Alcoa Corp

Alcoa delivered a strong fourth-quarter 2025 beat, posting adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share against a Wall Street consensus of $1.01, a 24.75% positive surprise, while revenue of $3.45 billion cleared estimates of $3.25 billion by 6.22%, even as the top line fell 13.3% from a year earlier. The primary engine behind the outperformance was a sharp sequential recovery in aluminum prices combined with surging operational momentum, with adjusted EBITDA excluding special items climbing $276 million sequentially to $546 million. GAAP net income of $226 million absorbed a $144 million goodwill impairment charge and a $70 million mark-to-market loss on Ma'aden shares, cushioned by a $133 million tax benefit from reversing a valuation allowance on Brazilian deferred tax assets. Alcoa set annual production records at five aluminum smelters and one alumina refinery during the period. Looking ahead, the company guided 2026 aluminum production to 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons, though shares retreated as investors weighed near-term headwinds, including roughly $100 million in combined sequential EBITDA pressure in Q1 2026 from absent CO2 compensation and elevated San Ciprián restart costs.