COVID-19: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL Metro Area Among the Most Dangerous in America

The U.S. reported over 587,000 new cases of coronavirus over the seven days ending November 16, bringing the total count to more than 46.7 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 756,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise, albeit at a slowing rate. In the past week, there were an average of 12.9 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — a decrease from the week prior, when there were an average of 23.8 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While new data shows that the risk of contracting COVID-19 is high in almost every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks and superspreader events. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL metro area consists of just Polk County. As of November 16, there were 18,893.6 confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 Lakeland residents, the 38th highest rate of all 383 metro areas with available data. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 14,487.5 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area, unemployment peaked at 18.0% in May 2020. As of May 2021, the metro area’s unemployment rate was 6.4%.

To determine how the incidence of COVID-19 in the Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL metro area compares to the rest of the country, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked metro areas based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents.To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Florida where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).