Special Report

Bing Predicts: Each Team's Odds of Winning the Super Bowl

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The New England Patriots were the last team to win back-to-back Super Bowls. They edged the Carolina Panthers on Feb. 1, 2004, then topped the Philadelphia Eagles on Feb. 6, 2005.

Can the defending Super Bowl champions pull it off again?

According to Bing Predicts, New England will win the Feb. 4, 2018 Super Bowl in Minneapolis. This will follow their unprecedented comeback, overtime Super Bowl win over the Atlanta Falcons last February.

This season is at the halfway point, so there’s plenty of football left. So far, there have been a good deal of surprises and crazy football — just like the NFL can deliver. Compared to a league like the NBA, where just four teams have accounted for well over half of all championship wins over the past 70 years, the NFL is certainly less predictable.

However, elements such as successes in previous years, the addition or loss of quality players, injuries, and more can provide meaningful insight into which teams will likely go the distance. There is a reason the Patriots were a popular pick for the Super Bowl at the beginning of last season and the woeful Browns were not. Bing Predicts’ model accounts for all these factors when calculating the likely final records of each NFL team, as well as how the playoff teams would compare against each other.

New England is not exactly a difficult call to make. The Patriots are some kind of special, looking for their sixth Super Bowl championship in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.

Meanwhile, the four teams that have never been to a Super Bowl — the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and of course the Browns — aren’t likely to get there this year. The Texans looked like they might have a shot, thanks to the surprising play of Deshaun Watson, but season-ending injuries to Watson as well as star defensive end J.J. Watt have likely torpedoed Houston’s chances this year.

Check out which teams Bing expects will make the playoffs this year and which have no chance, as well as the predicted season record of each team. We also added for each team the current Vegas odds to win the Super Bowl. Who are you betting on?

Bing’s NFL predictions use team and player statistics and web activity to build a statistical model that takes into account historical data and real-time information (like injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes). Final regular season projections also considers both team strength, as well as that of the remaining opponents in their schedule. Finally, social sentiment adds a unique wisdom-of-the-crowd factor to the model. Learn more about Bing Predicts.

To determine the likelihood of each team winning the Super Bowl, 24/7 Wall St. first relied on Bing’s predicted outcomes for the playoffs, treating teams expected to win more playoffs games as also more likely to win the Super Bowl. After accounting for expected playoff progress, teams were ranked based on projected seeding in the playoffs, and then their projected win totals. Ties between teams with identical records were then broken by the current Las Vegas odds to win the Super Bowl. Remaining ties were broken based on recent game success, injuries, and social sentiment.

Click here to see Bing’s predictions for each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
Click here to see all Bing weekly NFL predictions.

32. Cleveland Browns
> Predicted record: 4-12
> Current record: 0-8
> Vegas odds to win SB: 2,500 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The rebuilding era continues on the shores of Lake Erie where the Browns — whose gridiron luminaries include Paul Brown and Jim Brown — have not been to the playoffs since the 2002-2003 season, and their last playoff win was on Jan. 1, 1995, over the New England Patriots. The Browns’ most urgent need is at quarterback, and unbelievably, in the last two drafts they passed up on Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz and Houston’s Deshaun Watson, two of the best young signal-callers in the NFL.

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31. San Francisco 49ers
> Predicted record: 4-12
> Current record: 0-8
> Vegas odds to win SB: 2,500 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

Once a shoe-in to make this postseason, the 49ers (0-8) have basically no shot at making it to the Super Bowl, or even the postseason this year. The 49ers have played in six Super Bowls, winning five of them (1981, 1984, 1988, 1989, 1994). Their most recent appearance was in 2013, when they lost to the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is no Joe Montana, but his acquisition this week makes the 49ers’ future much brighter.

30. Indianapolis Colts
> Predicted record: 4-12
> Current record: 2-6
> Vegas odds to win SB: 250 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

Including the years they were in Baltimore, the Colts have been to four Super Bowls and won two — in 1971 in Baltimore and in 2007 with Peyton Manning. The Colts’ last visit to the playoffs was after the 2014-2015 season, when they lost to the Patriots in the conference championship 45-7 with Andrew Luck at quarterback. Luck has only played in 22 games since the start of the 2015 season. He’s been out all year, which is a big reason the Colts are 2-6.

