Live Earnings Analysis: BigBear.AI Reports After the Bell

I checked the BigBear call and didn’t see anything that would warrant a major move up. The company’s CEO had promised three significant developments, but all of them were larger geopolitical developments that are widely known.

It’s likely investors heard about these developments and got excited, but the gains faded as each was described.

Shares are currently down 3% after hours.

BigBear is hosting its conference call and shares briefly rebounded into positive territory before retreating. They’re currently down 2.2%.

We’ll look through the call and see if there are any specific catalysts.

Q4 2025 Earnings Scorecard

With Q4 results in and shares down roughly 5% after hours, here is how BigBear.ai grades across key categories.

Overall Grade: D+

A significant revenue miss and below-consensus guidance overshadow the adjusted EPS beat. Full-year 2025 revenue of $128M marks a meaningful decline, and the 2026 midpoint of $150M implies only modest recovery. The Ask Sage acquisition and international partnerships offer a longer-term growth narrative, but near-term execution risk remains elevated.

“At the start of 2025, we set out to transform our financial foundations to establish a base from which to accelerate in 2026. We have delivered exactly that. As of year-end 2025, BigBear.ai is in the strongest financial position in the company’s history. I am tremendously grateful to our team for the work they have done. We have reduced our debt by more than 90%, established a powerful cash position that gives us the freedom to invest in catalytic technologies, expanded internationally, and acquired two highly specialized technology companies which play directly into our two core markets in national security and travel & trade,” said Kevin McAleenan, CEO of BigBear.ai.

“The U.S. Government’s AI Acceleration Strategy plays directly to our strengths. Unlike many AI and technology companies, we deeply understand the reality operators face. Our national security customers and global partners need the ability to apply emerging tech securely, more rapidly and with greater flexibility than ever before to address emerging threats and challenges. And that’s what we intend to keep doing for them.”

“There were many significant milestones in 2025: we raised $693 million of proceeds from our ATM facilities and warrants; and closed the purchase of Ask Sage, the largest acquisition in BigBear’s history. Further, we have already started 2026 by settling our 2029 Notes, which amounted to $182 million in the beginning of 2025, and also closing on the acquisition of CargoSeer,” said Sean Ricker, CFO of BigBear.ai.

If you’re seeing reports of earnings or worrying about stock movements after hours, that is likely just noise.

We are seeing no earnings from ASTS yet.

Shares of BigBear.ai initially dropped nearly 8%, but have been holding around those levels. They’re currently down 7%.

It’s worth noting that adjusted EPS beat expectations despite the large revenue miss.

Here’s BigBear’s guidance:

• The Company projects full-year 2026 revenue between $135 million and $165 million, representing approximately 17% growth at the midpoint compared to full-year 2025 revenue of $128 million

At the midpoint, that’s $150 million. Analysts were hoping for a stronger rebound (about $165 million in expected sales in 2026). So, this is another miss that may be weighing on shares after hours.

And the headline figure is revenues came in at $27.3 million, significantly below expectations of $33.3 million.

Shares have immediately dropped 8% as revenue woes continue.

The market is closing for the day and BigBear.ai shares are up about 3.9%. That’s a very nice return for the day before tonight’s earnings.

Once again, simply stay on this page and new updates will appear automatically. We expect BigBear to report at about 4:15 p.m. ET. 

Shares of BigBear.ai are up about 2.27% in late trading today.

Across the past year, shares are down 15%.

The main challenge remains that revenues were $155 million in 2022, $155 in 2023, $158 in 2024, and are expected to be just $134 million this year.

Wall Street is expecting revenues to jump to $164 million in 2026. Yet, with revenues down across all of 2025, BigBear.ai will have to prove to the market it can deliver and justify more multiple expansion.