UBS Group AG

“We have already achieved the ambition we set early in the integration journey for 2026 with total capital returns to exceed pre-acquisition levels. Over the next three months, we intend to repurchase 1.2 billion dollars of shares, completing our current program.

Credit Suisse integration costs were supposed to cap shareholder returns through 2026; Ermotti just said capital returns have already cleared pre-acquisition levels, with the current repurchase program finishing this quarter. The next question is what size program replaces it, and whether Swiss capital rules let UBS keep the pace.

“September's outcome in the Upper House is very concerning. We have made every effort to engage and contribute constructively to create a basis for a truly democratic process. Our goal has been, and remains, to reach a solution that balances financial stability, taxpayer protection and competitiveness. Unfortunately, the latest proposal on the table also fails to achieve that balance.

Ermotti used the third-quarter earnings call to escalate UBS's standoff with Bern over capital rules, and the bank has already floated moving its headquarters if the proposal sticks. For a $143 billion lender, the fight over how much capital it must hold shapes buybacks, returns and where the business is domiciled.

“With a year-to-date return on CET1 capital of 17%, we are increasingly confident in our ability to outperform our 2026 exit-rate return target. And we remain on track to achieve our exit rate cost/income ratio target of less than 70%.

Ermotti is now guiding above UBS's own 2026 return target, with the Credit Suisse integration costs still running through the P&L and Swiss lawmakers pushing for tougher capital rules. The cost/income goal of under 70% is the number to hold him to.