29. New York Giants
> Predicted record: 4-12
> Current record: 1-6
> Vegas odds to win SB: 125 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Giants have played in five Super Bowls and won four (1987, 1991, 2008, 2012). Many thought this might be the year they return for the first time since the 2011-2012 season. However, this team (1-6) needs a miracle comeback to even finish at .500. Quarterback Eli Manning, who is 36, can’t do it all. He’s lost most of his wide receivers to injuries this season, including Odell Beckham Jr., who busted his ankle in Week 5 and is done for the season.

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28. New York Jets
> Predicted record: 5-11
> Current record: 4-5
> Vegas odds to win SB: 350 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Jets Super Bowl-winning quarterback was Joe Namath. That was in the 1968-1969 season, and was their only trip to the Super Bowl. They have not been to the playoffs since they reached the AFC championship game in 2010 and 2011. That’s not likely to change this year with the Jets off to a 4-5 start. They’ve traded or cut many key players, including defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson, linebacker David Harris, and wide receiver Eric Decker. Maybe general manager Mike Maccagnan has a good long-range plan — it’s just tough to see. Maybe Thursday night’s 34-21 win over a favored Buffalo team can point them in the right direction.

27. Cincinnati Bengals
> Predicted record: 5-11
> Current record: 3-4
> Vegas odds to win SB: 66 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Bengals’ string of five straight trips to the playoffs was snapped last season. Of course, they lost all five of those postseason games. Their last playoff win was on on Jan. 6, 1991, over the Houston Oilers, who are now the Tennessee Titans. They’ve made two trips to the Super Bowl (1982 to 1989), losing both times to the 49ers. After a 3-4 start, with quarterback Andy Dalton getting off to the slowest of starts (four interceptions and zero touchdowns in the opener), it’s unlikely the Bengals will make it back to the playoffs.

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26. Denver Broncos
> Predicted record: 5-11
> Current record: 3-4
> Vegas odds to win SB: 50 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Broncos have been to eight Super Bowls, winning three (1998, 1999, 2016). Not much chance of a return trip this year after a 3-4 start. Quarterback Trevor Siemian has been benched, and Brock Osweiler will start on Sunday at Philadelphia. Osweiler started seven games for the Broncos in 2015-2016, when Peyton Manning was injured. Manning returned, took the Broncos to Super Bowl glory and then retired to a life of filming entertaining TV commercials.

25. Green Bay Packers
> Predicted record: 5-11
> Current record: 4-3
> Vegas odds to win SB: 33 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

Woe are the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. His broken collarbone may have ended the Packers postseason hopes for the first time since 2009. Green Bay (4-3) is in second in the NFC North but hasn’t won a game without Rodgers, who was injured in a game against Minnesota in October. The Packers own the distinction of winning the first two Super Bowls, in 1967 to 1968. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy twice more — in 1997 and 2011, the latter with Rodgers at quarterback.

24. Arizona Cardinals
> Predicted record: 7-9
> Current record: 3-4
> Vegas odds to win SB: 125 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

This is a team with one Super Bowl appearance (2009), which they lost in a close game to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cardinals have punched a postseason ticket four times in the last nine seasons, including most recently in 2016, when they lost to the Panthers in the NFC championship game behind a resurgent season from quarterback Carson Palmer. Now, after a 3-4 start, they’re expected to be on the outside looking in come playoff time. Palmer broke his left arm on Oct. 22 and is not expected to return this season. Neither is running back David Johnson, who has a dislocated wrist.

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23. Chicago Bears
> Predicted record: 7-9
> Current record: 3-5
> Vegas odds to win SB: 125 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Bears have been to the Super Bowl twice, winning it in 1986 with Mike Ditka as coach and Jim McMahon at quarterback. Seems so long ago. They lost to the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl in 2007. They haven’t been to the playoffs since the 2010-2011 season when they beat the Seahawks in the opening round and lost to the Packers in the NFC championship game. The Bears (3-5) are the weakest team in a perennially strong NFC North.

