Live: Will BigBear.ai (BBAI) Pop After Tonight’s Earnings?

Here are some of the key areas of focus from BigBear’s conference call. This transcript snippet is thanks to Capital IQ, a division of S&P.

I’ve bolded the most important section, which is the appeal BigBear is trying to make. Essentially, the company is saying they’ve experienced an earnings disruptio,n but thanks to their balance sheet should be able to withstand the storm. With such poor results, investors aren’t convinced. Shares are down 28% after-hours.

Kevin McAleenan (CEO):

As mentioned, our balance sheet strength and cash position specifically puts us in a position to dramatically increase our rate of market capture and capitalize on these unprecedented tailwinds with conviction and agility. Our strategy is clear, go on offense, both by investing in our capability to pursue organic growth with our AI technology products and government solutions and through targeted acquisitions. On organic growth, we’re investing to supercharge our growth engine, specifically around capture campaigns pertaining to OB3, and the private sector security technology market. We will also be expanding our investment in marketing. Given the extent of the value that we could provide potential customers at this moment, we believe that broad awareness is critical, and we have the resources to support a much greater presence.

Talent, we’re attracting and retaining top-tier talent on both the tech and national security communities. As we expand into this new chapter, we will be bringing on senior advisers and operators that can further support our business and scaling to the next level.

Innovation. Our AI innovation agenda is advancing quickly, and we are focusing on both our core existing capabilities and on additional frontier innovation, including physical AI and [ Internet of Things ] integration and Agenetic systems that will operate in the real world to drive security and efficiency at scale.

Partnerships. We are deepening ties with strategic partners domestically and internationally to ensure our capabilities integrate seamlessly into the ecosystems that matter most and that we have distribution access that extends globally.

M&A. Most critically, we are actively pursuing strategic transformational acquisitions. We are looking at targets that will accelerate scale, unlock new markets and add step function and AI capability.

Let me close by bringing it all together. While we have experienced some contract disruption that has negatively impacted our financial results, this quarter should not be defined by it. Instead, the opportunities we have in this moment are defined by powerful market tailwinds, significant progress in the business and our technology and a strong financial posture going forward to take rapid advantage of the climate that we’re operating in. We are in the right markets with the right platforms, and we are proving that in the field. We intend to gain market share, win new customers, establish new partnerships and secure our place at the center of AI transformation in national and border security, transportation and mobility and critical infrastructure. We have the cash to invest, the conviction to advance and we’re building the team to execute. Thank you to our BigBear.ai team and our shareholders for your continued support. I look forward to speaking with all of you next quarter to update you on our progress.

We’ll be listening in on BigBear’s conference call.

The bad news, we’ll slow updates while listening.

The good news: if you stay on this page we will post a summary after.

You can register to listen in here.

Once again, if you leave this page open and refresh later, we will post a summary of BigBear’s call. It will be critical as it allows the company to explain the massive revenue shortfall they’re experiencing. 

Here’s the presentation BigBear drops alongside earnings.

The highlight seems to be the company’s cash balance. Which, it’s never great news when a company is emphasizing withstanding bad results, but that seems to be the focus.

Let’s get the bottom line out of the way: these earnings are bad.

The stock will be down tomorrow, and that’s a fair reaction.

Now, here’s the silver lining if you’re a BigBear shareholder…

Monday just dropped 30% today on a beat and raise. C3.ai (a close comparable to BigBear) posted earnings that are similarly ‘bad’ to BigBear and dropped less.

That is to say, a lot of the priciest AI software stocks like Monday are being relentlessly punished for what are very good earnings (in part because the stocks are priced at higher valuations).

Stocks like BigBear are posting larger earnings misses, but seeing less dramatic sell-offs.

I know that’s not a fun silver lining if you own BigBear, but it is a sort of silver lining.

BBAI | BigBear.ai Q2’25 Earnings Highlights:

• Adj. EPS: $(0.71) [❌];
• Revenue: $32.5M [✅]; DOWN -18% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 25.0% [✅]; DOWN -280 bps YoY
• Net Income: $(228.6)M [❌];
• Backlog: $380M
• Cash and Cash Equivalents: $390.8M

 Outlook:

• Revenue: $125M – $140M [➖]
  • The Company has adjusted its revenue guidance due to uncertainty on certain Army programs and anticipates growth investment spending in the second half of the year.
  • Management has withdrawn previously provided Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year-ended December 31, 2025, expecting to provide updated guidance later.

Other Key Q2 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $(90.3)M [❌];
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $21.5M [✅]; DOWN -8% YoY
• R&D Expenses: $4.4M [✅]; UP +23% YoY
• Free Cash Flow: $(3.9)M
• Effective Tax Rate: 0.01% (vs. 0.02% YoY)
• SG&A: $21.5M; DOWN -8% YoY
• Interest Expense: $4.4M; DOWN -31% YoY

CEO Commentary:

• Kevin McAleenan: “Our robust balance sheet allows us to make significant transformational investments to shape the future of BigBear.ai. Our capital raising activities this quarter coincide with the tremendous opportunities we see coming from the One Big Beautiful Bill, particularly in the Department of Homeland Security, and several of which are uniquely aligned to our core capabilities. This legislation will bring a generational investment and provides over $170 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Homeland Security, and $150 billion to the Department of Defense for disruptive defense technology. This is not incremental funding for innovation – this is a transformative level of investment. As a Mission Ready AI company with a national and border security focus, it’s directly in our lane.”

CFO Commentary:

• Sean Ricker: “Our record cash balance will enable us to make significant investments, both organically and inorganically, in an order of magnitude that was not possible before.”

There’s only one word for these earnings: yikes.

Revenue hit $32.74 million, Wall Street was expecting north of $40 million.

EPS is a big miss as well.

Well, we warned earlier its been a bad earnings season for AI software stocks and BigBear is the latest victim. Shares are down 18% initially on the print. Stay on this page and we will keep updating with news and analysis.

It’s 4:12 p.m. ET, and we expect earnings any minute. As a reminder, if you stay on this page updates should automatically load. If you’re not seeing updates in the next few mintues, make sure to manually refresh.

The moment BBAI reports we’ll be off to the races with news and analysis.

BigBear shares are up 4.4% after hours which could lead you to believe earnings have been released, but we’re still not seeing them. We’ll begin updating this page the moment we see earnings released.

We’ll be watching for BigBear’s earnings and posting updates as soon as we see them. However, we expect they’ll hit newswires at about 4:15 p.m. ET.

As you’re waiting – if you’re looking for more AI stock ideas, make sure to check out ‘The AI Investor Podcast from 24/7 Wall St.‘

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It’s a tough day for AI software stocks.

C3.ai (NYSE: AI) released preliminary sales numbers Friday after the market closed that were extremely disappointing. The company reported sales of between $70.2 million and $70.4 million for its Fiscal Q1. That’s a massive drop from sales of $87.2 million in the first quarter last year.

Monday‘s(Nasdaq: MNDY) financial figures weren’t nearly as bad as C3.ai, but the market’s reaction is even worse. The company has dropped 30% after significantly topping EPS expectations last quarter and raising full-year guidance.

Why are shares down? Forward guidance at the midpoint is slightly below Wall Street expectations.

The bottom line is that AI software has become a battleground, with companies issuing even small misses being severely punished. That’s a tough environment for BigBear headed into tonight’s earnings. We’ll see if the market is more forgiving of their results.

 BBAI’s 72% YTD stock gain underscores AI enthusiasm, yet post-earnings reactions vary—strong beats yield positive moves, misses trigger volatility. With federal uncertainties, sustained backlog conversion and efficiency gains are crucial for momentum.