Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) Earnings Live: Coinbase Q1 in Focus

Coinbase is down about 3% after-hours, considering the company gained 5% today after announcing an acquisition of Deribit.

So overall, despite a large earnings miss, the stock is up 2% since yesterday’s close.

The company’s conference call is streamed on YouTube and begins at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Coinbase just reported their first quarter earnings. Here are the highlights:

• Revenue of $2.03 billion (Estimates were $2.2 billion)
• Adjusted EPS of $.24 (Estimates were $2.09)
• Transaction Revenue: $1.26 billion (Estimates $1.33 billion)

You might expect a larger reaction given the size of that miss, but shares are down just 2.6% as of 4:30 p.m.

We will continue posting analysis in this live blog.

Since mid-March, Coinbase executives have disclosed significant selling activity, primarily via derivative exercises:

• Brian Armstrong (CEO):
  • Sold >125,000 shares in multiple tranches
  • Realized value: Over $30 million
  • Price ranges: $180–$260

• Paul Grewal (Chief Legal Officer):
  • Repeated sales totaling ~$5M+
  • Across March and April

Key risks:

• Trading volumes might have slowed late in Q1

• Subscription revenue could fall short after big growth last year

• Legislation timing may slip, slowing stablecoin or derivatives rollout

• Current Price: $207.54 (+5.58%)

• Consensus Price Target: $259.00

• Implied Upside: 25%

COIN’s valuation (~9x forward sales) reflects optimism about a pivot to stable revenues from subscriptions, Base Layer 2, and custody. Regulation clarity and institutional adoption remain key themes, but guidance on margins and usage growth needs to support this bullish positioning.

Crypto sentiment is lifting shares as ETF flows and U.S. policy tailwinds build ahead of tonight’s call.

Alesia Haas, Coinbase CFO, didn’t mince words at a recent conference: “We’re building new rails… the Internet was the last tech wave — this is the next.” Coinbase isn’t just betting on crypto trading anymore — it’s going full-stack infrastructure.

While trading still dominates, the company is leaning into stablecoin infrastructure, Base Layer 2 usage, and subscription services to diversify revenue. In Q4, Haas highlighted that over 75% of global crypto trading volume is derivatives, and COIN is working with regulators to launch 24/7 U.S. futures — a massive addressable market.

And with regulation suddenly moving fast, COIN may have first-mover advantage. Haas described the White House’s recent crypto summit as “the best blessing we could’ve hoped for.” If that momentum translates into policy this summer, it could lift sentiment and inflows alike.

Coinbase enters Q1 earnings with relatively stable top-line results despite crypto volatility. The company has leaned on subscription services and institutional growth to maintain margins while awaiting clearer regulation and broader adoption.

Recent quarter performance:

• Q1 2025 (Est.): ~$1.37B revenue

• Q4 2024: $1.42B revenue

• Q3 2024: $1.36B revenue

• Q2 2024: $1.34B revenue

Full-year FY 2024 revenue came in around $6.56B. FY 2025 consensus is flat to modestly lower at $6.53B — signaling room for upside if trading and stablecoin activity pick up.

Coinbase enters Q1 earnings with a macro tailwind but faces a high bar. Analysts are focused on how Q1 trading volume captured recent volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum markets, and whether the spot ETF tailwind translated into higher retail and institutional engagement.

Stablecoin momentum — especially in USDC — is a central focus, as analysts see this as a multi-year monetization lever. Regulatory clarity from Washington is also front and center, with expectations that the company will reiterate timelines for stablecoin and market structure legislation by August.

Analyst models center around $1.37 billion in Q1 revenue and gross margin improvement driven by services and derivatives.