22. Los Angeles Chargers
> Predicted record: 7-9
> Current record: 3-5
> Vegas odds to win SB: 66 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Chargers Super Bowl chances are highly unlikely, as are their chances of making it to the postseason for the first time since 2013-2014. They have one Super Bowl appearance — a one-sided loss to the 49ers on Jan. 29, 1995, when the team was in San Diego. First-year coach Anthony Lynn has the relocated Chargers off to a disappointing 3-5 start. Quarterback Philip Rivers is fifth in passing yards at 2,028, but he can’t win alone.

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21. Atlanta Falcons
> Predicted record: 7-9
> Current record: 4-3
> Vegas odds to win SB: 20 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

It was a Super Bowl nightmare for the Falcons in February, when they were up 28-9 over the Patriots at the end of the third quarter only to end up losing in overtime. Now, if Bing is correct, the Falcons will not even make it back to the postseason. They won their first three, then lost three, are 4-3, and in third place in the AFC South. The Falcons are not the same team as a year ago.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Predicted record: 8-8
> Current record: 2-5
> Vegas odds to win SB: 150 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Buccaneers haven’t been to the playoffs since the 2007-2008 season and haven’t notched a postseason win since they won the Super Bowl over the Oakland Raiders in the 2002-2003 season. With a 2-5 record now and in last place in the AFC South, the Bucs aren’t going anywhere after the regular season except to the golf course. It has been a rough start for the team that has high hopes for quarterback Jameis Winston. He’s been hot and cold, but it’s the defense that’s been holding the Bucs back.

19. Miami Dolphins
> Predicted record: 8-8
> Current record: 4-3
> Vegas odds to win SB: 125 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Dolphins don’t have a great Super Bowl history, with five trips and only two wins, both under coach Don Shula. Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino only got to a Super Bowl once (1985) and lost to the 49ers. The Dolphins last postseason win was an overtime victory over the Colts on Dec. 30, 2000. If Bing is correct, they won’t be back this year. They are 4-3, third in the AFC East. Quarterback Jay Cutler, who missed one start with cracked ribs, is expected to start against Oakland on Sunday.

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18. Houston Texans
> Predicted record: 8-8
> Current record: 3-4
> Vegas odds to win SB: 33 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Texans have made it to the postseason in four of the last six seasons. They beat the Raiders in a wild card game on Jan. 7, 2017, and then lost the next week to the Patriots. It’s unlikely they will return this year after a 3-4 start and the loss of defensive end J.J. Watt, the heart and soul of the defense. The future, however, couldn’t be brighter because of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is tied for the NFL lead with 19 touchdowns.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Predicted record: 8-8
> Current record: 4-3
> Vegas odds to win SB: 33 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Jaguars have made it to the playoffs six times but haven’t made a postseason appearance since 2007-2008. Their last playoff win was on Jan. 5, 2008, when they beat the Steelers in the wild card game. At 4-3 midway through the season, they have a shot at the playoffs, although Bing doesn’t predict it. Jaguars management has put together a talented roster, including quarterback Blake Bortles, who is young and appears to be trending up, as well as rookie running back Leonard Fournette.

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16. Carolina Panthers
> Predicted record: 8-8
> Current record: 5-3
> Vegas odds to win SB: 33 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Panthers’ Super Bowl loss to the Broncos on Feb. 7, 2016 was tough for them to handle. They didn’t even make it back to the postseason last year and aren’t expected to again this year if Bing is spot on. Quarterback Cam Newton has been up and down leading up to the 5-3 record, but the defense is ranked second in the NFL, allowing just 264.0 yards per game.

