One of the most closely watched stocks in the world, investors have watched as shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) have declined 6.75% year-to-date, coinciding with a shift in retail sentiment on Reddit and X. Tesla mentions on r/WallStreetBets have increased sharply, with users sharing bearish commentary about the company’s pivot from traditional automotive to robotaxis, humanoid robots, and energy infrastructure. Retail traders question whether Tesla can execute amid declining core vehicle sales.
Retail Traders Turn Bearish on Execution Risk
Reddit discussions turned decidedly negative in recent weeks. Sentiment scores fell to 12 (very bearish) during February 9-11, driven by posts about put positions and shareholder exits. One r/WallStreetBets user detailed a $600,000 bet on short-dated Tesla puts, writing: “Thinking either 1 million – if TSLA goes back below 400 in the next two days – or oblivion.” The post drew 1,549 upvotes and 372 comments.
$600,000 in short dated TSLA puts
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A post titled “I Finally Sold My Tesla Shares” on r/investing captured disillusioned long-term holders. The author explained: “The thesis I originally bought no longer exists. Add in a CEO I don’t trust, constant distractions, and attempts to blur the lines between Tesla and his other ventures, and I couldn’t justify the risk anymore.” The post resonated with 724 upvotes and 474 comments.
Real concerns include:
- Revenue dropped 2.9% year-over-year while pursuing capital-intensive robotics and AI projects
- Key executives are departing, including the Director of Vehicle Operations at Fremont
- Musk warned the $25,000 Cybercab robotaxi will be “agonizingly slow” to produce, despite targeting 2 million units annually
Where Elon’s Vision Meets Market Reality
Musk’s plan to add 100 gigawatts of solar manufacturing capacity ties into powering data centers for AI infrastructure, all while Morgan Stanley sees $190 billion in upside if Tesla becomes America’s top solar manufacturer. Still, it’s worth noting that these efforts will require $30-70 billion in investment even as vehicle deliveries decline and margins compress.
Ford (NYSE:F) is up 8.43% year-to-date, benefiting from a less volatile strategy. For Tesla investors, the question is whether Musk’s vision across SpaceX, AI, and energy justifies the $1.565 trillion market cap, or if 2026 will expose the limits of betting on moonshots while the core business stumbles.
Data Sources
- Barron’s analysis provided context on Tesla’s four-day winning streak and Musk’s divided focus across ventures
- Invezz reporting detailed Morgan Stanley’s solar manufacturing analysis and the competitive robotics landscape
- Internal analysis document outlined Tesla’s financial struggles, including revenue decline and valuation concerns relative to weak profitability metrics
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