Iridium, AST SpaceMobile, and Redwire: The Biggest Space Stock Movers in February

February 2026 drew a sharp line through the space and aerospace sector. On one side: defense giants riding a wave of geopolitical demand, record backlogs, and earnings beats. On the other: pure-play space names getting punished by dilution fears, execution questions, and a broader rotation away from high-risk growth.

The month told two very different stories depending on which side of that line your portfolio sat. Let’s look at what space stocks were the biggest winners and losers in February, and then we’ll focus in on news around Iridium (Nasdaq: IRDM), AST SpaceMobile (Nasdaq: ASTS), and Redwire (NYSE: RDW).

As you’ll see, while AST was one of the biggest losers in February, its fortunes have quickly changed in March.

February’s Biggest Winners and Losers

The Bigger Picture: Defense Up, Pure-Play Space Struggling

Zoom out to the year-to-date view and the trend becomes even clearer. Defense names have been on a tear. Lockheed Martin is up +38.78% YTD, Northrop Grumman +33.55%, and L3Harris +25.35%, all powered by the Iranian conflict, rising NATO commitments, and a ~$1 trillion national security budget. Meanwhile, pure-play space names have absorbed real pain. SPCE is down -20.87% YTD and TRMB has dropped -11.73%.

The one exception worth noting: AST SpaceMobile has bounced hard off its February lows. ASTS is up +27.61% YTD, a recovery story we will get to in a moment.

Iridium: February’s Quiet Standout

Iridium was the month’s most surprising winner, gaining over 20% in February. The company reported revenue of $212.94M on February 12, roughly flat year over year, with EPS of $0.24 against a $0.2365 estimate. Not a blowout quarter by any measure. But in a month when speculative satellite names were getting crushed, Iridium’s stability looked like a virtue.

The company’s 2026 OEBITDA guidance of $480M to $490M and service revenue growth guidance of flat to 2% are not exciting numbers. But Iridium’s L-band satellite network is genuinely hard to replicate, the subscriber base is sticky, and the company isn’t burning cash chasing satellites it hasn’t built yet. In February, boring was beautiful. Iridium now trades at $24.41, up 40.45% year to date.

AST SpaceMobile: A Brutal February, Then a Snapback

ASTS had one of the roughest Februarys in the space sector, falling nearly 29% from its late-January high. The culprit was dilution anxiety. On February 12, the company announced a proposed $1.0 billion convertible senior notes offering due 2036, which hit Reddit hard. Sentiment scores on r/wallstreetbets dropped into bearish territory almost immediately, with the announcement generating 332 upvotes and 151 comments in the first hours. The conversation stayed negative through mid-month, with a broader “space stocks bubble” thread amplifying the selling pressure around February 16.

But then the company reported earnings. On March 2, AST SpaceMobile posted revenue of $54.31M, up 2,731% year over year, a +28.56% beat versus the $42.24M estimate and a staggering 2,731% year-over-year growth rate. We were live-blogging the earnings, and while the reaction was initially muted, once AST provided guidance that revenues could hit $1 billion in 2027, shares began to take off.

CEO Abel Avellan framed the quarter plainly:

“For the first time in 2025, AST SpaceMobile became a revenue generating business and it significantly advanced all key aspects of our operations including commercial, government, manufacturing, spectrum rights, IP portfolio, and capital position.”

The company now holds $3.9B+ pro forma liquidity (including $1.07B convertible notes), has $1.2B+ in partner commitments including a $175M prepayment from stc Group, and is targeting 45-60 satellites in orbit by end of 2026. The stock has recovered sharply. ASTS now trades at $105.77, up another 14% today. Wall Street upgrades are helping today with several analysts ratcheting up their price targets on the company.

Redwire: Growing Revenue, Widening Losses

Redwire filed its Q4 earnings on February 25, and the results were a mixed bag that the market treated as a net negative. Revenue came in at $108.79M, up 56.4% year over year, and the company reported a record backlog of $411.25M with a Q4 book-to-bill of 1.52. Those are genuinely strong operating metrics.

The problem was everything below the revenue line. Redwire posted a net loss of -$85.47M, adjusted EBITDA of -$18.05M (worse than the prior year’s -$9.15M), and absorbed a $34.69M impairment charge alongside negative EAC adjustments on development programs. The company guided 2026 revenue of $450M to $500M, which implies continued strong top-line growth, but investors are watching the cash burn closely. RDW currently trades at $9.15, down 26.9% over the past year. The revenue growth story is real. The path to profitability is not yet.

What to Watch in March

March brings a few catalysts worth tracking. The NVIDIA GTC Conference is the headliner for the broader tech sector, and its relevance to space is growing fast. Satellite imagery processing, AI-driven ground station software, and edge compute for LEO constellations are all areas where NVIDIA’s GPU roadmap intersects directly with names like ASTS and RDW. Any commentary on space or defense AI applications could move sentiment in the sector.

On the defense side, watch for any further developments around Operation Absolute Resolve and Congressional budget action. Lockheed’s $194B record backlog and Northrop’s $95.68B backlog give both companies extraordinary revenue visibility, but the geopolitical temperature determines how fast those orders accelerate.

February made the sector’s fault lines impossible to ignore. Defense names with government contracts, proven hardware, and political tailwinds are being rewarded. Pure-play space companies building the next generation of connectivity infrastructure are being punished for every dilutive financing move, even when the underlying business is improving. That dynamic is unlikely to resolve quickly, which means March will probably look a lot like February: volatile, bifurcated, and unforgiving to anyone caught on the wrong side of the trade.