Alcoa (AA) Q3 2026 Earnings
How Did AA Stock React to Q3 2026 Earnings?
Did AA Beat Earnings? Q3 2026 Results
Yes. Alcoa reported Q3 2026 earnings of $1.82 a share on Oct 15, 2026, beating the $1.49 consensus estimate by 22.0%. Revenue was $3.7B against a $3.8B estimate.
Alcoa delivered a sharply stronger-than-expected third quarter in 2026, posting adjusted EPS of $1.82 against a consensus estimate of $1.49, a beat of 22.05%, even as revenue of $3.70 billion edged just below the $3.76 billion analyst forecast. Year-over-year, revenue climbed 23.7%, reflecting broad demand tailwinds across the aluminum supply chain. The primary driver of the earnings strength was operational momentum in both segments, with alumina production surging 11% sequentially following improved stability at the Pinjarra refinery and aluminum output rising on the back of the completed Alumar smelter restart in Brazil. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $789.00 million for the quarter. Strategically, the period was defined by Alcoa's progress on its AliGroup acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets, a deal analysts have cited as a meaningful catalyst for future cost-curve improvement and earnings upside. Looking ahead, management reaffirmed full-year production targets for both segments while flagging roughly $60.00 million in combined headwinds for the Aluminum segment in Q4 from higher raw material costs and alumina pricing pressures.
- Alumina production increased 11% sequentially to 2,467 kmt due to improved stability at Pinjarra refinery
- Aluminum production increased 2% sequentially to 649 kmt due to capacity restarts and completion of Alumar smelter restart
- Improved production costs in both Alumina and Aluminum segments
- Higher average realized alumina prices supported Alumina segment third-party revenue increase of 7% sequentially
- Lower aluminum prices and shipments offset gains, resulting in 9% sequential decrease in Aluminum segment revenue
- Favorable mark-to-market changes on Ma'aden shares and energy contracts
“During the third quarter, we advanced the AliGroup acquisition, delivered improved refinery performance, and increased production across our smelting portfolio. As we look ahead, we remain focused on strengthening safety performance, sustaining operational stability, and building on this momentum as we work toward closing the AliGroup acquisition in the first half of 2027.”
Alcoa CEO, on the earnings call
What Is Alcoa's Outlook?
Alcoa reaffirms 2026 Alumina segment production and shipment projections of 9.5-9.6 million metric tons and 11.5-11.6 million metric tons, respectively. Aluminum segment production and shipment projections are reaffirmed at 2.4-2.6 million metric tons and 2.6-2.8 million metric tons, respectively. For Q4 2026, the company expects to maintain strong operational performance with higher production and shipments in both segments. Alumina segment Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be consistent sequentially. Aluminum segment Adjusted EBITDA faces approximately $30 million in unfavorable higher raw material costs and planned maintenance, plus approximately $30 million in unfavorable alumina costs. Other income is expected to increase by approximately $20 million due to higher interest earned on cash held for the AliGroup acquisition. Full-year interest expense is expected to approximate $185 million. Q4 operational tax expense is expected at $65-$75 million.
AA YoY Financials
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.7B | $3.0B | +23.7% |
| Gross Profit | $882.0M | $140.0M | +530.0% |
| Operating Income | $573.0M | $51.0M | +1,023.5% |
| Net Income | $483.0M | $232.0M | +108.2% |
AA Revenue by Segment
When Does Alcoa Report Next?
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.