Live Earnings Analysis: Broadcom (AVGO) Wows Wall Street With $100 Billion AI Forecast

Broadcom’s (AVGO) conference call is winding down, and we’ll also be winding down updates on this live blog. Once again, we hope you’ve enjoyed it as we’ve provided more than 25 updates since Broadcom’s earnings were released.

The bottom line is that Broadcom shares are now up 5%. CEO Hock Tan clearly came into this call wanting to wow investors, and he’s done that. Here’s three big takeways from the call:

• Customer Relationships Look Strong: The ongoing concern for Broadcom is that customers may be backing away from custom chip deals. Google is actively working to create multiple TPUs, there have been rumors Meta was scaling back their custom chip project, and Wall Street was disappointed last quarter with the small size of Meta’s new customer announcement. Hock Tan aimed to change that perception tonight but specifically citing the size of specific customer engagements.
• 2027 Estimates Will Need to Go Up: Hock Tan repeatedly emphasized 2027 revenue targets tonight. The big question in the coming weeks will be what exactly is embedded in his $100 billion in AI revenue forecast. Wall Street poked at this repeatedly in the call, and Tan sometimes answered and sometimes dodged. This uncertainty could lead to limiting gains tomorrow, but my guess is you’re going to see a lot of upgrades on the stock as Wall Street takes estimates for 2027 up. This call is likely the catalyst needed to move Broadcom shares out of the range they’ve been trading in the past six months.
• 2028 Becomes the New Question: Wall Street analysts began asking about 2028 on the call. Hock Tan answered whether the company can continue growing that year with a simple ‘yes’ that didn’t provide much added commentary. NVIDIA now trades for forward multiples below the market average because of fears that hyperscaler growth is so furious in 2026 and 2027 that it will hit a wall in 2028. Tan will have a few quarters where he can refine 2027 estimates, but eventually he’ll need to sell Wall Street on the idea that growth can truly continue beyond the next 24 months.

You’ve got to hand it to Wall Street analysts; they find some clever ways to ask about how to model future years.

Veteran analyst Stacy Rasgon found a way to ask Broadcom’s (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan about the $100 billion forecast for 2027 chip sales in another way.

Basically, he tried working backward from gigawatts shipped to see just how much higher than $100 billion this number could be. Here’s the full exchange:

Stacy Rasgon Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, Research Division

I don’t know if this is for Hock or Kirsten, but I wanted to dig in a little more to this substantially more than $100 billion next year. I’m trying to just count up the gigawatts. I counted, I don’t know, 8 or 9, you have 3 from Anthropic, one from open AI, so that’s 4.

You said Meta was multiple, so east, that gets you to 6.

Google, I figure should be bigger than Meta.so like at least 3, that’s 9 and then you got a few others. . I just thought that your content per gigawatt was sort of, call it, a $20 billion per gigawatt range. I guess what I’m asking, is my math around the gigawatts you plan to ship in 27 correct?

And how do I think about your content per gigawatt as that ships — maybe we’ll be “substantially” more than $100 billion.

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

Stacy, you have a very interesting perspective, and I’ve got to commend you for that. But you’re right. You can look at it a gigawatts, which is the right way to look at it instead of dollars because that’s how we sell our chips.

So you have to realize we — depending on our LLM customer, our 6 customers, sorry, not 5. The dollars per gigawatt is varies, sometimes quite dramatically. — it does vary. But you’re right. It’s so far from the dollars you are talking about. And if you look at it by gigawatt in ’27, we are seeing getting close to 10 gigawatts. 

Broadcom shares keep rising as this (very bullish) call continues.

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Earlier, I mentioned how Broadcom (AVGO) is forecasting 40% of AI sales will be networking next quarter and that implies absolutely massive growth in that business.

Wall Street picked up on this too and just asked about what kind of revenue mix Broadcom is expecting in the future:

“Ross Seymore Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

In your script, you leaned a little bit more into the networking differentiation than you have in the past. So I guess kind of a short-term and a longer-term question. The short term is, what’s driving that up to 40% of the AI revenues? And the longer-term question is, is that going — that percentage mix in that $100 billion plus, is that changing now what sort of leadership do you expect to maintain in that business, whether it’s scale out or scale up? And is your leadership position there helping on your XPU side as you can optimize across both the compute and the networking side.

