Banking & Finance

As Greece Fades, Attention Moves To Spain, Italy, Portugal (NBG, GREK, EWP, BBVA, SAN, PT, IRE, EWI, FXE, UUP)

The Greek elections went the way that the market participants were initially hoping for, but now the reality is setting in that Greece may ultimately not be able to stay in the Euro due to its ballooning debt woes and due to its economy.  We initially saw a PIIGS snap back rally ahead of the election, but the ADRs and key funds are giving back much of Friday’s gains.  Here are today’s S&P Chart pivots to watch closely.

The National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) is down almost 5% at $1.73 in New York ADR trading.  Keep in mind that this had recovered some 50% from its lows in the last two weeks or so. The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (AMEX: GREK) is down only 1.6% at $11.65, and that ETF was up a whopping 7.7% late on Friday afternoon.  The gain Friday would have been like the DJIA rallying more than 900 points.   Elsewhere we are seeing erosion in the ETFs and ADRs of the other PIIGS.

The iShares MSCI Spain Index (AMEX: EWP) is down 3.4% at $23.11 as yields are challenging that 7% hurdle that is so important. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE: BBVA) is now down almost 5% at $6.32 and Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: SAN) is down almost 5% at $5.89. The ADRs of Portugal Telecom, SGPS S.A. (NYSE: PT).

Ireland is holding its own with ADRs of The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) trading flat at $5.71. iShares MSCI Italy Index (AMEX: EWI) is down 2.9% at $10.44 after having seen a 10% bounce from the bottom in the last two weeks or so.

Monday’s post-election trading reaction is not bringing help to the Euro either, as the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (AMEX: FXE) is down 0.75% at $124.97 and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (AMEX: UUP) is up 0.6% at $22.64.

Here is some food for thought… What if Germany just decides to exit the Euro?

JON C. OGG