24/7 Wall St. reviewed the NAR data for the first quarter along with Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment levels by city. The two databases should match one another very well. Each has municipalities defined by metropolitan statistics areas (SMA) as set by the US Office of Management and Budget in 2004.
City unemployment rates are compared to a 9.9% national rate for purposes of this article. Government numbers for joblessness do not include part-time workers looking for full-time jobs or people who have become “unattached” from the work force. These additions would bring the national unemployment rate to 17.1%. That means that if a city has unemployment of 14%, joblessness could be closer to 21%
Home prices were based on NAR indexes for the first quarter of 2010 compared with the full-year 2007, near the top of the housing market.
There are some areas where housing prices have dropped but unemployment has improved, so home values may recover. Honolulu is an example of this. But, most cities with sharp drops in home values are also the hardest hit by the recession’s impact on employment. These areas may take years to get back to “normal” unemployment rates of 5%. In the meantime, home prices will continue to stagnate, or worse, continue to fall because of a lack of buyers.
These are the thirteen cities where, based on home values in 2007 and current unemployment, housing will never return to the levels of three years ago:
1. Riverside, CA. Housing prices are down 52% and unemployment is at 18%
2. Lansing, MI. Housing prices are off 38% and unemployment is 11.8%
3. Palm Coast, FL. Housing prices down 63% and unemployment is 16%
4. Sacramento, CA. Housing prices down 47% and unemployment is 17.5%
5. Orlando, FL. Housing prices down 49% and unemployment is 15%
6. Fort Myers, FL. Housing prices are down 65% and unemployment is 14.2%
7. Grand Rapids, MI. Housing prices are down 30% and unemployment is 14.3%.
8. Reno, NV. Housing prices are down 44% and unemployment is 13.3%.
9. Toledo, OH. Housing prices are down 30% and unemployment is 13%.
10. Boise City, ID. Housing prices are down 34% and unemployment is 9.9%
11. Rockford, IL. Housing prices are down 16% and unemployment is 17.9%
12. Las Vegas, NV. Housing prices are down 51% and unemployment is 13.8%
13. Providence, RI. Home prices down 27% and unemployment is 13.2%
Douglas A. McIntyre
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