Companies /Basic Materials

Alcoa Corp

NYSE: AA Aluminum
$51.19
â–² $1.47 (+2.96%) today
Markets closed · 2:07am ET

Q1 2025 Earnings

Reported Apr 16, 2025, 4:11pm ET · SEC source
$2.15
Beat +57.16%
EPS · est. $1.37
$3.4B
Miss −2.63%
Revenue · est. $3.5B
+10.8%
Beating market
AA vs S&P since report
1 quarter
Consecutive EPS misses

Market Reaction

% change · around the report
−12%−8%−4%0Apr 16Apr 17report 4:11pm ETearnings+0.1%−10.7%
−12%−8%−4%0Apr 16Apr 17earnings+0.1%−10.7%
AA −10.7%S&P 500 +0.1%
−12%−8%−4%0Apr 16Apr 17report 4:11pm ETearnings−0.0%−10.7%
−12%−8%−4%0Apr 16Apr 17earnings−0.0%−10.7%
AA −10.7%NASDAQ −0.0%
−10%−5%0+5%Apr 15Apr 24report 4:11pm ETearnings+4.3%+5.0%
−10%−5%0+5%Apr 15Apr 24earnings+4.3%+5.0%
AA +5.0%S&P 500 +4.3%
−10%−5%0+5%Apr 15Apr 24report 4:11pm ETearnings+5.5%+5.0%
−10%−5%0+5%Apr 15Apr 24earnings+5.5%+5.0%
AA +5.0%NASDAQ +5.5%
−6.98%
Day of report
−0.09%
Next session
+10.25%
One week
+23.46%
30 days

S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +12.62%.

Did AA Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results

Alcoa delivered a sharply stronger-than-expected first quarter in 2025, posting adjusted earnings of $2.15 per share against a consensus estimate of $1.37, a 57.16% beat, as surging aluminum prices and significantly lower alumina costs powered a 171% sequential surge in net income to $548.00 million. Revenue of $3.37 billion rose 27.0% year over year but came in just below the $3.46 billion consensus estimate, a modest 2.63% miss attributed largely to lower shipments and timing factors. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 26% sequentially to $855.00 million, underscoring the broad-based margin improvement even as the newly enacted 25% U.S. Section 232 tariff on Canadian aluminum imports introduced roughly $20.00 million in incremental costs during the quarter. Looking ahead, management flagged sequential headwinds of $90.00 million from those tariffs and $15.00 million in San Ciprián smelter restart costs in Q2, though a favorable $165.00 million alumina cost impact is expected to cushion the blow, with full-year production guidance held unchanged across both segments.

Key Takeaways
  • Higher aluminum prices drove increased profitability
  • Net benefit from lower alumina prices improved Aluminum segment margins
  • Higher volumes and price from bauxite offtake and supply agreements
  • Non-recurrence of Q4 2024 Kwinana refinery curtailment restructuring charge of $82 million
  • Continued progress on Alumar, Brazil smelter restart

“During the first quarter, we maintained our pace of delivering on key operational and capital allocation objectives, including forming the joint venture to support our San Ciprián operations and repositioning debt in Australia.”

Alcoa CEO, on the earnings call

Forward Guidance & Outlook

Alcoa expects 2025 total Alumina segment production of 9.5–9.7 million metric tons and shipments of 13.1–13.3 million metric tons, unchanged from prior projections. Aluminum segment production is expected at 2.3–2.5 million metric tons and shipments at 2.6–2.8 million metric tons, also unchanged. For Q2 2025, the Alumina segment is expected to maintain Q1's strong performance. The Aluminum segment expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $90 million from Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminum and $15 million from San Ciprián smelter restart costs, partially offset by favorable alumina costs of $165 million. Other expenses are expected to increase approximately $10 million sequentially due to equity investment losses. Operational tax benefit for Q2 2025 is expected to approximate $50–$60 million.

AA YoY Financials

Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 · SEC filings Q1 2024 Q1 2025
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B$2.7B$3.4BRevenue$131.3M$548.0MNet Income
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0BRevenueNet Income

AA Revenue by Segment

Aluminum$1.9B
Alumina$1.2B

Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.