Live: Will Apple Surge Higher After Q4 Earnings Tonight?

Shares of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) 2.3% in overnight trading. Investors in the company rode a roller coaster after-hours as Apple shares initially sank after their earnigns release, and then popped on news the company’s Holiday quarter would surpass Wall Street expectations.

We listened to Apple’s conference call and are providing a summary of each question from Wall Street and Apple’s response.

Erik Woodring — Morgan Stanley

Question: Is iPhone 17 cycle strength mainly aging installed-base replacements or specific features? And how are you handling memory/component cost inflation?

(Cook): Strength is product-led; “strongest iPhone lineup ever.”
(Parekh): Procurement driving savings; slight tailwind on memory/storage; GM landed above guide (47.2%); new products start higher cost but cost down over time.

Ben Reitzes — Melius

Question: China trajectory into December—have you turned the corner? And were Services helped by legal/antitrust items (e.g., Google case)?

(Cook): China vibrant; traffic up; iPhone 17 well received; expect Q1 return to growth.
(Parekh): Services outperformance was organic; no unusual benefits from the Google trial.

Michael Ng — Goldman Sachs

Question: What drove the acceleration in Services—bundles, installed base, iPhone cross-sell? And trends in upgraders vs. switchers, promos, inventory?

(Parekh): Broad-based across categories/geos; no single driver.
(Cook): September record for upgraders; too early to read 17 switcher mix; channel inventory low end of target; current 17 models constrained due to demand.

Amit Daryanani — Evercore ISI

Question: December GM bridge—puts/takes given leverage? And China: why Sept weakness and what flips in December?

(Parekh): New products carry higher COGS but favorable product mix and holiday leverage lift GM to 47–48%.
(Cook): Sept Greater China −4% y/y mainly from iPhone supply constraints; expect return to growth in Q1 on 17 reception.

Wamsi Mohan — BofA

Question: Will iPhone 17 constraints be resolved by quarter end, and revenue “left on the table”? Also, sustainability of mid-teens Services growth; Search/licensing?\

(Cook): Constrained today; not guiding balance timing; working to fulfill demand. Advertising (first + third party combined) set a record; not breaking out sub-lines.

Samik Chatterjee — JPMorgan

Question: Role of China’s device subsidies in momentum? And OpEx step-up—mix and pace vs. revenue?

(Cook): Subsidies favorable but capped by price thresholds; some products not eligible, still helpful.
(Parekh): OpEx rise mainly R&D for AI and roadmap; despite faster OpEx growth, GM expansion yields healthy operating leverage and OI growth > revenue growth.

David Vogt — UBS

Question: Tariff impact: $1.1B (Sept) to $1.4B (Dec) despite bigger iPhone uplift—how to square? And holiday attach for non-iPhone, Mac outlook?

(Cook): $1.4B assumes current policies incl. China cut 20%→10%, so not linear to units.
(Cook/Parekh): They push ecosystem attach; Mac faces “mother of all launches” compare from last year (plus last year’s DRAM upgrades), but long-term bullish and outgrew market in Sept.

Krish Sankar — TD Cowen

Question: Quantify iPhone constraints; is multi-region manufacturing a factor? And will AI/chatbots change App Store dynamics?

(Cook): Constraints came from under-calling 16 demand and very strong 17 demand; not a manufacturing-capacity issue; not quantifying missed sales.
(Cook): AI creates App Store opportunities; developers adopting on-device models; upside for devs and Apple.

Aaron Rakers — Wells Fargo

Question: Any early mix shift within 17 family (Pro/Pro Max vs. prior cycles)? Update on Private Cloud Compute build-out?

(Cook): Too early to call mix; constrained at both high and entry ends.

(Cook/Parekh): PCC already used for Siri; server plant in Houston ramping; 2025 capex included PCC build-out in first-party DCs.

Atif Malik — Citi

Question: Does iPhone Air reception inform foldable demand?