15. Dallas Cowboys
> Predicted record: 8-8
> Current record: 4-3
> Vegas odds to win SB: 25 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

Troy Aikman led the Cowboys to Super Bowl wins in 1993, 1994, and 1996. Dallas had also won it all under Roger Staubach in 1972 and 1978. It’s been a while, but the Cowboys aren’t expected to return to the playoffs this year, according to Bing. They’re at 4-3 and second in the NFC East. Dak Prescott has quickly become a fan favorite, but the quarterback needs a little seasoning.

14. Baltimore Ravens
> Predicted record: 9-7
> Current record: 4-4
> Vegas odds to win SB: 66 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

The Ravens have earned postseason berths in six of the last nine seasons, with their last playoff win on Jan. 3, 2015, over the Steelers. They are 2-for-2 in the Super Bowl, with wins in 2001 and 2013. Memories. Don’t look for a return after a 4-4 start, which is good enough for second in the AFC North. Quarterback Joe Flacco is not having a great year with more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (6).

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13. Los Angeles Rams
> Predicted record: 9-7
> Current record: 5-2
> Vegas odds to win SB: 18 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: NO

New coach Sean McVay has made his mark, leading the Rams to a 5-2 record so far, but he’s not a miracle worker. Don’t expect the Rams to make the playoffs if Bing’s prediction is correct, even though they are tied with the Seahawks for first in the AFC West. The Rams haven’t been to the postseason since 2005. When they were in St. Louis, the Rams won the Super Bowl in 2000 after losing in two previous appearances.

12. Washington Redskins
> Predicted record: 9-7
> Current record: 3-4
> Vegas odds to win SB: 66 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

While the Redskins have a rich Super Bowl tradition appearing five times and winning three NFL titles (1983, 1988, 1992), they haven’t won a playoff game since Jan. 7, 2006, when they beat the Buccaneers. Still, Bing predicts they will make the playoffs this season, even if it is for a wild card game. True, they are 3-4 and third in the NFC East, but the second-half schedule is favorable because they play five teams with losing records. Quarterback Kirk Cousins and the offense are in the middle of the pack, so is the defense.

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11. Oakland Raiders
> Predicted record: 10-6
> Current record: 3-5
> Vegas odds to win SB: 50 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

The Raiders will sneak back into the playoffs with a wild card berth because of a 10-6 record, according to Bing. Back in the days of dominance and the mystique of owner Al Davis, the Raiders won Super Bowls in 1977, 1981 and 1984. Last year, the Raiders made it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2003, losing to the Texans in the first round. They are 3-5 at the midway point, so Bing is taking a leap of faith. Quarterback Derek Carr has thrown five touchdowns and four interceptions in the last three games.

10. Detroit Lions
> Predicted record: 10-6
> Current record: 3-4
> Vegas odds to win SB: 50 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

Bing projects the Lions (3-4) as a wild card team despite the fact they have a losing record and they lack a running game. They’ve got quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is among the best in the league, but he has never won a playoff game (0-3). They’ve made it to the postseason in three of the last six seasons. The Lions won NFL championships in 1935, 1952, 1953 and 1957, long before the first Super Bowl was played. Since 1957, they have won just one playoff game — on Jan. 5, 1992, when they routed the Dallas Cowboys.

9. Buffalo Bills
> Predicted record: 10-6
> Current record: 5-3
> Vegas odds to win SB: 25 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

The Bills own possibly the worst Super Bowl record — four trips (1991-1994) and no wins. Their current playoff drought dates back to the 1999 season with their last postseason win on Dec. 30, 1995 over Miami. According to Bing’s prediction, the Bills will earn a wild card berth with a 10-6 record. The offense gets a huge boost from running back LeSean McCoy, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor has thrown 10 touchdown passes and run for another against just two interceptions on the way to a 5-3 record. He got roughed up Thursday night when the Jets sacked him seven times as the Bills were upset 34-21.

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8. Tennessee Titans
> Predicted record: 9-7
> Current record: 4-3
> Vegas odds to win SB: 33 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

The Titans (4-3) will pull ahead of Jacksonville (4-3) and win the AFC South with a 9-7 record, according to Bing. The Titans haven’t made it to the playoffs since the 2008-2009 season and haven’t won a playoff game since a 20-17 wild card win over the Ravens on Jan. 3, 2004. In their only trip to the Super Bowl, they lost to the St. Louis Rams after the 1999-2000 season. The Titans defense and offense are in the middle of the NFL pack.

