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Live: Cisco Systems (CSCO) 1st Quarter Earnings Coverage

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By Joel South Updated Published

Quick Read

  • Cisco (CSCO) recorded over $800M in Q4 AI orders and $2B for fiscal 2025.

  • Cisco expects security growth to reach 15% to 17% long term driven by Splunk integration.

  • The company doubled its initial AI order goal with ongoing strength from hyperscalers and sovereign AI projects.

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What Changed This Quarter

  • New DoorDash partnership adds national reach and potentially expands order volume capacity.
  • Acquired Vayu (AI autonomy) and Phantom Auto (teleoperation) to strengthen platform efficiency.
  • Launched Chicago market, now active in five major metros.
  • Raised $100 M via direct offering post-quarter, bringing liquidity to $310 M total.
  • Loss widened due to heavy R&D (+47% QoQ) and integration expenses.

Serve delivered another quarter of rapid operational progress but fell short on profit trajectory. The market’s muted reaction suggests investors expected steep losses during this build-out phase. With liquidity strengthened and partnerships multiplying, Serve’s narrative remains about execution to scale, whether its growing fleet can convert technological leadership into a sustainable, cash-generating delivery network in 2026.

Key Operating Highlights

KPI Q3 2025 Q2 2025 YoY Change Commentary
Delivery Volume +66% QoQ +300% YoY Volume acceleration shows strong network utilization.
Daily Active Robots 312 160 +429% Crossed 1,000 robots deployed nationwide.
Daily Supply Hours 3,781 1,723 +713% Indicates higher robot uptime and productivity.
Merchant Partners 3,600 + 2,500 prior +44% QoQ DoorDash & Jersey Mike’s expanded footprint.

These KPIs validate Serve’s ability to scale commercially and improve per-robot productivity — the central metric for proving its autonomy model.

Guidance Update

Management reaffirmed its 2025 outlook for over $2.5 million in revenue, implying another step-up in Q4, and reiterated expectations for “~10x revenue growth in 2026.” Serve expects to deploy its 2,000th robot ahead of schedule by mid-December 2025.
Guidance Summary:

Metric Prior Updated Direction
FY 2025 Revenue > $2.5 M Reaffirmed Flat
FY 2026 Revenue Outlook “10x growth” Reaffirmed Flat
Robot Deployment Target 2,000 by year-end 2025 Mid-Dec 2025 Raised

Reaction to the quarter

Cisco’s Q1 sets a confident tone for FY2026. The combination of accelerating AI demand, refreshed enterprise hardware, and growing recurring revenue visibility points to a solid multiyear upcycle.

Key Operating Highlights

KPI Q1 FY2026 YoY Change Why It Matters
AI Infrastructure Orders $1.1B +120% Confirms sustained hyperscaler demand and early sovereign adoption.
Security Revenue $1.5B +18% Reflects strength in SASE and Splunk cross-sell.
Gross Margin 66.1% +70 bps Product mix shift toward high-margin software.
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) $38.6B +9% Indicates strong visibility into future revenue.

What Changed This Quarter

  • AI orders accelerated beyond Q4 pace, validating Cisco’s positioning in the data center buildout cycle.

  • Guidance raised on stronger backlog and early FY momentum.

  • Splunk integration synergy ramping faster than expected with 400+ joint customers.

  • Margins improved despite tariff uncertainty.

  • Enterprise refresh cycle beginning to contribute meaningfully to product revenue.

Management Commentary

“Our AI infrastructure strategy is delivering — with hyperscaler orders more than tripling year over year and sovereign AI projects starting to convert into shipments,” said CEO Chuck Robbins.
“We’re executing well on our transformation, and the early success of our Secure AI Factory and Splunk integration gives us confidence in durable growth ahead.”

Robbins’ comments underscore a strategic pivot toward AI and observability, positioning Cisco to compete at the intersection of networking, data, and security analytics.

Guidance Update

Cisco raised its FY2026 revenue outlook to $60.2–$61.0B (from $59.88B consensus) and its EPS range to $4.10–$4.20 (vs. $4.04 est.), driven by strength in AI orders and Splunk cross-sell momentum.