(Cook): Not a proxy; overall iPhone demand is the story; hence double-digit December guide.

Follow-up (Samik Chatterjee): Strategy on foundation models vs. partners vs. M&A for personalized Siri/AI next year?

(Cook): Building Apple Foundation Models for device + PCC; multiple in development; open to M&A that advances the roadmap.

Richard Kramer — Arete

Question: Are AI features materially influencing purchase decisions vs. iOS retention?

(Cook): Many factors; Apple Intelligence is a factor and expected to grow in importance.

Question (to CFO): With industry AI capex surges and capacity scarcity, will Apple alter its hybrid DC approach? Role of Apple silicon (M5)?

(Parekh): Expect higher AI-related capex; staying hybrid (first-party + third-party). Apple Silicon (A19/M5) underpins strategy; continuing PCC build-out.

Guidance & swing factors (from the call)

• Revenue (Dec): +10–12% y/y; iPhone: double-digit y/y; Services: growth rate similar to FY25 (~mid-teens).

• GM: 47–48% despite tariffs ~$1.4B.

• OpEx (Dec): $18.1–$18.5B, R&D-led (AI).

• Constraints: Multiple iPhone 17 models constrained on demand (not manufacturing); potential revenue timing.

• China: Sept −4% y/y on iPhone supply; expect return to growth in Q1; subsidies help at certain price tiers.

• Capital return: $24B returned in Sept qtr; dividend $0.26 (payable Nov 13, 2025).

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has concluded its earnings call.

As we’ve covered in this live blog on Apple earnings, there are a few pieces of big news:

• Shares Are Headed Higher Due to Guidance: Tim Cook says he expects sales to be 10% to 12% higher during the holiday season, which is above Wall Street consensus. That’s the main factor in shares headed higher after hours.
• Greater China is a Concern: Apple’s Greater China sales disappointed last quarter and almost caused the company to miss on sales. Tim Cook said the miss was due to supply constraints and says the company should return to growth in the region next quarter.
• Apple Did Beat Big Last Quarter: Most reactions to earnings are forward-looking, but it’s worth noting that Apple did beat last quarter’s earnings by a wide amount. EPS of $1.85 topped Wall Street expectations of $1.77.

We listened to Apple’s earnings call, and here are 5 quotes that caught our attention:

“We expect the December quarter’s revenue to be the best ever for the company and the best ever for iPhone.” — Tim Cook

• The takeaway here is simple, Apple will clear Wall Street’s expectations next quarter. As we’ve noted, this is why shares are up after-hours.

“Gross margin [December] to be between 47% and 48%…” — Kevan Parekh

• Wall Street expected gross margins of 46.6%, so this means Apple should not only beat on revenue, but also earnings per share.

“Today, we are constrained on several iPhone 17 models… it’s not a ramp issue; we have very strong demand.” — Tim Cook

• As we noted, Apple blamed their Greater China miss on supply issues. Tim Cook says demand for iPhone 17 continues to exceed supply.

“We are significantly increasing our investments in AI… OpEx [Dec] $18.1–$18.5B, driven largely by R&D.” — Kevan Parekh

• The main bear case against Apple is that they’ve become a laggard in AI, but the company continues to invest in getting AI right. Expect some mix of partnerships and homegrown resarch.

“We believe we’ll return to growth in Greater China in Q1, largely based on the reception of iPhone.” — Tim Cook

• As we noted earlier, the biggest reason we could see Apple shares selling off is how poor last quarter’s Greater China sales were. With Cook promising a return to growth next quater, that’s likely good enough to keep Apple shares in the green when the market opens tomorrow.

We’ll update this blog with key areas to watch after Apple’s earnings call.

If you’d like to get a concise summary of everything you need to know from the call, simply leave this page open and an update will load once the call ends in about an hour.

Right after Apple reported shares were down 3%.

Yet, everything has now flipped.