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

Well, let’s address the first part of that fairly complex question first, Ross. Yes, in networking, especially with the new generation of GPUs, XPUs that are coming out there.

We’re running at 200 gigabit SERDES out there in terms of bandwidth. And the Tomahawks that we introduced over 6 months ago a closer to 9 months ago. We’re the only one out there. And our customers and the hyperscalers wants to run with the best networking and with the most bandwidth we found there for their clusters.

So we are seeing huge demand for this only 100 terabit per second switch out there. So that’s driving a lot of demand. And couple that we’re running bandwidth on scaling out optical transceivers at 1.6 terabits. We are, again, the only player out there doing DSP at 1.6 terabits.

That combination is driving, I would say, the growth of our networking components, even faster than our XPUs are growing, which is already pretty remarkable. So that’s what you’re seeing. But at some point, I would think these things will settle down, though. We’re not slowing down the pace because, as I said, next in ’27, we’ll launch next-generation Tomahawk 7, 2x the performance and will probably be by far, the first out there, and then we’ll continue to sustain that momentum. And — but at the end of the day, to answer your question, yes, I expect as the composition of our total AI revenue in any quarter that we’ll be ranging between probably 33% to 40% AI networking components.”

The bottom line here is don’t expect networking to continue growing as a percentage, but stay in a ‘channel’ of 33% to 40% of AI sales depending on product launches.

We’re deep into Broadcom’s conference call, and if you’ve been following along, you can see it’s been an all-timer.

(We thank you for joining, and hope it’s been a lot of fun and you’ve learned a lot!) 

Another major exchange just happened. In short, one of Wall Street’s biggest concerns is hyperscalers like Google getting more leverage on Broadcom by moving to CoT, or ‘Customer Owned Tooling.’

One of the most knowledgeable semiconductor analysts (Harlan Sur) asked Hock Tan about this directly, and here’s what he had to say:

Harlan L. Sur JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Congratulations to the team on the strong results. There’s been a lot of noise around CSPs and hyperscalers embarking on their own internal XPU TPU design efforts, right? We call it COT or customer-owned tooling. This is not a new dynamic with ASIC, right?

I think the Broadcom team has been through the COT competitive dynamic before over the 30 years, right, that you’ve been a leader in the ASIC industry and very few of these COT initiatives have ever been successful. Now on the AI, some of these COT initiatives are coming to the market now, but it looks like — they’re at these 2x less performance in your current generation solutions, 2X less complex in terms of chip design complexity, packaging complexity, IP.

So maybe just a quick 2-part question. Hock, one for you is given your visibility into next year, do you see the COT [indiscernible] projects taking any meaningful TPU XPU share from Broadcom? And then maybe the second quick question for, Charlie, is given that Broadcom’s TPU XPU programs from a performance complexity IP perspective are 12 to 18 months ahead of any of these COT programs, how does Broadcom team widen this gap further?

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

Well, that’s a great question. And it fits into that — I purposely took the time in my opening remarks to say that when any of our — any I guess, hyperscaler or LLM developer tries to create become self-sufficient entirely in creating what you call customer-owned tooling or COT model, they face tremendous challenges. One is technology. which is a technology as it relates to creating the silicon chips and particularly in XPUs that they need to do the computing and that is needed to optimize and run an inference on the workloads they produce their LLM.

It’s technology we talked about comes in from different dimensions. We need the best silicon design team around, you need cutting-edge, really cutting-edge SERDES, very advanced packaging. And most — and just as much you need to understand how to network clusters of them together. We’ve been doing this for 20 years — more than 20 years in silicon and in this particular space today in generative AI.

If you’re trying to as an LLM player to do your own chip, you cannot afford to have a chip that is just good enough. You need the best chips that is around because you’re competing against other LLM players. And most of all, you’re also competing against NVIDIA, who is by no means letting down their [ gun ]. They are producing better and better chips with every passing generation. So you have to, as an LLM, trying to establish our platform in the world, have to create chips that are better than if not competitive, not just in NVIDIA, but all the other platform players that you’re competing against.

And for that, you really need own belief, and we see that percent — partner in silicon with the best technology, IP and execution around. And very modestly, I would say, we are by far way out there. And we will not see competition in COT for many years to come. It will come eventually, but we’re still a long way off because the race which we see continues. And 1 thing I add in there that is particularly unique to us, when you create the silicon, you really have to get it up and running in high volume in production very quickly, time to market.

