According to Yahoo, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) stock traded for just above $11 in January 2021. It traded for $12 yesterday. The company’s PR department has argued that the company has paid dividends over that period. Really, that’s all they have to say. Most of the blame can be attributed to William Clay Ford, Jr. He has served as board chair, executive chair, or chief executive since 1999.
Under Ford’s leadership, European sales have declined significantly since 2017. Ford has had a similar drop in China since 2016. U.S. sales have been relatively steady. However, this is largely based on sales of its F-Series pickup. That has been the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over four decades. Recently, it was 38% of Ford’s U.S. sales.
What About EVs?
As Ford entered the electric vehicle (EV) market, Bill Ford stated in 2022 that the launch of the F-150 Lightning was the most significant product launch of his career. After promising to spend $30 billion on its move into the EV sector, the company sold only 10,005 of the Lightning in the third quarter of this year. That was less than 2% of the company’s overall sales for the period.
What Ford has to show for its significant investment in EVs is a market share of approximately 6% of all new EVs sold in the U.S. during the first three quarters of the year. That was less than half GM’s share for the same period.
Ford repeatedly stepped away from the fact that it is a gasoline-powered car company. The forecast for the fourth quarter of this year has new EV sales at less than 5% of the U.S. auto sales. That is a sharp drop because of the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit for new EVs. No one expects the EV market share number to increase next year. iSeeCars projects the EV market will not recover for two years.
Ford CEO Jim Farley continues to worry that China is building the best EVs in the world, and at very low price points. However, tariffs are keeping these Chinese products out of the U.S. market. Which president, now or in the future, is going to lift those tariffs and watch Ford and GM torn to pieces?
There is no reason on the horizon for Ford’s shares to rally. Soon, the stock will be flat for a full five years.
Ford Is Building the Wrong Car
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