Live Earnings: Will Tempus AI Surprise Wall Street Tonight?
Quick Read
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Tempus AI (TEM) achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time in Q3 at $1.5M. Q4 revenue reached $367M, up 83%.
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Tempus shares declined 22% since the January preliminary filing despite beating revenue consensus and achieving profitability.
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Net loss widened to $80M in Q3 from $75.8M a year earlier despite much higher revenue.
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Live Updates
LIVE UPDATES IN PROGRESS — Stay on This Page
We are updating this story in real time as new information breaks. Stay on this page for the latest developments, key quotes, numbers, and market reaction as they happen.
Updates on changes this quarter
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Profitability improved on an adjusted basis: Adj. EBITDA jumped to $12.9M in Q4 from $1.5M in Q3.
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GAAP loss optics worsened YoY: Q4 net loss ($54.2M) vs ($13.0M) last year, with the release calling out $48.7M of SBC-related expense and taxes in Q4.
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2026 profitability guidance is now explicit: ~$65M Adj. EBITDA is a real marker for the model, not just aspirational language.
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MRD momentum showed up: volumes accelerated 56% QoQ, giving investors something tangible beyond topline.
Guidance Update
This is the most important new information in the release.
| Item | Company Guide | Implication | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 Revenue | ~$1.59B (~25% growth) | Slower growth rate vs FY’25 +83% (mix and comp effects), but still solid scale-up | ⚖️ (new baseline) |
| FY 2026 Adj. EBITDA | ~$65M | Clear step-up from FY’25 –$7.4M to meaningfully positive | 📈 Raised profitability trajectory |
Read-through: Tempus is explicitly telling the market that 2026 is the year profitability becomes visible in a way that can’t be hand-waved away as a one-quarter blip.
Earnings Are Out
Tempus put up the growth numbers investors expected, but the stock is trading down anyway because the report re-centers the debate on GAAP losses, heavy SBC, and the credibility of the “profitability inflection” narrative.
| Metric | Actual | Pre / Street Setup | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Q4) | $367.2M (+83% YoY) | $367M prelim actual | ✅ In line (already known) |
| Non-GAAP EPS (Q4) | –$0.04 | –$0.05 | ✅ Beat |
| Adj. EBITDA (Q4) | $12.9M | “Key watch item” | ✅ Better |
| Adj. EBITDA (FY’25) | –$7.4M | Mgmt had said FY slightly positive (prior framing) | ❌ Below that bar |
Why the stock is down 5% even with strong growth: the upside was largely “pre-sold” via the revenue preannouncement. What changed tonight is investors are digesting that GAAP net loss widened sharply YoY in Q4 and FY adjusted EBITDA still finished negative, which reopens the question of how quickly operating leverage truly arrives.
Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM | TEM Price Prediction) reports full Q4 2025 and full-year results after the market closes, with the market already holding a preliminary revenue figure. The real question tonight is what the complete financials reveal about profitability, margins, and where management sees the business heading in 2026.
Strong Prelim, But the Story Is Still Being Written
Tempus pre-announced Q4 revenue of $367 million, an 83% year-over-year gain that beat consensus. Diagnostics led the way with $266 million in revenue, up 121% year-over-year, driven by oncology volume growing 29% and hereditary volume up 23%. Data and Applications contributed $100 million, up 25%, with the Insights segment accelerating to 68% growth.
The headline that mattered most heading into Q3 was Tempus achieving positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, a milestone CEO Eric Lefkofsky called “a 10-year goal.” Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.5 million versus negative $21.8 million a year earlier. Management guided for the full year to be slightly positive on that metric, even absorbing integration costs from the Paige acquisition. Total contract value hit a record exceeding $1.1 billion, and net revenue retention stood at 126%, signaling strong expansion within the existing customer base.
Despite those results, TEM shares have pulled back roughly 22% since the preliminary filing on January 12, significantly underperforming the broader market. That disconnect sets up tonight’s full report as a credibility moment.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q4 2025 Estimate | YoY Growth | Full Year 2025 Estimate | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $367M (prelim actual) | +83% | $1.265B (guided) | 80% |
| Normalized EPS | ($.05) |
Profitability Trajectory and 2026 Guidance Will Set the Tone
Revenue growth at Tempus is no longer the debate. The conversation has shifted to whether that growth is converting into durable financial leverage. I’ll be watching the Q4 adjusted EBITDA figure closely. Tempus turned positive in Q3 despite absorbing Paige integration costs, and management guided for the full year to land slightly positive. If Q4 shows sequential improvement, it validates the operating leverage thesis embedded in the bull case.
The net loss trajectory also matters. Q3 net loss was $80 million, wider than the $75.8 million loss a year earlier despite much higher revenue. Investors will want to see that gap narrowing as scale builds.
You should pay close attention to 2026 guidance. Lefkofsky said Tempus enters the year in “an exceptionally strong position with both of our main businesses accelerating in growth and delivering the financial leverage inherent in our platform.” That language is bullish, but the market will demand specific numbers. The foundation model is expected to produce its first versions in Q1 2026, MRD reimbursement is progressing, and xT CDx ADLT submissions are underway through 2026. Each of these represents a potential revenue catalyst that guidance should begin to quantify.
The Paige integration is another thread worth tracking. Management said the acquisition added several million dollars of expense drag in Q3. How that cost base evolves in Q4 and into 2026 will shape the margin story. Analyst consensus currently sits at 7 Buy ratings and 7 Hold ratings with an average price target of $86.71, implying meaningful upside from current levels if execution holds.
Execution Is the Only Thing That Rebuilds This Stock
Tempus has delivered exceptional top-line growth and crossed a key profitability threshold. But the stock is down roughly 18% over the past year as investors weigh the pace of loss reduction against the scale of the opportunity. Tonight’s full report needs to show that Q3’s adjusted EBITDA inflection was not a one-quarter event. Clear 2026 guidance with a credible path toward sustained profitability is what this market needs to see before sentiment can meaningfully recover.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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