Do Prediction Markets translate to the same sort of investing markets as the stock market? It depends upon whom you ask and we wanted to give an unbiased look at the current horse race for teh White House in 2012. All you have to do is to track the daily results on Intrade.com, where real money is committed on potential real life events that are not always financial events. The presidential election is a key prediction market at Intrade.
While the Mitt Romney victory in the Iowa caucus was by a hair and while his Intrade market value is down about 1 point today, the Mitt Romney’s current chance of winning the Republican nomination is about 81.5%.
The other side of the coin is that Barrack Obama’s chance of being re-elected as President is 51.3%.
As far as the current Intrade statistics go in general they are as follows: Democrats 51.7% versus 46.0% for the Republicans. Those figures will likely change daily as there are more than ten months left until election day.
In order to see how these fluctuate through time, we have included a chart for Romney and a Chart for Obama:
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