Earnings In, Shares Up 4.4%

Cisco reported Q1 FY2026 results that topped expectations, highlighting steady progress in AI networking and a solid start to the new fiscal year.

Metric Actual Estimate Beat/Miss
Revenue $15.02B $14.78B ✅ Beat
EPS (Adj.) $1.04 $0.98 ✅ Beat

After-hours reaction: Shares rose +3.9% as investors welcomed stronger-than-expected AI infrastructure demand and improving enterprise spending trends.

Quick take: The quarter reaffirmed Cisco’s transformation from a traditional networking vendor to an AI-era infrastructure and observability leader. AI-related orders surged again, and Splunk integration continued to deepen platform stickiness. Gross margins improved modestly despite persistent tariff headwinds, showing better cost control and product mix optimization.

Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO | CSCO Price Prediction) will report Q1 FY2026 earnings after the close, following a strong finish to fiscal 2025 marked by broad-based demand across networking and security. The company exceeded expectations last quarter with revenue of $14.67 billion and EPS of $0.99, as AI infrastructure orders more than doubled its prior-year target. CEO Chuck Robbins said the company has “established a solid foundation” for its strongest year yet, driven by record webscale orders, early enterprise AI deployments, and refreshed product lines built around its Silicon One platform.

What to Expect When Cisco Reports

Metric Estimate (Q1 FY2026) Year-Ago (Q1 FY2025)
Revenue $14.78 billion $13.84 billion
EPS (Normalized) $0.98 $0.91
Full-Year 2026 Revenue $59.88 billion $56.65 billion
Full-Year 2026 EPS (Normalized) $4.04 $3.81

Key Areas to Watch When Cisco Reports

1. AI Infrastructure Momentum
Cisco recorded more than $800 million in Q4 AI orders and $2 billion for FY 2025, doubling its initial goal. The company expects ongoing strength from hyperscalers, sovereign AI projects, and “Neocloud” partnerships. Investors will look for updated order trends and timing of revenue recognition from this pipeline.

2. Enterprise Campus Refresh Cycle
The launch of Catalyst 9000 smart switches and new AI-ready routers marks the beginning of a multiyear upgrade opportunity across Cisco’s vast installed base. Watch for early enterprise adoption rates and commentary on Cat9k replacements as potential revenue accelerators into FY 2026.

3. Security & Splunk Integration
Cisco’s refreshed security stack—SASE, XDR, Hypershield, and AI Defense—posted 20%+ order growth, while new Splunk cross-selling added 300 new customers. Management expects the combined platform to push security growth toward the 15–17% range long term.

4. AI Partnerships and Product Innovation
The NVIDIA Spectrum-X integration and Secure AI Factory blueprint are central to Cisco’s positioning as enterprises deploy on-prem AI clusters. Progress here could expand the company’s role beyond networking into AI data-center architecture.

5. Macro, Tariffs, and Margin Discipline
CFO Mark Patterson highlighted tariffs on China (30%), Mexico (25%), and Canada (35%) but noted minimal gross-margin impact due to semiconductor exemptions. Investors should monitor any changes to these assumptions or commentary on cost mitigation.

 

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About the Author Joel South →

Joel South has been an avid investor and financial writer for over 15 years, publishing thousands of articles analyzing stocks, markets, and investment strategies across multiple leading financial media platforms. He spent 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he worked as an investment analyst and Bureau Chief before ascending to direct the Fool.com investing news desk, overseeing editorial operations and content strategy. During his tenure, Joel co-hosted an investing podcast and became a recognized voice in financial media through numerous TV and radio appearances discussing stock market trends and investment opportunities.

Currently serving as General Manager and Managing Editor at 24/7 Wall Street, Joel has published hundreds of in-depth analyses focusing on large-cap stocks, dividend-paying equities, and market-moving developments. His comprehensive coverage spans earnings previews, price predictions, and investment forecasts for major companies across all sectors—from technology giants and semiconductor manufacturers to consumer brands and financial institutions. Joel's expertise encompasses t fundamental analysis, options market interpretation, institutional investor behavior, and translating complex market dynamics into clear, actionable insights for individual investors.

Live: Cisco Systems (CSCO) 1st Quarter Earnings Coverage

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