Humana Reports Third-Quarter Earnings Nov. 6, in the Middle of Open Enrollment. Members Got Their Plan-Change Letters Weeks Earlier. Wall Street Got the Numbers in July
Humana already told investors in July how many members it plans to drop. What your neighbor with a surviving plan has not figured out yet is how quietly the costs on that plan changed before open enrollment closes Dec. 7.
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Humana (NYSE:HUM | HUM Price Prediction) reports Q3 results on Nov. 6, more than three weeks into Medicare Open Enrollment. Executives will talk about membership, medical costs and margins. By that point, a Humana Medicare Advantage member should already have his Annual Notice of Change, the packet explaining key coverage and cost changes taking effect Jan. 1. If it is still sealed on the kitchen counter, he has less time to choose a plan than he thinks.
Wall Street got the big number months ago. On the July 29 earnings call, management said: “For 2027, we anticipate these plan exits will impact approximately 600,000 members.” That works out to roughly 8% of Humana’s nearly 7.2 million total Medicare Advantage members. Of those, 6.45 million were in individual Medicare Advantage plans at the end of Q2.
Members on Original Medicare with a Medigap policy are not affected by Humana’s Medicare Advantage plan changes. Anyone in a Humana Advantage plan should still check the 2027 notice, whether the plan survives or not.
July Told Investors How Deep the Cuts Would Run
Humana expects to recapture “just over 40%” of leaving members, about 240,000 people, in other Humana plans. The exits serve a financial target. The CFO called the top priority “returning to a sustainable margin of at least 3%” by 2028. Management said “the majority of the plan exits were in plans with three and a half or lower ratings.”
Discussing CMS’s decision to end the Part D premium stabilization demonstration, CEO Jim Rechtin said: “The impact is unfortunately going to be more on our members…than it is on us.”
Surviving Plans Can Still Cost More
New 2027 plan data show Humana cutting about 2,400 individual Medicare Advantage plan options. Its average maximum out-of-pocket limit rose about 8%, and Part D deductibles rose about 30%.
So one member loses his plan entirely. His neighbor keeps a Humana option but faces a higher out-of-pocket cap, a bigger drug deductible and steeper copays. That second member may not realize his coverage got more expensive.
A $0 Premium Can Hide a Pricier Year
CMS projects that Medicare Advantage premiums will fall in 2027, and that headline is exactly what lulls members. Take a member whose premium stays at $0. His out-of-pocket maximum rises from $5,000 to $5,500, and his specialist copay climbs from $35 to $50.
- Healthy year with one specialist visit a month: he pays $180 more in copays.
- Sick year with a hospital stay: his worst-case medical bill grows by $500.
Both figures leave out drugs. The Advantage out-of-pocket cap excludes Part D spending, so a larger drug deductible adds on top of the higher ceiling. Every Advantage member also still pays the Part B premium, which runs $202.90 a month in 2026. A $0 plan premium leaves that charge in place.
Nov. 6 Lands After Your Homework Should Start
Open Enrollment closes Dec. 7. When Humana’s executives walk analysts through retention on the earnings call, your own choice should already be taking shape. Three moves matter most:
- Price your bad year. Put the 2026 and 2027 notices side by side. Compare the 2027 medical out-of-pocket maximum, drug deductible, Part D out-of-pocket limit and 12 months of Part B premiums separately. Then run the same comparison against every competing 2027 plan in your county.
- Test the plan against your actual care. Run every prescription through the 2027 formulary. Look up each doctor and hospital in the 2027 directory instead of assuming the network carried over.
- If your plan is going away, check your Medigap rights before you pick another Advantage plan. When a Medicare Advantage plan leaves your area, you get a guaranteed issue right to buy certain Medigap policies without medical underwriting. A member with chronic conditions may never get another clean chance to move back to Original Medicare. Ask your state insurance department which plan letters qualify and how long the window stays open.
Wall Street learned in July that Humana expected about 600,000 members to be affected. Only the fall notice tells each member what that means for his own coverage, and he has until Dec. 7 to act on it.
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Gerelyn Terzo is the author of dividend investing handbook "Dividend Investing Strategies: How to Have Your Cake & Eat It Too." A veteran financial journalist, she covers agri-finance for outlets like Global AgInvesting and the broader stock market and personal finance for 24/7 Wall Street. She began at CNBC and later helped launch Fox Business in New York. Gerelyn currently resides in Woodland Park, Colorado and dabbles in nature photography as a hobby.
