Eli Lilly Price Prediction: This Is Where The Stock Will End This Year

Few stocks have polarized investors in 2026 like Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction). After a stunning Q1 earnings report and raised full-year guidance, the question is whether the valuation has run ahead of fundamentals. Here is where I land on the $1,000 debate.

The 24/7 Wall St. Price Target for Eli Lilly

Eli Lilly trades at $948.45 as of writing. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is $1,085 over the next 12 months, implying roughly 14.3% upside. The recommendation is buy with a confidence level of 70%. Management raised guidance, Mounjaro is now the best-selling drug globally, and Foundayo opened a new oral-GLP-1 chapter.

From $640 Lows to a Blowout Q1

Lilly is up 26.43% over the past year and 424.27% over five years, but down 9.13% year to date after peaking near the $1,132.06 52-week high. Q1 2026 reset the narrative. Revenue came in at $19.80 billion, up 55.5% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $8.55 beat consensus by $6.79. Mounjaro delivered $8.66 billion, overtaking Merck (NYSE:MRK)’s Keytruda as the world’s top-selling drug. Shares jumped 9.8% on the report and added another 4.32% in the week since.

Why Bulls See a Breakout Toward $1,230

The bull case is straightforward. Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $1,230 with an Overweight rating, citing Mounjaro demand and Foundayo momentum. Foundayo, the only oral GLP-1 dosable any time without food or water, reached 20,000 patients with 80% of scripts from new-to-class users. Barclays has raised the price target to $1,400 with an Overweight rating. 

Retatrutide’s Phase 3 readout delivered 11.1 to 16.6 kilograms weight loss, with a full consumer campaign set for Q3. International revenue is growing 81%. If Foundayo inflects in 2027 and retatrutide adds a second leg, $1,230 looks reachable.

The Risks Worth Watching

The bear case starts with concentration. Mounjaro plus Zepbound generated roughly $12.8 billion of the $19.80 billion Q1 total, and pricing is eroding. Realized prices fell 13%, with full-year price headwinds guided to low to mid-teens.

Lilly Endowment recently sold 15,828 shares near $995, and a Form 144 disclosed a 300,000-share proposed sale. Bulls counter that the $584 million IPR&D charge and $279 million in restructuring costs are non-recurring, and 65% volume growth proves elasticity offsets price. A bear scenario targets roughly $820, a 24 forward multiple on guidance’s low end.

The Bottom Line: Mind the Pricing Curve

Our price target is $1,085 with a buy recommendation and 70% confidence. The deciding factor is raised guidance: management lifted the revenue range to $82 billion to $85 billion after one quarter, with Foundayo contribution still ahead. The thesis strengthens if the next two quarters confirm Foundayo’s payer access translates into prescription velocity. The setup weakens if pricing concessions deepen beyond mid-teens or pharma tariffs materialize in 2026 guidance.

Our model projects Lilly’s trajectory assuming current growth and gradual multiple compression as the GLP-1 franchise matures.

These projections assume Lilly executes on Foundayo, retatrutide, and international expansion. Significant upside or downside could result from biosimilar entry or breakthrough data from competitors like Novo Nordisk and Structure Therapeutics.