Alcoa Corp
Q3 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.45%.
Did AA Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Alcoa delivered a disappointing third quarter, missing on both the top and bottom lines as surging one-time charges and mounting tariff costs weighed heavily on results. The aluminum giant posted an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share, falling short of the $0.01 consensus estimate by 350.00%, while revenue of $3.00 billion trailed the $3.13 billion analyst forecast by 4.27%, even as sales climbed 5.8% year over year. The quarter's defining pressure point was a $895.00 million restructuring charge tied to the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery in Australia, which, despite being partially offset by an $786.00 million gain on the Ma'aden joint venture sale, dragged adjusted EBITDA down to $270.00 million from $313.00 million in Q2. Looking ahead, management faces a further headwind in Q4, with tariff costs on Canadian aluminum imports expected to rise by approximately $50.00 million sequentially, though favorable alumina cost dynamics and the absence of asset retirement obligation charges are expected to provide roughly $80.00 million in offsetting relief for the Alumina segment.
- Alumina production increased 4% sequentially to 2,453 kmt due to lower maintenance at Australian refineries
- Aluminum production increased 1% sequentially to 542 kmt due to San Ciprián smelter restart progress
- Higher aluminum prices partially offset lower alumina prices
- Midwest premium earned on U.S. aluminum production more than offset the net unfavorable impact of Midwest premium and tariff costs on Canadian imports
- Increased tariff costs on imported aluminum from Canada pressured results
- Charges to increase asset retirement obligations primarily in Brazil
- Unfavorable currency impacts weighed on sequential results
- Year-to-date production records set at five aluminum smelters in Canada, Norway, Australia, and the U.S.
“During the third quarter, we continued to deliver on operational stability and the optimization of our portfolio.”
Alcoa CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Alcoa expects 2025 total Alumina segment production of 9.5–9.7 million metric tons and shipments of 13.1–13.3 million metric tons, unchanged from prior projections. Aluminum segment production is expected at 2.3–2.5 million metric tons with shipments of 2.5–2.6 million metric tons. For Q4 2025, the Alumina segment expects approximately $80 million in favorable sequential impacts from the absence of asset retirement obligation charges, higher shipments, and lower maintenance costs. The Aluminum segment expects approximately $20 million in unfavorable sequential impacts from San Ciprián restart inefficiencies and lower third-party energy sales, partially offset by higher shipments. Tariff costs on U.S. imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $50 million sequentially, while alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by approximately $45 million sequentially. Operational tax expense for Q4 2025 is expected to approximate $40 million to $50 million.
AA YoY Financials
AA Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.