D.A. Davidson trims Apple price target to $280

Philip Elmer-DeWitt

But analyst Tom Forte is still bullish, thinks the pullback is overdone.


From a note to clients snagged Friday by StreetInsider:

We are lowering our price target to $280 from $290 to reflect a decrease in our near-term projections on concerns of lower-than-initially expected iPhone unit sales.

Our price target is based on our updated discounted cash flow analysis, including our long-term adj. EBITDA margin forecast of 34.0% (unchanged) versus 28.8% in FY18.

As we have previously stated, we still believe higher ASP’s on its new iPhones could result in upside to our forecast, noting that this year’s least expensive new iPhone (the XR) is 7.5% more expensive than last year’s (the 8).

When considering shares have declined 17.6% since the company reported its September quarter (versus a 2.7% drop in the S&P 500) and management first indicated challenges for iPhone unit sales in emerging markets (Brazil, India, Russia, and Turkey), we believe lower near-term operating performance is already priced into the shares. In fact, we see the recent pullback as overdone, which has created an attractive buying opportunity, in our view.

Maintains Buy rating, lowers price target to $280 from $290. 

My take: At $280, Forte’s target is still nearly Street high.