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Today’s the day — the day the Federal Reserve (probably) will cut interest rates for the first time this year.
Federal Open Market Committee members have been discussing whether to cut target interest rates since yesterday, and at 2 p.m. today are expected to render their verdict, cutting rates by 0.5% (maybe), 0.25% (probably), or 0% (potentially — in which case, a lot of investor tears will be shed). For now, most investors seem to assume the Fed will take the middle course and cut by a quarter point.
They’re sitting tight, and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is trading basically flat on that assumption.
Housing Market News
One factor boosting confidence that a rate cut of some size is coming is the nation’s housing market. CNBC just reported that (annualized) applications for new building permits dropped 3.7% in August, putting us on course for only 1.31 million new houses to be built this year.
Actual housing starts look similar, trending towards 1.307 million for the year — and that number is down 8.5% from July.
Earnings
Earnings “season” is basically over at this point, but the occasional earnings report still pops up from time to time. Cereal giant and S&P 500 component company General Mills (NYSE: GIS | GIS Price Prediction) beat earnings by a nickel in its fiscal Q1 2026 report this morning, earning $0.86 for the quarter.
Revenue was right on target at $4.5 billion, and management reaffirmed its guidance for flat sales this year, somewhere between down 1% and up 1%. Adjusted earnings for the year on the other hand, could be down as much as 10% to 15%.
Investors don’t like the sound of that one bit, and General Mills stock is down 3% premarket.
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