We reported on the reasons why: Guidance issued by Tim Cook is extremely bullish in the holiday quarter and above Wall Street expectations.

Shares are now up 4.3%.

Tonight is a big reversal from last night, when Meta Platforms and Microsoft both sank after releasing earnings. 

Next up is Apple’s conference call. Key areas to watch will be more commentary on iPhone demand next quarter, the company’s expected rebound in China, and commentary on the company’s AI strategy.

Wow, Apple shares were down 2% and then suddenly went vertical. They’re now up 1.8%. That’s a 4% reversal for Apple, which is fairly dramatic for a company this size and is surely leaving some investors scratching their heads what’s going on.

It looks like the driver of the reversal is reports that hit newswires about Tim Cook’s forecasting 10-12% growth for the holiday quarter, which is above what Wall Street expects. 

We had reported this guidance in our 4:32 p.m. update before shares reversed.

Apple CEO Tim Cook singled out demand for its iPhone 17 lineup as a key driver for their bullish holiday growth.

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) just reported earnings and was initially down 3%, but shares have rebounded a bit and are now down 1.5%

Here are the three most important figures that are driving the after-hours reaction:

1. China sales of $14.49 billion versus estimates of $16.4 billion last quarter disappointed. Apple is predicting a return to growth next quarter, but that’s a big disappointment.
2. iPhone sales also disappointed. iPhone sales were $49,03 billion versus expectations of $50.19. billion.
3. However, here’s a bright spot: Apple’s services division beat expectations. Sales of $28.75 billion topped expectations of $28.2 billion.

We’ll continue updating this live blog with Wall Street’s reaction to earnings.

Apple’s biggest weakness last quarter was China sales.

China sales were $14.5 billion last quarter, that’s below expectations of $16.4 billion.

Were it not for this China miss, we could be seeing a much stronger reaction after-hours.

Apple stock is bouncing off its initial lows, down about 1% after initially dropping 3%. 

Apple’s iPhone sales missed last quarter with $49.03 billion vs expectations of $50.19 billion.

However, Apple is predicting iPhone revenue will grow at double-digit rates next quarter. 

Adjusted EPS: $1.85 (Wall St expected $1.77)

Revenue: $102.5 Billion (Wall St expected $102.25 billion)

Stock Reaction: Shares down 3%

We’re 8 minutes away from Apple‘s (Nasdaq: AAPL) earnings. Here are three things you need to know before they’re released:

1.) Make sure you leave this page open because updates will begin at 4:30 and post automatically.

As a reminder, Wall Street expects the following from Apple tonight:

2.) Apple has beaten Wall Street’s expectations 19 out of the last 20 times they reported earnings. Just because Apple beats Wall Street expectations doesn’t mean shares will be up. We will be providing more details on why shares gain or fall after earnings drop.

3.) Bookmark our AI Investor Podcast. We’ll be breaking down Apple’s earnings in more depth on the next episode. Our average recommendation on the podcast is up about 70% in just a year’s time. Don’t miss out on future episodes!

It was a bad day today for most Magnificent 7 stocks, but Amazon is now 10% after-hours after smashing earnings.

As a reminder, we expect Apple to report earnings at 4:30 p.m. ET. The moment earnings hit we’ll begin posting updates.

You can follow our live Amazon blog if you’d like in the meantime.

Shares of Apple are up .6% with about 18 minutes left in the trading day. That’s impressive outperformance against the broader market. The Nasdaq is down 1.48%.

Popular prediction market Polymarket currently has Apple at an 84% chance of beating earnings (defined as beating adjusted EPS of $1.76) when it reports tonight.

It’s been a long time since Apple missed earnings, the company has beaten Wall Street’s expectations in 10 straight quarters. Yet, Apple also has seen smaller earnings beats than many of its Mangificent 7 peers across that time.

Yesterday, prediction markets assigned a more than 90% probability Meta would beat earnings, and then the company missed after taking a large one-time charge.