Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY | LLY Price Prediction) stock has pulled back 2.9% year-to-date to around $1,044, and institutional investors have been accumulating shares during the pullback, according to recent filings.
The Earnings Machine
Lilly closed 2025 with back-to-back blowout quarters. Q4 revenue hit $19.29 billion against a consensus estimate of $18.14 billion, while non-GAAP EPS of $7.54 cleared the $6.74 estimate by nearly 12%. The quarter before, revenue beat by 9.5% and EPS beat by over 19%. Prediction markets assigned a 99.9% probability that Lilly would beat Q4 earnings before the report dropped. That level of consistency is exactly what institutional capital rewards.
Driving those results: Mounjaro generated $7.4 billion in Q4, up 110% year-over-year, while Zepbound added $4.2 billion, up 123%. The CFO noted that Zepbound holds nearly 70% share of new prescriptions in the branded obesity market, and Mounjaro commands over 55% of new prescriptions in the type 2 diabetes incretin market.
What Institutions Are Buying Into
Institutional ownership stands at 84.7% of shares outstanding. Recent filings show broad accumulation: American Century added 120,905 shares, increasing its stake by 6.6%; Andra AP fonden grew its position by 96.3%; River Wealth Advisors increased its holding by 10.9%; and Keystone Investors initiated a new position. The Wall Street consensus sits at 24 buys versus 1 sell, with an average price target of $1,214. RBC Capital just initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $1,250 price target, citing long-term obesity market leadership through 2030 and noting that current consensus estimates undervalue Lilly’s future growth potential.
The forward picture is what anchors that conviction. Management guided for $80 billion to $83 billion in 2026 revenue, with non-GAAP EPS of $33.50 to $35.00. Orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP-1, is expected to receive FDA approval in Q2 2026 and launch for chronic weight management in the US during 2026. Management views the oral market as additive rather than cannibalistic to injectables.
Beyond obesity, retatrutide, a triple agonist, showed average weight loss of 29% at 68 weeks in the TRIUMPH-4 trial, alongside a 76% reduction in knee pain scores. Six additional Phase 3 readouts are expected this year. Meanwhile, Lilly’s LillyPod supercomputer, built with Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and featuring 1,016 Nvidia B300 GPUs, is described as the most powerful owned by any pharmaceutical company and is designed to accelerate drug discovery through AI.
Insiders are also putting capital behind the thesis. On February 9, CEO David Ricks purchased approximately 38,914 shares at $1,044.67, part of a coordinated buy-in across 12 senior executives totaling roughly 99,805 shares and approximately $104.3 million in aggregate value. That kind of breadth across the C-suite is difficult to dismiss as routine.
Key upcoming catalysts include the orforglipron FDA decision expected in Q2, six retatrutide Phase 3 readouts, and the Medicare obesity access program launch no later than July 1, 2026.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks