Despite viewership declining in recent years, the Oscars remain the nation’s most viewed non-football television event. This year’s ceremony – the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ 90th – will likely draw more than 30 million television viewers, based on past years’ ratings.
While many watch the show for the glamour, dresses, and the glitz, for many others, all that matters is who takes home the awards. To paint a clearer picture of who might be the night’s victors, Bing Predicts calculated the projected winners in 23 of the awards’ major categories.
Click here to see who will win the Oscars.
The Golden Globes, which took place this past January, are often an excellent predictor of the Oscars. In the Golden Globes, Gary Oldman won best actor for his performance in “Darkest Hour,” and Frances McDormand won best actress for her work in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Bing Predicts also favors these actors as winners in these categories.
Similarly, Bing Predicts anticipates “The Shape of Water” director Guillermo del Toro to take home the Oscar for best director — as he did at the Golden Globes. He has a 56% chance of doing so, far ahead of the 17% odds of the second most likely winner Christopher Nolan for his work on “Dunkirk.”
The competition in certain categories is a bit tighter. For instance, “The Shape of Water” has 30% odds of taking home best picture, narrowly beating out “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which has 23% odds. Similarly, while “Blade Runner 2049” is favored to win the best visual effects award with 41% odds, it would not be surprising if “War for the Planet of the Apes” wins it with its 35% odds.
Source: Matt Winkelmeyer / Getty Images
1. Best Actor
> Predicted winner: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (56% odds)
> Also likely: Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (21% odds)
> In the running: Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (11% odds)
> Dark horse: Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out (7% odds)
> Long shot: Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. (5% odds)
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Source: John Phillips / Getty Images
2. Best Actress
> Predicted winner: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (56% odds)
> Also likely: Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (17% odds)
> In the running: Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (13% odds)
> Dark horse: Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (8% odds)
> Long shot: Meryl Streep – The Post (6% odds)
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Source: Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics
3. Best Adapted Screenplay
> Predicted winner: Call Me by Your Name (58% odds)
> Also likely: Mudbound (12% odds)
> In the running: Molly’s Game (11% odds)
> Dark horse: Logan (10% odds)
> Long shot: The Disaster Artist (9% odds)
Source: Courtesy of Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
4. Best Animated Feature
> Predicted winner: Coco (70% odds)
> Also likely: Loving Vincent (13% odds)
> In the running: The Boss Baby (7% odds)
> Dark horse: The Breadwinner (6% odds)
> Long shot: Ferdinand (4% odds)
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Source: Courtesy of Gunpowder & Sky
5. Best Animated Short Film
> Predicted winner: Dear Basketball (45% odds)
> Also likely: Lou (22% odds)
> In the running: Garden Party (12% odds)
> Dark horse: Negative Space (11% odds)
> Long shot: Revolting Rhymes (10% odds)
Source: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
6. Best Cinematography
> Predicted winner: Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins (47% odds)
> Also likely: Dunkirk – Hoyte van Hoytema (22% odds)
> In the running: The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen (21% odds)
> Dark horse: Mudbound – Rachel Morrison (7% odds)
> Long shot: Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel (3% odds)
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Source: Christopher Polk / Getty Images
7. Best Director
> Predicted winner: The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro (56% odds)
> Also likely: Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (17% odds)
> In the running: Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig (13% odds)
> Dark horse: Get Out – Jordan Peele (9% odds)
> Long shot: Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson (5% odds)
Source: Courtesy of Le Pacte
8. Best Documentary Feature
> Predicted winner: Faces Places (48% odds)
> Also likely: Last Men in Aleppo (20% odds)
> In the running: Icarus (18% odds)
> Dark horse: Strong Island (8% odds)
> Long shot: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (6% odds)
Source: Courtesy of Kartemquin Films
9. Best Documentary Short Subject
> Predicted winner: Edith+Eddie (47% odds)
> Also likely: Heroin(e) (22% odds)
> In the running: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (16% odds)
> Dark horse: Knife Skills (8% odds)
> Long shot: Traffic Stop (7% odds)
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Source: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
10. Best Film Editing
> Predicted winner: Dunkirk (49% odds)
