Live: Will Coinbase (COIN) Post a Big Earnings Beat After Hours?

A billion-dollar profit and 60% EBITDA margins weren’t enough. Flat MTUs and soft subscription momentum disappointed investors looking for a reacceleration story. Coinbase remains a high-margin crypto utility — but without retail growth or visibility into a demand catalyst, the stock is vulnerable to macro sentiment.

CEO Brian Armstrong:

“We’ve reached a point where the business can remain profitable across market cycles. We’ve made real progress diversifying revenue, and we’re proud of our strong margin performance and discipline.”

CFO Alesia Haas:

“With three straight quarters of $1B+ in net income, we are demonstrating a clear shift in financial profile and product-market fit across retail, institutional, and developer segments.”

What Changed This Quarter

• Net income topped $1B for a third straight quarter — historic consistency for COIN

• Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 61%, near record levels

• Institutional trading volume and fee capture showed unexpected strength

• International flywheel improving: 77% of user volume from non-U.S. accounts

• BASE L2: over 7 million developers and 75M smart contracts deployed — now a scaled infrastructure product, not an experiment

Despite flat MTUs, revenue grew sharply from improved pricing, higher institutional activity, and growth in base-layer crypto infrastructure services.

Shares of Coinbase are down over 7% after earnings. Lets dive in:

Coinbase did not issue formal revenue or EPS guidance, but provided strong operational commentary:

• Subscription & Services Revenue expected to be $550–$600M in Q3

• Transaction Expenses expected to decline further

• Headcount and opex remain flat QoQ — continuing margin leverage

• Adjusted EBITDA positive expected again in Q3

Flat User Growth (MTUs Stalled at 9M)

• While overall revenue surged, Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) were flat QoQ and down 14% YoY.

• This signals limited retail momentum, even in a rising crypto market.

• Investors likely expected user growth alongside rising trading volumes — and didn’t get it.

We’re less than 30 minutes from the close of the trading day. Coinbase shares have been trading up most the day but have seen some selling after 3 p.m. ET, that’s pushed shares down to a more modest .18% gain.

Coinbase shares closed at $377.48 on Tuesday, up more than 50% year-to-date. That performance reflects strong crypto asset flows, expanding subscription revenue, and broader excitement about tokenization and DeFi infrastructure.

But it also sets a high bar: the stock is pricing in both strong execution and positive market tailwinds. A miss on transaction revenue or a sequential decline in stablecoin inflows could reset near-term expectations.

With prior quarters showing violent post-earnings moves in both directions, guidance and segment mix will matter more than just headline EPS.

COIN shares have shown sharp volatility around earnings, with massive upside in Q4 2024 but notable drawdowns in more recent reports. The market remains highly reactive to subscription trends and crypto liquidity.

Now that we’ve taken a look back at Coinbase’s first quarter, let’s look at what Wall Street expects in Q2:

• Revenue: $1.594 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $1.49
• EPS (GAAP): $1.51
• Free Cash Flow: $525.5 million

Looking ahead to Q3 (Coinbase will provide outlook on select metrics like subscription revenue and various expenses that will be used to fill in models for next quarter), here’s what Wall Street expects looking forward:

• Revenue: $1.689 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $1.25
• EPS (GAAP): $1.33