Pony AI (NASDAQ:PONY) shares have been surging today after the company announced its seventh-generation autonomous driving system and new Robotaxi models at the Shanghai Auto Show. It was founded by ex-Baidu engineers, and it specializes in level 4 (L4) autonomous vehicle technology.
Since it is based in China and trades on the U.S. stock market, it has seen some significant volatility in the past few months. In fact, PONY stock is still down 54.7% in the past year. However, the company’s new announcements and recent comments from President Donald Trump on cutting deals with China have sweetened the deal.
What Happened
Pony AI’s seventh-generation autonomous system is a major announcement since it means a 70% cost reduction in bill-of-materials and an 80% drop in computation costs, along with 68% lower LiDAR expenses. The system has automotive-grade components with better reliability and scalability.
On top of that, it has a Robotaxi lineup with three production-ready models that were developed in partnership with Toyota (bZ4X), BAIC (ARCFOX Alpha T5), and GAC (Aion V). Mass production is slated for mid-2025. Pony AI reported $180.91 million in net loss in its Q4 2024 report, so the cost cuts are mainly why the market is so optimistic here.
Should You Buy?
Buying Pony AI in the current environment is a pretty risky bet. This is a Chinese company, and any tariff escalations will sting since negotiations seem far away. Its recent announcements are unlikely to lead to a sustained rally since the company is deeply unprofitable.
I do like that it doesn’t have significant dilution. Outstanding shares have been around 350 million, and the company has $745 million of cash on its balance sheet with $13 million of debt. But even that will run out before the company gets anywhere close to breakeven if the current rate of losses continues.
Analysts love the Robotaxi and autonomous driving narrative. This is why Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) leaned heavily into it, and the stock gained despite a significant top and bottom line miss yesterday.
Regardless, I don’t think it’s worth paying over 16 times forward sales unless you’re doing a swing trade with the momentum. I’d wait for those cost cuts to start translating into its income statements before buying substantial amounts of PONY in this environment.
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