Q3 25 EPS
$0.89
MISS 15.93%
Est. $1.06
Q3 25 Revenue
$1.74B
MISS 5.50%
Est. $1.84B
vs S&P Since Q3 25
-30.6%
TRAILING MARKET
MAT -21.4% vs S&P +9.2%
Market Reaction
Did MAT Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Mattel delivered a disappointing third quarter, missing Wall Street on both the top and bottom lines as shifting retailer ordering patterns weighed heavily on results. The toymaker posted adjusted EPS of $0.89, falling 15.93% short of the $1.06 conse… Read more Mattel delivered a disappointing third quarter, missing Wall Street on both the top and bottom lines as shifting retailer ordering patterns weighed heavily on results. The toymaker posted adjusted EPS of $0.89, falling 15.93% short of the $1.06 consensus estimate and down sharply from $1.14 a year ago, while revenue of $1.74 billion trailed expectations by 5.50% and slid 5.8% year over year. The primary culprit was a 12% decline in North American net sales, driven by industry-wide changes in how retailers are timing their orders, a trend that also pressured other consumer-facing companies this earnings season. Gross margin contracted 310 basis points to 50.0%, compounded by tariff costs, unfavorable foreign exchange, and inflation. Barbie gross billings fell 17% to $413.90 million, while Fisher-Price dropped 19% to $215.40 million, though Hot Wheels provided some relief, growing to $547.20 million. Despite the miss, management reiterated full-year guidance for adjusted EPS of $1.54 to $1.66, citing a significant acceleration in U.S. Retailer orders since the start of Q4.
Key Takeaways
- • Hot Wheels growth drove Vehicles category up 8% as reported
- • Action Figures growth drove Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other category up 11%
- • North America Net Sales declined 12% due to industry-wide shifts in retailer ordering patterns
- • Barbie gross billings declined 17% worldwide
- • Gross margin pressured by unfavorable foreign exchange, inflation, tariff costs, and higher sales adjustments
- • Cost savings from Optimizing for Profitable Growth program partially offset headwinds
- • International segment grew 3% as reported, with EMEA and Asia Pacific contributing growth
MAT YoY Financials
Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024, source: SEC Filings
MAT Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
MAT Revenue by Geography
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“While our US business was challenged in the third quarter by industry-wide shifts in retailer ordering patterns, the fundamentals of our business are strong, with growth in consumer demand for our products across every region. Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, orders from retailers in the US have accelerated significantly and our POS is growing. Looking into the balance of the year, we expect a good holiday season for Mattel and strong topline growth in the fourth quarter. We are reiterating our full year 2025 guidance and are advancing our strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering.”
— Ynon Kreiz, Q3 2025 Earnings Press Release
MAT Earnings Trends
MAT vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
MAT EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
MAT Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
MAT Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 BEAT | $-0.21 | $-0.20 | +4.12% | $862.2M | +6.58% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $0.55 | $0.39 | -28.82% | $1.77B | -3.71% |
| FY Full Year | $1.58 | $1.41 | -10.55% | $5.35B | -1.33% |
| Q3 25 MISS | $1.06 | $0.89 | -15.93% | $1.74B | -5.50% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $0.16 | $0.16 | +1.98% | $1.02B | -3.23% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $-0.10 | $-0.03 | +70.44% | $826.6M | +4.44% |