL Actually Is
NVDL is a GraniteShares product that seeks 2x the daily price return of NVIDIA using swaps and options rather than owning shares outright. It launched on December 13, 2022, carries a 1.05% expense ratio, and had grown to roughly $4.21 billion in AUM as of March 2, 2026. It has been called the “most successful single-stock ETF ever” by ETF.com, and it executed a 3-for-1 split on June 26, 2026 to keep the share price accessible.
The category has exploded alongside it. AI-focused leveraged single-stock ETFs held $17.7 billion in AUM as of last August, with new launches tripling in 2025 versus 2024.
The 2x That Isn’t 2x
Here is the mechanic that trips up newcomers. NVDL resets every day. If NVIDIA rises 3% today, NVDL targets +6% today, then rebuilds its swap book at the new level for tomorrow. Compound that daily reset across a choppy month and the math stops being multiplicative.
The clearest illustration sits in the fund’s own recent history. In early 2025, according to reporting from 24/7 Wall St., NVDL lost 68% peak-to-trough while NVIDIA fell roughly 35%. A pure 2x relationship would have produced a 70% loss, so this one was close, but the more important number is what came after: even as NVIDIA clawed back, NVDL did not fully catch up. That is volatility decay in action. Daily rebalancing amplifies losses on the way down and forces the fund to rebuild from a smaller base on the way up.
That is why, over the last twelve months of choppy AI trading, a 2x fund can lag a 1x stock outright.
Why the Five-Year Chart Still Looks Amazing
Now the counterweight, because the same mechanic that punishes chop rewards trend. Since inception on December 13, 2022, NVDL is up 2,405.55%. NVIDIA, over that same window and beyond, has run 930.5% over five years.
Translated into dollars, a $100 investment in NVDL five years ago would be worth roughly $2,021.52 today, per Benzinga’s January reporting, an annualized return of 82.45%. A separate Benzinga piece from June 24, 2026 pegged $1,000 five years back at more than $20,800. The one-directional AI trade is exactly the environment daily-reset leverage was built for.
NVDL Versus the 3x Alternative
Traders shopping this trade increasingly weigh NVDL against Direxion’s 3x NVIDIA fund, NVDU. The comparison is closer than the leverage factors suggest. Year to date, NVDU is up 11.73%, essentially a tie with NVDL’s 11.5% despite carrying an extra turn of leverage. Over one year, NVDU is up 9.12%, again in line with the 2x fund. NVDU’s most recent NPORT filing shows why: only 10.14% of net assets sit in actual NVDA shares, with the rest in cash and derivatives that must be reset daily.
The higher the leverage multiple, the more sensitive the fund is to volatility drag. Extra leverage does not always translate into extra return once the market gets bumpy.
The Turn: Why Anyone Owns This
The case for NVDL is a short-term tactical trade, and its own defenders say so. Seeking Alpha’s Michael Del Monte, who rates it a Buy, writes that it is “suitable for experienced traders looking for short-term opportunities” and “should only be held daily.” ETF.com’s staff put it more bluntly: “NVDL is suitable primarily for short-term traders due to its daily leverage reset and decay.” Leveraged ETFs reset every day and are engineered for short holding periods; hold one through a sideways or volatile stretch and returns can diverge sharply from the headline multiple, even turning negative while the underlying is flat.
Short interest reflects that ambivalence. As of December 15, 2025, 29.90% of NVDL’s float was sold short, a 32.88% jump from the prior report.
What to Watch Next
The next NVIDIA earnings report is the setup that will decide whether NVDL closes its 2026 gap with the underlying or widens it. A clean directional move rewards the structure. Another whipsaw quarter, of the kind that produced early 2025’s 68% drawdown, does the opposite. For now, keep an eye on the stock: a 2x label is a daily promise for one day, not a full year.
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