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A Positive Month for the S&P 500
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF closed at 541.76 Friday, down 0.1% for the day — but up 6.2% for the month of May.
U.S. Steel Acquisition is On Again
Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper is reporting that President Trump will approve Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel (NYSE: X), with conditions. Specifically, Nippon Steel will sign a “national security agreement” with the U.S. government, and also agree not to reduce U.S. Steel’s production capacity without the approval of U.S. authorities.
Could Deere Be Getting Ready to Run?
Citigroup lowered its price target on S&P 500 component company Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) to $525 with a neutral rating on the stock. On the plus side, Citi predicted 2025 will be the trough year in the cyclical agriculture machinery market, so things could get better.
Deere stock is up 0.8% despite the price target reduction, but the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is still down 0.2%.
The Tariffs Effect
President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs are having an effect on trade flows — whether that effect is good or bad may be in the eye of the beholder, or the buyer.
Advance indicators reports show a dramatic narrowing in the U.S. trade deficit in April, down to -$87.6 billion, the narrowest trade deficit in 19 months, and barely half the record-wide deficit of -$162.3 billion seen in March. April imports were lower than experts predicted, and exports higher.
45 minutes into the trading day, the Voo’s decline has also narrowed, now down 0.1%.
This article will be updated throughout the day, so check back often for more daily updates.
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) closed up 0.4% on Thursday, spurred higher by reports that the court action might force President Trump to short-circuit his use of executive orders to impose higher tariffs around the world. By the end of the day, though, these hopes had faded. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued a temporary restraining order preventing the tariffs from being lifted pending an appeals process that could take this dispute all the way to the Supreme Court.
And now, there’s even more trade news for investors to digest.
This morning, in a post on Truth Social, the President seemed to threaten the reimposition of 145% tariffs, imposed on China in April but then lifted (for the most part) in May. “So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!,” posted the President, accusing China of having “TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US.”
The President didn’t actually finish the thought, and state outright that Chinese tariffs are going back up… but the sentiment was implied, and now investors are spooked again. In premarket trading, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is trading down 0.3% from Thursday’s close.
Earnings
S&P 500 component company Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) reported mixed earnings last night, with sales above consensus at $23.4 billion, but profits well below analysts’ forecast $1..69. Adjusted earnings for fiscal Q1 2025 were only $1.55. Dell did, however, forecast significantly better sales for Q2 2025, and better earnings as well: $2.25 per share at the midpoint.
In happier news, S&P 500 component Costco (Nasdaq: COST) reported a top-and-bottom line earnings beat last night. Q3 2025 profits came in heavier than expected at $4.28 per share, and sales likewise exceeded expectations at $63.2 billion.
Analyst Calls
About a half dozen analysts have already raised their price targets in response to Dell’s news. Morgan Stanley says it expects Dell’s momentum to build into the rest of this year, and values Dell stock at $135 a share. UBS observed that Dell enjoyed strong sales to AI companies in the quarter, and values the stock at $150.
Costco got two price target hikes, and only one lowering. Evercore ISI said Costco is “proving its mettle in a challenging retail landscape.” Bernstein said Costco is quite simply the highest quality company in its coverage.
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