For more than two years, U.S. export restrictions have severely limited Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD | AMD Price Prediction) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) from selling their most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators in China. The controls, progressively tightened by the federal government, aim to prevent Beijing from obtaining cutting-edge technology that could advance military or strategic AI capabilities. As a result, both companies have one of the world’s largest AI markets all but closed off to them.
China once accounted for a significant portion of their data-center revenue, but the restrictions have led to lost sales, inventory write-downs, and a material hit to growth expectations. Recent policy changes, however, suggest the U.S. is willing to allow limited shipments of compliant chips, creating a potential opening for both firms.
A Chance for a Massive Sales Coup
This morning, the website MLex reported that Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) is considering a purchase of 40,000 to 50,000 MI308 AI accelerators from AMD. The MI308 is AMD’s China-specific AI chip, engineered to comply with current U.S. export rules while still offering substantial performance for large-scale AI training and inference workloads.
According to the report, AMD has already secured some export licenses for the MI308 and is prepared to pay a 15% fee to the U.S. government on approved sales to Chinese customers. The MI308 is reportedly nearing commercial availability in China, and other major Chinese cloud providers and internet companies are also evaluating the chip.
What Such a Large Order Would Mean for AMD
If the rumored order materializes at the reported scale, it would represent one of the largest single deals for AMD in the Chinese market since the export curbs began. A 40,000 to 50,000 unit purchase would generate hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, depending on final pricing, and would validate the MI308 as a viable alternative to Nvidia offerings.
Such a deal would also strengthen AMD’s position in China’s rapidly growing data-center and AI infrastructure sector, where domestic players like Huawei and Cambricon are trying to fill the void left by Western vendors. Importantly, AMD has not included any meaningful China revenue in its recent financial guidance, so a confirmed order of this size would likely trigger upward revisions to full-year forecasts and provide a visible catalyst for the stock.
Despite the headline-grabbing report, Advanced Micro shares traded only modestly higher in morning trading. The limited price movement suggests investors are either skeptical of the rumor or view it as too preliminary to justify aggressive buying.
MLex is currently the sole source reporting the specific Alibaba-MI308 figure, and neither AMD nor Alibaba has commented publicly on the matter.
Nvidia Also Preparing China Shipments
At the same time, Nvidia is preparing to resume limited shipments of its H200 GPU to China, with initial deliveries of 5,000 to 10,000 modules — the equivalent of 40,000 to 80,000 individual chips — expected to begin in mid-February, according to separate reports. Like AMD, Nvidia has received U.S. export approvals for the China-compliant version of the H200, though final shipments still require Chinese regulatory clearance, which may include conditions such as bundling with domestic semiconductors.
Key Takeaway
Should the reported Alibaba purchase of 40,000 to 50,000 MI308 chips be confirmed, it would mark a major commercial and strategic victory for AMD in a market that has been closed to its high-end products. The revenue upside would be meaningful, and because neither AMD nor Nvidia has baked China sales into their current guidance, any real order flow could lead to substantial analyst upgrades and improved sentiment.
That said, the report remains unconfirmed and is based on a single source. Until official announcements or concrete evidence emerge, investors should not rush in to buy Advanced Micro Devices’ stock solely on the strength of this rumor.
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