No Clear Direction

After crossing $93k last night, BTC is ranging tightly, but staying above the $91k level. With Polymarket at 93% probability and FedWatch at 89%, a 25bps rate cut seems all but certain at this point. It’s a light week in macro, so price action won’t see much effect from this sector. Shorts are building on centralized exchanges, with Binance and OKX having negative annualized funding rates on perpetual futures. This is in stark contrast with DEX’s, as Hyperliquid and Lighter have BTC over 10% at this time of writing. The tight range we are currently seeing could persist without any catalysts coming forward this week. ETF flows are muted as well, with about $59m in inflows yesterday. The end of the year sees volume start to fall off of a cliff, as people focus on the holidays and take a break from the market, especially in times of low volatility. If BTC starts approaching $100k again, all bets are off here, however.

The rest of the market is trading in quite rangebound fashion as well since Monday’s losses were erased. Solana is trading in the $140 range, and has low annualized funding rates across perpetual future exchanges at this time. SOL has not had much attention lately, but the penultimate conference, Breakpoint, is next week. Breakpoint is taking place in Abu Dhabi from 12/11 to 12/13. This conference will see news on roadmaps, new technologies and projects, and what to expect from the Solana Foundation in 2026. With 2025 being an immense year for memecoin launchpads and AI Agents on Solana, a new meta will surely form in 2026.