Retiring is a major life transition, and it is understandable that many people hesitate when they fear their savings will not stretch far enough. That exact concern sits at the center of a recent Reddit thread that has sparked a broader conversation about retirement withdrawal strategies.
The original poster (OP) shared that his friend is around 70 and still working because he does not trust the 4% rule. The OP wants him to retire, but the friend fears that withdrawing 4% per year could leave him short of money in his later years. The core question is whether the 4% rule remains a reliable guide, or whether a different approach makes more sense today.
What Is the 4% Rule?
Before addressing the concerns, it helps to understand what the 4% rule actually does. It is a retirement spending guideline designed to help retirees avoid outliving their savings. The idea is to withdraw 4% of the portfolio in the first year and then increase that dollar amount each year to keep pace with inflation. The rule was introduced by financial planner William Bengen in 1994, who found that this approach would keep savings intact through at least three decades in any historical market environment. Historically, the method has given retirees a strong probability of their savings lasting 30 years.
The rule has evolved since its debut. Bengen has since updated his own recommendation: his 2025 book raised the figure to 4.7%, assuming a portfolio that includes small-cap value stocks and holds up to 65% in equities. That revision reflects improvements in worst-case historical scenarios when the portfolio mix is broadened beyond large-cap stocks alone.
What Is the OP’s Friend Worried About?
The OP’s friend has two specific concerns. First, he is not confident he can hold himself to a 4% withdrawal rate each year. Unexpected medical bills, home repairs, or other costs could force him to tap his savings more heavily, and he worries those larger withdrawals would deplete his portfolio faster than planned.
His second concern is longevity. Even if he adheres to the rule, he fears it may still fall short. His parents lived well into their 90s, and if he follows a similar path, he could need his savings to support him for 25 years or more. That is a long runway, and the stakes of running short are severe.
How Can You Make Sure Your Money Lasts in Retirement?
The OP’s friend has reason to be thoughtful here, though perhaps not as alarmed as he feels. Morningstar’s most recent “State of Retirement Income” report, published in December 2025, set the baseline safe withdrawal rate at 3.9% for a 30-year retirement horizon, up from 3.7% in its prior report. That 30-year assumption, however, is calibrated for someone just beginning retirement. For a 70-year-old with roughly a 20-year horizon, Morningstar’s own research notes that retirees can safely withdraw well above the base-case figure, since shorter drawdown periods reduce the risk of running out. That context matters: the 4% rule may actually be on the conservative side for someone his age, not the aggressive side.
Still, the concern about discipline is worth taking seriously. If there is a realistic chance that living expenses will regularly push withdrawals above the planned rate, that is a signal that the retirement budget needs a closer look before leaving work. Entering retirement without confidence in the spending plan creates financial stress that compounds over time. A cushion above the minimum threshold is always preferable to cutting it close.
The most practical step the OP’s friend can take is to sit down with a financial advisor who specializes in retirement income. A professional can examine his specific portfolio, spending needs, and Social Security timing to build a personalized withdrawal strategy, one that goes beyond generic rules of thumb. At nearly 70, he already has enough clarity on his expenses and life expectancy to make those projections meaningful. Getting expert guidance now, rather than continuing to delay retirement out of vague anxiety, is the move that protects his long-term security most effectively.
Editor’s note: This article updates the Morningstar safe withdrawal rate figure from 3.7% to 3.9%, reflecting the firm’s December 2025 “State of Retirement Income” report, and adds context on William Bengen’s 2025 upward revision to 4.7% as well as Morningstar’s finding that retirees with shorter time horizons can safely withdraw above the standard base-case rate.
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