Apple's share of $600+ smartphones holding just below 80%

Also, an apology from an Apple analyst. Or something like it.


From a note to clients by BMO’s Tim Long that landed in my inbox Wednesday:

Apple reported June-quarter results that were better than we had expected. iPhone units of 41.3M were below our 43M unit estimate, but ASP of $718 was higher than both we and the Street were expecting, due to a higher mix of iPhone X/8/8 Plus than we were modeling.

AAPL didn’t have a great overall smartphone market share quarter, but the company managed to gain 200–300 bps of share both Y/Y and Q/Q in the important $600+ ASP segment. This success is largely due to the weak Samsung quarter, where the GS9 has faded and the industry awaits the Note 9. AAPL has been able to successfully help the $600+ segment grow, while still maintaining about 80% market share. The new devices coming in September may stress the price elasticity even more…

We make no changes to our Apple model and maintain our Market Perform rating. While ASPs have impressed, we are concerned by the lack of unit growth, which may pressure the subscriber base at some point. We are modeling modest success from the September iPhone lineup, which we reflect in our model with slight unit growth and higher ASPs in FY 2019.

My take: That sentence about the “higher mix of iPhone X/8/8 Plus than we were modeling” is as close an apology as you’re going to get from an Apple analyst for delivering to clients a barrel full of FUD.

See, for example, Analyst: ‘We estimate that Apple had a poor Q2’