> Also likely: Baby Driver (22% odds)
> In the running: The Shape of Water (14% odds)
> Dark horse: I, Tonya (8% odds)
> Long shot: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (7% odds)
Source: Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics
11. Best Foreign Language Film
> Predicted winner: A Fantastic Woman – Chile (45% odds)
> Also likely: The Square – Sweden (26% odds)
> In the running: Loveless – Russia (14% odds)
> Dark horse: The Insult – Lebanon (8% odds)
> Long shot: On Body and Soul – Hungary (7% odds)
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Source: Courtesy of Premium Films
12. Best Live Action Short Film
> Predicted winner: DeKalb Elementary (47% odds)
> Also likely: The Silent Child (21% odds)
> In the running: The Eleven O’Clock (13% odds)
> Dark horse: Watu Wote: All of Us (10% odds)
> Long shot: My Nephew Emmett (9% odds)
Source: Courtesy of Focus Features
13. Best Makeup & Hairstyling
> Predicted winner: Darkest Hour (69% odds)
> Also likely: Wonder (19% odds)
> In the running: Victoria & Abdul (12% odds)
Source: Courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures
14. Best Original Score
> Predicted winner: The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat (47% odds)
> Also likely: Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer (19% odds)
> In the running: Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood (18% odds)
> Dark horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams (10% odds)
> Long shot: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell (6% odds)
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Source: Courtesy of Universal Pictures
15. Best Original Screenplay
> Predicted winner: Get Out (30% odds)
> Also likely: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (29% odds)
> In the running: Lady Bird (26% odds)
> Dark horse: The Shape of Water (11% odds)
> Long shot: The Big Sick (4% odds)
Source: Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
16. Best Original Song
> Predicted winner: “Remember Me” – Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez – Coco (41% odds)
> Also likely: “This Is Me” – Benj Pasek, Justin Paul – The Greatest Showman (25% odds)
> In the running: “Mystery of Love” – Sufjan Stevens – Call Me By Your Name (19% odds)
> Dark horse: “Mighty River” – Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (10% odds)
> Long shot: “Stand Up for Something” – Diane Warren, Common – Marshall (5% odds)
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Source: Courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures
17. Best Picture
> Predicted winner: The Shape of Water (30% odds)
> Also likely: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (23% odds)
> Other nominee: Lady Bird (11% odds)
> Other nominee: Get Out (10% odds)
> Other nominee: Call Me by Your Name (9% odds)
> Other nominee: Dunkirk (8% odds)
> Other nominee: The Post (4% odds)
> Other nominee: Phantom Thread (3% odds)
> Other nominee: Darkest Hour (2% odds)
Source: Courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures
18. Best Production Design
> Predicted winner: The Shape of Water (50% odds)
> Also likely: Blade Runner 2049 (24% odds)
> In the running: Beauty and the Beast (11% odds)
> Dark horse: Dunkirk (10% odds)
> Long shot: Darkest Hour (5% odds)
19. Best Sound Editing
> Predicted winner: Dunkirk (51% odds)
> Also likely: Baby Driver (20% odds)
> In the running: Blade Runner 2049 (12% odds)
> Dark horse: The Shape of Water (9% odds)
> Long shot: Star Wars: The Last Jedi (8% odds)
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20. Best Sound Mixing
> Predicted winner: Dunkirk (48% odds)
> Also likely: Baby Driver (23% odds)
> In the running: Blade Runner 2049 (12% odds)
> Dark horse: The Shape of Water (9% odds)
> Long shot: Star Wars: The Last Jedi (8% odds)
Source: Kris Connor / Getty Images
21. Best Supporting Actor
> Predicted winner: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (54% odds)
> Also likely: Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (21% odds)
> In the running: Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World (10% odds)
> Dark horse: Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water (8% odds)
> Long shot: Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (7% odds)
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Source: Vivien Killilea / Getty Images
22. Best Supporting Actress
> Predicted winner: Allison Janney – I, Tonya (53% odds)
> Also likely: Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (27% odds)
> In the running: Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water (9% odds)
> Dark horse: Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread (6% odds)
> Long shot: Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (5% odds)
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Source: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
23. Best Visual Effects
> Predicted winner: Blade Runner 2049 (41% odds)
> Also likely: War for the Planet of the Apes (35% odds)
> In the running: Star Wars: The Last Jedi (12% odds)
> Dark horse: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (7% odds)
> Long shot: Kong: Skull Island (5% odds)
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