Retiring is a major life transition, and it is understandable that many people hesitate when they fear their savings will not stretch far enough. That exact concern sits at the center of a recent Reddit thread that has sparked a broader conversation about retirement withdrawal strategies.
The original poster (OP) shared that his friend is around 70 and still working because he does not trust the 4% rule. The OP wants him to retire, but the friend fears that withdrawing 4% per year could leave him short of money in his later years. The core question is whether the 4% rule remains a reliable guide, or whether a different approach makes more sense today.
What Is the 4% Rule?
Before addressing those concerns, it helps to understand what the 4% rule actually does. It is a retirement spending guideline designed to help retirees avoid outliving their savings. The idea is to withdraw 4% of the portfolio in the first year of retirement and then increase that dollar amount each year to keep pace with inflation. The rule was introduced by financial planner William Bengen in 1994, who found that this approach would preserve savings through at least three decades in any historical market environment. Historically, it has given retirees a strong probability of their money lasting a full 30 years.
The rule has evolved considerably since its debut. Bengen revisited his own research in his August 2025 book, A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More (Wiley, 2025), and raised his worst-case SAFEMAX figure to 4.7%. That updated floor assumes a broadly diversified seven-asset-class portfolio with roughly 55% stocks, 40% bonds, and 5% cash, spreading risk across U.S. mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap, and international equities, not just large-cap stocks. Under typical market conditions, Bengen suggests most retirees can safely withdraw closer to 5%.
What Is the OP’s Friend Worried About?
The OP’s friend has two specific concerns. First, he is not confident he can hold himself to a 4% withdrawal rate each year. Unexpected medical bills, home repairs, or other costs could force him to tap his savings more heavily, and he worries those larger withdrawals would deplete his portfolio faster than planned.
His second concern is longevity. Even if he adheres to the rule, he fears it may still fall short. His parents lived well into their 90s, and if he follows a similar path, he could need his savings to support him for 25 years or more. That is not an irrational fear: according to the CDC, Americans who reach age 65 have an average of 19.7 more years of life remaining, meaning a typical 70-year-old could reasonably expect to need income well into his late 80s or early 90s. The stakes of running short are severe.
How Can You Make Sure Your Money Lasts in Retirement?
The OP’s friend has genuine reason to plan carefully, though probably less reason for alarm than he feels. Morningstar’s “State of Retirement Income: 2025” report, published December 3, 2025, set the base-case safe withdrawal rate at 3.9% for a 30-year retirement horizon, up from 3.7% in its prior report. That 30-year assumption is calibrated for someone just beginning retirement at around 65. For a 70-year-old with roughly a 20-year horizon, a shorter drawdown period actually reduces the risk of depletion, meaning the 4% rule may be on the conservative side for someone his age, not the aggressive side. Importantly, Morningstar’s research also found that flexible spending strategies, such as a guardrails approach, delaying Social Security to age 70, or building in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, could push the sustainable starting rate as high as 5.7%.
Still, the concern about spending discipline is worth taking seriously. If there is a realistic chance that living expenses will regularly push withdrawals above the planned rate, that is a signal the retirement budget needs a closer look before leaving work. Entering retirement without confidence in the spending plan creates financial stress that compounds over time, and a cushion above the minimum threshold is always preferable to cutting it close.
The most practical step the OP’s friend can take is to sit down with a financial advisor who specializes in retirement income. A professional can examine his specific portfolio, spending needs, and Social Security timing to build a personalized withdrawal strategy, one that goes well beyond generic rules of thumb. At nearly 70, he already has enough clarity on his expenses and life expectancy to make those projections meaningful. Getting expert guidance now, rather than continuing to delay retirement out of vague anxiety, is the step most likely to protect his long-term financial security.
Editor’s note: This pass corrected the description of Bengen’s updated portfolio model from a simple equity-weighting figure to his actual seven-asset-class mix (roughly 55% stocks, 40% bonds, 5% cash), clarified that his 4.7% figure is a worst-case SAFEMAX floor with a normal-conditions rate closer to 5%, and added CDC 2024 data showing Americans at 65 have an average of 19.7 more years of life remaining. It also added Morningstar’s finding that flexible strategies can lift the sustainable withdrawal rate to 5.7%.
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