Live Coverage
Updates appear automatically as they are published.
Live: Can CrowdStrike Deliver Another Blowout Quarter With Q1 Earnings Tonight?
Loading chart data...
Quick Read
-
CRWD has surged 64% year to date to $768.95, already trading well above the $564 analyst consensus target.
-
Prediction markets price only a 39% chance net new ARR tops $275M, but anything above $300M would echo last quarter's blowout.
-
Falcon Flex ARR surged over 120% year over year to $1.69 billion, with George Kurtz noting AIDR grew more than 5x last quarter.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and CrowdStrike wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.
Live Updates
Bull vs Bear Case for CrowdStrike Ahead of Q1 Earnings Tonight
Live
Bull Case
- Beat streak: four consecutive EPS beats, with Polymarket pricing a 94.5% probability of another beat tonight.
- ARR engine accelerating: Q4 FY26 hit record net new ARR of $330.7M (+47% YoY), with management citing a record Q1 pipeline.
- Falcon Flex ARR reached $1.69B, up over 120% YoY, fueling platform consolidation.
Bear Case
- Valuation risk: shares are up 68.76% in the past month, well above the $564.24 analyst target.
- High-bar problem: Polymarket gives only a 39% chance net new ARR clears $275M.
- GAAP losses persist, with $117.7M in FY26 Falcon incident costs.
- History of post-beat fades: average one-day change of -0.62% across eight beats.
CrowdStrike's Recent Insider Activity Shows No Open-Market Buys
Live
With CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD | CRWD Price Prediction) reporting Q1 earnings tonight, recent Form 4 activity skewed entirely to the sell side. Zero open-market buys were recorded from May 8 through May 29, 2026.
Top 5 Insider Transactions
| Date | Insider | Title | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Michael Sentonas | President | Sell | 20,000 | @$540 |
| May 11, 2026 | Michael Sentonas | President | Sell | 20,000 | @$530 |
| May 12, 2026 | Michael Sentonas | President | Sell | 10,000 | @$550 |
| May 14, 2026 | Sameer Gandhi | Director | Sell | 3,124 | @$580.90 |
| May 29, 2026 | George Kurtz | CEO | Sell | 35 lots | up to $731.13 |
Signal Check
Kurtz executed 150+ individual disposals as shares climbed from $509.72 to $731.13. Coordinated selling by the CEO, President, and Director into a 68.76% one-month rally is notable, though programmatic 10b5-1 plans likely explain the cadence. Investors should weigh this against the 95.5% probability of a beat heading into tonight’s report.
Top 5 Analyst Questions Ahead of CrowdStrike's Q1 Earnings Tonight
Live
With CrowdStrike’s call set for 5:00 PM ET, here are some top questions analysts are probably thinking about:
Top 5 Analyst Questions
- Can net new ARR sustain +47% YoY growth after Q4’s record $330.7M?
- Will FY27 ARR guidance of $6,465.8M–$6,516.4M get raised?
- Falcon Flex re-flex rates and contribution beyond $1.69B ARR?
- Timeline to GAAP profitability given Q4’s -$6.9M operating loss?
- SGNL and Seraphic integration progress?
Buzzwords to listen for
- “Agentic AI era,” “operating system of cybersecurity,” AIDR, Charlotte AI monetization.
Red flags
- Heavy insider selling, including CEO Kurtz’s 250+ disposals and President Sentonas unloading 50,000 shares.
- Lingering July 2024 outage costs ($117.7M FY26).
- Subscription growth slipping below +23% YoY.
CrowdStrike Q1 Earnings Preview: The Rally Needs Another Raise
Live
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) heads into earnings with the market already expecting another big beat. Prediction markets put the odds of an earnings beat around 95%, and the company has beaten expectations in each of its last eight quarters.
After a sharp rebound in software stocks, investors are looking for signs that CrowdStrike’s growth engine is still accelerating. The stock likely needs raised FY27 guidance, stronger net new ARR, and confident commentary around AI-driven demand to send the stock higher.
The most important number may be net new ARR. CrowdStrike has spent the past several quarters proving that customers are still consolidating security spending around Falcon, and a fresh acceleration would support the view that the company remains one of the strongest compounders in software.
AI commentary also matters. Investors want to hear that Charlotte AI, Falcon Flex, and broader automation tools are helping drive adoption, retention, or larger platform deals.
Expectations are already high, so a normal beat may look light if guidance fails to move higher or if ARR growth loses momentum.
Investors are watching CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) ahead of its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results due today, June 3, expected at 4:05 PM ET after the market’s close. After a furious run in the stock, this report has to justify the rerating.
A Rally That Needs Receipts
CrowdStrike stock is up 64.04% year to date and 14.5% in just the past week, closing Tuesday at $768.95. That run sits well above the analyst consensus target of $564.24, so the bar is no longer where guidance set it back in March.
Last quarter, CrowdStrike posted Q4 revenue of $1.31 billion, up 23.32% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.12 beating the $1.10 estimate. Ending ARR hit $5.25 billion, up 24%, with record net new ARR of $330.7 million, up 47% year over year. Management called out a record Q1 pipeline that grew 49% year-over-year.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q1 FY27 Guide | Q1 FY26 Actual | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,360M–$1,364M | $1.10B | ~23% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.06–$1.07 | $0.73 | ~45% |
| Ending ARR | $5,501.8M–$5,503.8M | $4.44B | ~24% |
| FY27 Revenue | $5,867.6M–$5,927.6M | ~23% | |
| FY27 EPS | $4.78–$4.90 | ~30% | |
Net New ARR and Flex Are the Whole Game
Tonight, I will be watching CrowdStrike’s net new ARR. Management guided Q1 to $249 million to $251 million, reflecting 29% to 30% year-over-year growth. Polymarket traders agree the floor is solid, pricing a 98.9% probability of clearing $225M and 89.5% above $250M, but only 39% above $275M. Anything above $300M would echo last quarter’s blowout.
Falcon Flex is another important aspect to watch. ARR hit $1.69 billion, up more than 120% year over year, with more than 1,600 Flex customers and an average 26% ARR lift per re-Flex within seven months. Investors will look at whether the re-Flex cohort continues to expand, as that funds the back half of FY27.
AI security positioning matters too. CEO George Kurtz said, “AIDR has become one of our most in-demand products, growing more than 5x versus last quarter.” Next-gen SIEM grew over 75% year-over-year to more than $585 million, and cloud ARR exceeded $800 million. Margin expansion is the kicker: non-GAAP operating margin reached 25% in Q4, and Q1 guidance implies that level holds.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
© 24/7 Wall St.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks