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The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is up 0.5% premarket on some surprisingly good economic news. The U.S. Department of Commerce says the economy grew 4.3% year over year in the third quarter of 2025, more than a full percentage point above economists’ prediction of 3.2% growth.
Granted, this news arrives later than expected, having been delayed by the government shutdown. Granted, too, the news covers only the period from July to September, before the government went into effect (and presumably slowed the economy significantly).
Still, it’s good news, and investors are treating it as such.
Commerce also noted that consumer spending grew 3.5% in Q3, improving from a 2.5% rate in Q2. Increases in exports and government spending (don’t expect that to repeat in Q4) contributed to the growth.
On the negative side, we learned today that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which the Fed uses most of all to gauge inflation, rose 2.8% in Q3, faster than the expected 2.1% rate. Core PCE rose 2.9%, more than the 2.6% expected.
What does all of this mean for the stock market? Caveats aside, the data seem to suggest a stronger economy and higher inflation, both factors that would tend to take away arguments for the Fed continuing to cut interest rates. And seeing as lower interest rates are what investors want most of all for Christmas… my prediction would be that the 0.5% uptick on the Voo today will not last long.
Silver and gold
Ahead of the Commerce report Tuesday, silver and gold prices both hit new all-time highs — something you’d also expect to see if inflation is a worry. Silver prices hit $70.635 per ounce intraday, and gold prices rose as high as $4,530.80 per ounce.
Premarket today, silver is trading for $70.46, and gold is fetching $4,504.30, both down a bit from yesterday’s record, albeit intraday, prices.
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