It is far too early to forecast full-year global sales for Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). However, an extrapolation from the first half is useful. Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries for the first half of 2025 were approximately 721,000 units, marking a decrease of about 13% compared to the first half of 2024. Globally, this represents a decline of 72,000 units over six months. If this trend continues, the annual decrease could exceed 100,000 units.
U.S. sales will improve in August and September, as people buy EVs ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit. Tesla’s U.S. sales last year were about 650,000. Through the first quarter of this year, sales were down 7%. If this trend continues, U.S. sales could decrease by about 45,000 for the year.
Tesla’s biggest challenge has been Europe. Its sales fell to just 14,831 units in August, a 22.5% decline compared to a year ago. The drop in most nations in Europe was at least that much during the first half of the year. They were 49% less across the region in April. Across the year, its sales in Europe could be down as much as 25,000 compared to 2024.
In the second quarter of 2025, Tesla sold 128,803 vehicles in China, down 4.3% from 134,607 units in the first quarter and 11.7% less than in the same quarter of last year. China is the largest electric vehicle market in the world.
Tesla does not break out sales in China. However, according to The Wall Street Journal, “Tesla’s market share has declined significantly recently; in May, Tesla sales in China dropped 30% year-on-year.” Analysts say the company sold 657,000 units in all of 2024. If May is any sign, its sales in China could decline by nearly 100,000 this year.
In 2024, Tesla sold 1.79 million vehicles, down 1.1% Based on Elon Musk’s reputation and competition from electric vehicle makers around the world, led by BYD, the number could be much worse this year.
Tesla Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025–2030
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