Alcoa Corp
Q2 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +2.43%.
Did AA Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Alcoa delivered a mixed second quarter for 2025, <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/07/16/live-updates-will-alcoa-nyse-aa-beat-earnings-after-the-bell/">falling short on the bottom line</a> while edging past revenue expectations as tariff costs took a heavy toll on profitability. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.39, missing the $0.51 consensus estimate by 23.72%, even as revenue of $3.02 billion topped forecasts by 1.89% and climbed 6.6% year over year. The primary culprit was $115 million in additional costs tied to U.S. Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports, a burden that helped drag adjusted EBITDA down by $542 million sequentially to $313 million. Alcoa partially offset the damage by redirecting Canadian smelter output to international customers, and strong operating cash flow of $488 million offered a measure of reassurance. Looking ahead, the company flagged an estimated $90 million sequential tariff headwind in Q3, though a roughly $100 million favorable alumina cost impact and an expected $780 million gain from the completed Ma'aden joint venture sale should provide meaningful offsets.
- Lower alumina and aluminum prices reduced revenue and profitability sequentially
- U.S. Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports cost approximately $115 million in Q2
- Aluminum production increased 1% sequentially to 572,000 metric tons due to Alumar Brazil smelter restart progress
- Alumina third-party shipments increased 4% sequentially due to timing and increased trading
- Strong cash generation with $488 million operating cash flow, a $413 million sequential improvement
- Midwest premium increases were more than offset by lower LME prices on aluminum
“In the second quarter of 2025, we continued our relentless execution on key objectives, which included progressing the sale of our interest in the joint venture with Ma'aden.”
Alcoa CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Alcoa expects 2025 total Alumina segment production of 9.5–9.7 million metric tons and shipments of 13.1–13.3 million metric tons (unchanged). Aluminum segment production guidance is unchanged at 2.3–2.5 million metric tons, but shipment projections were reduced to 2.5–2.6 million metric tons (down 0.1–0.2 million metric tons) due to the delayed San Ciprián smelter restart. For Q3 2025, the Alumina segment expects ~$20 million in sequential favorable impacts from lower maintenance costs and efficiencies. The Aluminum segment expects ~$90 million sequential unfavorable tariff impact but ~$100 million favorable alumina cost impact. Q3 operational tax expense is expected at $50–$60 million. The San Ciprián smelter is expected to generate a 2025 net pre-tax loss of $90–$110 million with ~$110–$130 million in associated cash used by operations. Alcoa expects to recognize ~$780 million gain from the Ma'aden divestiture in Q3 2025. The San Ciprián restart is expected to be completed by mid-2026.
AA YoY Financials
AA Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.