7. New Orleans Saints
> Predicted record: 9-7
> Current record: 5-2
> Vegas odds to win SB: 16 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

After an 0-2 start, the Saints (5-2) have fought back and are projected by Bing to finish 9-7 and win the NFC South over the Panthers (5-3). New Orleans has made just one Super Bowl appearance — a win over the Colts in 2010. They’ve made it to the postseason in four of the last eight years. The 38-year-old Drew Brees has thrown 11 touchdown passes and just four interceptions, while running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have helped boost the offense.

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6. Kansas City Chiefs
> Predicted record: 11-5
> Current record: 6-2
> Vegas odds to win SB: 8 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

The Chiefs wowed the NFL with a red-hot start this season. Bing predicts that Kansas City (6-2) will win the AFC West, finishing 11-5. The Chiefs lost the first Super Bowl to the Packers but won three years later in 1970, when they beat the Vikings. Since 1994, they’ve had just one playoff win, a wild card victory over the Texans in 2016. Quarterback Alex Smith is second to Tom Brady in passing yards with 2,181, while rookie running back sensation Kareem Hunt leads the NFL with 763 rushing yards.

5. Minnesota Vikings
> Predicted record: 13-3
> Current record: 6-2
> Vegas odds to win SB: 16 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

The Vikings, who are projected by Bing to win the NFC North with a 13-3 record, have been to four Super Bowls without a win. Their last appearance was in 1977. They’d love to play the big game in their home stadium come Feb. 4. Credit excellent coaching with getting the Vikings (6-2) through injuries to quarterbacks and other key players. Whoever plays at quarterback for the Vikings seems to find a way to succeed. Plus, the defense is third in the NFL, allowing just 282.1 yards per game.

4. Seattle Seahawks
> Predicted record: 10-6
> Current record: 5-2
> Vegas odds to win SB: 10 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

The Seahawks (5-2) are projected by Bing to pull away from the Los Angeles Rams (5-2) and win the NFC West with a 10-6 record. They’re also predicted to lose to the Eagles in the NFC championship game. The Seahawks have made the playoffs five straight years and won the Super Bowl in 2014 with Russell Wilson at quarterback. He’s still the man. They’ve won four straight.

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3. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Predicted record: 11-5
> Current record: 6-2
> Vegas odds to win SB: 7 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

The Steelers have won six Super Bowls in eight tries with the last one in 2009 when Ben Roethlisberger was a second-year quarterback. Bing predicts the Steelers will win the AFC North with an 11-5 record but then lose to the Patriots in the AFC championship game. Pittsburgh (6-2) is a balanced team with a top-four defense and possibly the best running back-wide receiver tandem in the NFL with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.

2. Philadelphia Eagles
> Predicted record: 13-3
> Current record: 7-1
> Vegas odds to win SB: 5 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

The Eagles are projected by Bing to win the NFC championship and then lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. It would be the third Super Bowl trip for the Eagles, who have yet to win one. Philadelphia (7-1) is the only NFL team with one loss, and it is running away with the NFC East title after posting six straight wins. Nothing about this team is a surprise, including the superior play of quarterback Carson Wentz, who is tied with Deshaun Watson for the most touchdown passes in the league with 19 and is in third place in passing yards with 2,063.

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1. New England Patriots
> Predicted record: 11-5
> Current record: 6-2
> Vegas odds to win SB: 4 to 1
> Will make the playoffs: YES

Not really a surprise that Bing has projected the Patriots to win the Super Bowl over Philadelphia. It would be New England’s second straight Super Bowl victory, its third Lombardi Trophy in the last four years, and sixth NFL title overall. The Patriots looked like they may have lost their luster with a 2-2 start, but they’re going strong now after four straight wins (6-2). Tom Brady may be 40, but it doesn’t show. He leads the league in passing yards with 2,541.

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