Yesterday investors watched to see whether Tempus AI’s full-year and Q4 2025 results would validate the profitability story that the January pre-announcement left unfinished. The complete financials are now in, and this morning shares are trading around $56, down around 5% from the prior close after an after-hours selloff followed Tuesday’s report.
Guidance Carries the Weight
Revenue was never really in question. The $367 million Q4 print, up 83% year over year, had been pre-announced in January and came in essentially as expected. What moved the stock last night was the fuller picture around profitability and forward targets.
- Non-GAAP EPS: -4 cents, beating the -5 cents estimate
- Adj. EBITDA (Q4): $12.9 million, up from $1.5 million in Q3
- Adj. EBITDA (Full Year 2025): -$7.4 million, finishing below management’s prior framing of slightly positive
- 2026 Revenue Guide: ~$1.59 billion, implying ~25% growth
- 2026 Adj. EBITDA Guide: ~$65 million
As 24/7 Wall St. flagged in last night’s coverage, the GAAP net loss widened sharply year over year in Q4, with $48.7 million in stock-based compensation and tax-related expenses driving much of the gap. That’s a one-time composition issue worth noting, but investors are still weighing it against the pace of operating leverage.
The 2026 guidance, particularly the $65 million adjusted EBITDA target, is the clearest signal yet that profitability is no longer aspirational language.
Management Confident, Market Measured
CEO Eric Lefkofsky struck a bullish tone, stating “We enter 2026 in an exceptionally strong position with both of our main businesses accelerating in growth and delivering the financial leverage inherent in our platform.” The market’s reaction suggests investors heard the message but want to see it in the numbers over the next two quarters. BTIG maintained its Buy rating this morning, a sign that conviction in the thesis remains intact even as near-term expectations get recalibrated.
What to Watch This Week
Our attention now turns to how the broader analyst community adjusts price targets following the open. The MRD volume acceleration of 56% quarter over quarter is a tangible data point that could attract fresh attention, and the $65 million adjusted EBITDA guide gives the model a real anchor for 2026. Watch whether the stock stabilizes around current levels or tests lower as the market digests the GAAP loss picture more fully.
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