1 in 10 Medicare Advantage Members Just Lost Their Plan for 2026. Switching Back Has a Catch

The non-renewal letter arrives in early October. Your Medicare Advantage plan will not be offered in 2026. You have a few weeks to choose new coverage, and the material from your insurer naturally focuses on replacement plans available in your area. What many beneficiaries do not realize is that a plan termination can also open a temporary guaranteed-issue window to purchase certain Medigap policies without medical underwriting, making it one of the most consequential Medicare decisions they may face.

If you are on Original Medicare with a supplement already, or you are still on an employer plan, you can stop reading. This article is for the roughly 1 in 10 Medicare Advantage members affected by the 2026 plan exits, and for anyone weighing an Advantage plan in the first place.

The scale of the 2026 disruption

A research letter published February 18 in JAMA by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Georgetown University found that roughly 2.9 million Medicare Advantage enrollees, about 1 in 10, are being forced out of their plans for 2026 after a wave of insurer exits. The mean forced disenrollment rate averaged just over 1% from 2018 through 2024, then jumped sharply to 6.9% in 2025 and reached 10% in 2026, based on a sample of 28.6 million enrollees studied by lead author Mark Meiselbach and colleagues.

The disruption is not evenly distributed. Vermont stands as an extreme outlier: 92.2% of its Medicare Advantage enrollees face forced disenrollment, the result of a self-reinforcing spiral in which earlier plan exits drove remaining members onto fewer carriers, eroded those plans’ profitability, and triggered another round of exits. In Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, New Hampshire, and Maryland, at least 40% of enrollees are affected. A companion editorial by RAND Corporation policy researcher Hannah James noted that rural members experienced plan disruption at roughly double the rate of those in urban areas, raising concerns about continuity of specialist care in already underserved markets.

The plans hit hardest skew toward PPOs, smaller carriers, lower star ratings, and rural markets. Nearly every affected enrollee has at least one other Advantage plan available, which is exactly why the harder question gets skipped.

The Medigap catch when you switch back

Federal law gives you a 6-month Medigap Open Enrollment Period that starts the first month you have both Part B and are 65 or older. That window is a one-time opportunity. After it closes, most states allow insurers to use medical underwriting, which means they can reject your application, charge you a higher rate, or impose a pre-existing condition waiting period. That is the trap that quietly turns a $0-premium Advantage plan into a near-irreversible decision for anyone whose health has changed since they first enrolled.

A forced disenrollment can restore certain federal guaranteed-issue Medigap rights. In many cases, beneficiaries whose Medicare Advantage coverage is terminated have a limited period (typically 63 days) to purchase specific Medigap letter plans without underwriting. The exact timing and eligible plan types depend on your circumstances and applicable federal and state regulations. Several states, including New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Maine, provide broader protections than the federal minimums. Before acting, verify your rights with your state insurance department or State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP), not just the carrier.

The math of the choice

The cost comparison for 2026 is concrete. The standard Part B premium is $202.90 per month, up from $185.00 in 2025, and the annual Part B deductible is $283. A Plan G supplement typically adds another $150 to $250 per month depending on age and state. Add a standalone Part D plan and a healthy 70-year-old faces roughly $400 to $500 per month for Original Medicare plus Medigap plus drugs. A replacement $0-premium Advantage plan in the same market looks far cheaper on paper.

That gap can close quickly in a year with serious medical needs. According to KFF, the average enrollment-weighted in-network out-of-pocket maximum for Medicare Advantage enrollees in 2026 is $5,421, while the federal ceiling for in-network services is $9,250. Part D drug costs fall under a separate cap ($2,100 in 2026) and do not count toward the medical out-of-pocket maximum. Out-of-network care may carry different rules entirely depending on the plan type. By contrast, Original Medicare paired with a Medigap Plan G policy generally limits a beneficiary to the annual Part B deductible ($283) plus plan premiums, with Medicare and the supplement covering most approved cost-sharing after that threshold.

For beneficiaries who qualify for guaranteed-issue Medigap rights after a plan termination, the decision extends well beyond next year’s premiums. It is also about whether the flexibility and cost predictability of a supplement makes sense if health needs change later.

The broader financial backdrop matters. The 2026 Social Security COLA was 2.8%, a modest increase that for many retirees was partially offset by the nearly 10% rise in Part B premiums. For beneficiaries facing a forced plan change, those competing pressures make it especially important to compare current costs alongside long-term coverage implications before selecting a replacement.

What to do before the 63 days run out

• Confirm your guaranteed-issue window in writing. Call your state insurance department (not just the carrier) and ask which Medigap letter plans you can buy without underwriting and what your application deadline is. Save the date.
• Price Plan G and high-deductible Plan G side by side with at least three carriers in your ZIP code. The high-deductible version carries a $2,950 annual deductible in 2026 but drops the monthly premium sharply for relatively healthy enrollees who can absorb that upfront exposure.
• If you stay in Advantage, pick a plan whose network includes your current primary care doctor and any specialist you saw in the last 12 months, and re-shop Part D on its own. Auto-enrollment into a successor plan is not a decision.

Editor’s note: This update adds Georgetown University as a co-author of the JAMA research letter, includes the 2026 Part B annual deductible of $283, specifies the high-deductible Plan G annual deductible of $2,950, adds KFF data on the average Medicare Advantage in-network out-of-pocket maximum of $5,421 and the federal ceiling of $9,250, notes the separate $2,100 Part D out-of-pocket cap, and incorporates the RAND-cited finding that rural enrollees faced forced disenrollment at roughly double the urban rate.

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