We are very, very experienced in doing that. Anybody can design a chip in a lab that works well. Can you produce 100,000 of those chips quickly at yields that you can — that you can afford? And we don’t see too many players in the world that can do that. Charlie?

An analyst just asked about the $100 billion figure we detailed earlier to see what business lines it included. Tan walked the number back a bit (it includes more than XPUs), which could be why the stock has seen shares come back some after initially popping more than 4%. Here’s the exchange in full:

Brett Simpson Arete Research Services LLP

Just a clarification on the question. Just a clarification, Hock, the greater than $100 billion. I think you said AI chips. I just want to make sure you’re clarifying the difference between the ASICs and networking and didn’t know how rack revenue fits in there. And then the question, I think the biggest overhang on the group here is that you grew roughly double in the quarter AI. I think that’s what kind of cloud CapEx is growing this year.

I’m just kind of curious to your perspective. I think given the outlook that you have for ’27, you should be a share gainer. I’m just kind of curious to your perspective in terms of the pessimism that investors kind of think of that the hyperscalers need to get a return on investment in this year or next year or if not the year after? I’m just kind of curious, your perspective, how you factor that into your outlook?

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

Well, what we see — what we’ve seen over the last few months and continue to see even more is — and it’s really not so much talking about hyperscalers. Our customers, Blayne, is limited to those few players out there, and some of them are hyperscalers. Some of them are non-hyperscalers, but they all have one thing in common, which is to create LLMs, productize it and generate platforms, be it for enterprise consumption, in code assistance, agentic AI or be it for consumer subscription that we know about whatever it is, is that few prospects and many of whom are our customers now, who are creating this — whether it’s generative AI, agejntic AI, but creating a platform.

That’s our customer. And with respect to each of those guys, we have seen far stronger and stronger demand for compute capacity for training, which is something they do need constantly. But what is very, very interesting and surprising to us is very much for inference in order to productize the LLM, their latest LLMs they create and monetize it. And that inference is driving a substantial amount of compute capacity, which is great for us because this — or these players, these 5, 6 customers of ours on their path to creating their own custom accelerators. And beyond that, their own design architecture of networking clusters of those customer accelerators.

So I think we’re going to see demand picking up as we have heard announcements in the past 6 months. Now to clarify your first part, Blayne. When I say we forecast, we have a line of sight that our revenue in ’27 will be significantly in excess of $100 billion, I’m focusing on the fact that these are pretty much all based on chips, whether they are XPUs, whether they are switch chips DSPs, these are silicon content we’re talking about.

Here’s another very bullish quote from Broadcom (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan about networking:

“Consistent with the strong outlook for XPUs, demand for AI networking is accelerating. AI networking revenue grew 60% year-on-year and represented 1/3 of total AI revenue. In Q2, we project AI networking to accelerate a lot more and grow to 40% of total AI revenue. We are clearly gaining share in networking. Let me explain in scale out, our first-to-market Tomahawk 6 switch at 100 terabit per second as well as our [ 200G30 ] are capturing demand from hyperscalers, whether they use XPUs or GPUs. This lead will extend in ’27 with our next-generation Tomahawk featuring double the performance.”

That’s an eye-opening quote. If networking revenue is going to grow from 1/3 of AI revenue to 40%, it implies absolutely massive growth rates for the unit.

Once again, we have a 3% reaction after-hours, but it looks like Wall Street is going to need to take their models on Broadcom up quite a bit after these earnings. That could mean weeks of new price targets and adjustments to 2027 EPS which could be a strong tailwind for the stock beyond just a one day reaction. 

Broadcom (AVGO) shares are now holding at 4% gains. Here’s another striking quote from the call from CEO Hock Tan:

“Today, in fact, we have line of sight to achieve AI revenue from chips, just chips in excess of $100 billion in 2027. We have also secured the supply chain required to achieve this. Now turning to non-AI semiconductors. Q1 revenue of $4.1 billion was flat year-on-year, in line with guidance. Enterprise networking, broadband server storage revenues were up year-on-year, offset by a seasonal decline in wireless.”

Wall Street is currently modeling $136 billion for the entire company’s revenue in 2027. As a reminder, Tan’s quote here appears to be just for their XPU business.

