The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF closed at 574.35 Monday, up 0.2%.
President Trump is threatening to impose 100% tariffs on imports from Russia if it fails to sign a ceasefire with Ukraine within the next 50 days. Total U.S. imports from Russia in 2024 were $3 billion, of which more than 20% was uranium imports.
French President Emmanuel Macron is asking his country’s lawmakers to approve a $4.1 billion increase in defense spending next year and a further $3.5 billion increase in 2027. It’s good news — not great news — for defense contractors, which may benefit from increased arms-buying. The total effect of the spending boosts would be to grow France’s defense budget to about $74.8 billion by 2027.
That’s less than 10% of what the U.S. spends in an average year.
Back to the bad news. Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow downgraded Rivian Automotive (Nasdaq: RIVN) to neutral this morning on “softer long-term R2/R3 assumptions driven by both softer R1 sales and negative US Electric Vehicle and Emissions policy changes.”
“While we remain confident in cost-reduction targets for the R2,” says the analyst, “we no longer have confidence in the required volumes and/or required ASPs.” Rivian stock is down 2.3% in the market’s opening minutes. The Voo is down 0.2%.
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Oh, so close!
After President Trump announced late Thursday that he is increasing tariffs on some Canadian imports to 35%, Mexico (the other member of the tripartite US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement) probably felt like it had dodged a bullet — but not so fast. Over the weekend, the President announced that Mexico will in fact pay higher tariffs, and so will the European Union: 30% each, starting August 1, unless they make quick progress on trade agreements the U.S. is proposing.
At the same time, multiple news outlets report that here at home, the President is making moves to give Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell the boot, citing cost overruns in a renovation project for the Fed’s Washington, D.C., headquarters as grounds for firing “with cause.”
The stock market proverbially abhors uncertainty, and between topsy-turvy tariffs and a potential shake-up at the head of the Fed, we’ve got more uncertainty here than you can shake a proverbial stick at. Little surprise, then, that the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is once again moving lower: down 0.3% premarket.
S&P 500 component company Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST | FAST Price Prediction) “beat by a penny” on Q2 earnings this morning, reporting $0.29 per share. Sales for the quarter also edged past estimates at $2.08 billion, an encouraging sign for investors.
In further good news, Seaport Global Securities analyst Jeff Cantwell upgraded shares of two large financial companies and S&P 500 component companies: PayPal (Nasdaq: PYPL) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA). PayPal goes to neutral with an improved forecast for 2025 and 2026 earnings. MasterCard gets upgraded to buy with a $616 price target.
Cantwell notes both MasterCard and rival Visa (NYSE: V) pulled back in June, and both stocks now deserve a look from investors. The analyst sees the credit card companies partnering with cryptocurrency providers, and predicts this will help drive growth into 2026.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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