We just posted the full quote from Broadcom (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan, but he just provided a massive update on custom chip projects and what kind of demand growth they’re expected to see into 2027. Here are the key areas that are causing shares to surge (now up 5% and continuing to rise)

• Tan now expects OpenAI to deploy their first-geneation XPU in 2027 and it will exceed 1 gigawatt
• He said Anthropic’s 2027 demand to exceed 3 gigawatts
• He said contrary to reports, their project with Meta is alive and well and shipping
• Tan also noted their ‘customers 4 and 5’ expect to see shipments more than double in 2027.

In short, Tan just ’emptied the chamber’ on updates for their projects outside Google and the message is clear to Wall Street: your 2027 numbers are too low. 

As we noted earlier, Broadcom trades at 22X 2027 earnings. This long list of projects could be enough to cause Broadcom shares to once again gain. This is a clear catalyst for major Wall Street revisions.

We told you to wait for the earnings call – we just highlighted the quote of interest, and now shares are moving. They immediately surged nearly 4%.

This is why you always wait for Broadcom’s earnings call. And what other sites are updating a live blog during it? We’ll keep providing updates.

It hasn’t taken long for Hock Tan to get to some interesting information.

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ji. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. In our fiscal Q1 2026, total revenue reached a record $19.3 billion and that’s up 29% year-on-year and exceeding our guidance on the back of better-than-expected growth in AI and semiconductors.

This top line strength translated into exceptional profitability with Q1 consolidated adjusted EBITDA, hitting a record $13.1 billion which is 68% of revenue. These figures demonstrate that our scale continues to drive significant operating leverage. Now we expect this momentum to accelerate as our custom AI XPUs hit the next phase of deployment among our 5 customers. So looking ahead to next quarter, Q2 ’26, we’re guiding for consolidated revenue of approximately $22 billion, which represents 47% year-on-year growth.

Let me now give you more color on our semiconductor business. In Q1, revenue was a record $12.5 billion as year-on-year growth accelerated to 52%. This robust growth was driven by AI and semiconductor revenue, which grew 106% year-on-year to $8.4 billion, way above our outlook.

In Q2, this momentum accelerates, and we expect semiconductor revenue to be $14.8 billion, up 76% year-on-year. Driving this is AI revenue growth, which will accelerate very sharply to 140% year-on-year to $10.7 billion. Now our custom accelerator business grew 140% year-on-year in Q1.

This momentum continues in Q2. The ramp of custom AI accelerators across all our 5 customers is progressing very well. For Google, we continue our trajectory of growth in ’26 with strong demand for the seventh-generation Ironwood TPU. In 2027 and beyond, we expect to see even stronger demand from next generations of TPU.

For Anthropic, we are off to a very good start in 2026 for 1 gigawatt of TPU compute. And for ’27, this demand is expected to surge in excess of 3 gigawatts of compute.

Our XPU franchise, I should add, extends beyond GPUs. Now contrary, the recent analyst reports Meta’s custom accelerator MTIA roadmap is alive and well. We’re shipping now. And in fact, for the next generation XPUs, we will scale to multiple [ gigawatts ] in ’27 and beyond.

Rounding off for customers 4 and 5, we see strong shipments this year and which we expect to more than double in 2027.

We also now have a sixth customer. We expect OpenAI deploying in volume, their first-generation XPU in 2027 and over 1 gigawatt of compute capacity.

Let me take a second to emphasize our collaboration with these 6 customers to develop AI XPUs is deep, strategic and multiyear. We bring to the partnerships, each of them unmatched technology in service, silicon design, process and acknowledging, advanced packaging and networking to enable each of these customers to achieve optimal performance for their differentiated LLM workloads.”

As we await Broadcom’s conference call to get to CEO Hock Tan’s speaking portion, we’re reflecting on their last call.

Broadcom delivered results that beat Wall Street, but fell more than 11% the next day.

That might remind you of NVIDIA, which recently delivered blowout earnings, initially rose 3%, and then plummeted in the next few trading days.

If Hock Tan is quiet tonight or doesn’t offer meaningful updates, I’d expect Broadcom could be down 5% or more tomorrow.

If he provides very bullish commentary on the company’s backlog and future bookings expectations, Broadcom could rally tomorrow.

We’ll find out which direction the stock is likely to move in the next hour.

Broadcom’s conference call is starting now. As a reminder, there’s normally about 20 minutes of repeating already known stats before the ‘good stuff’ starts.

Our updates may slow a little bit here as we wait for Broadcom’s conference call.

The calls always start with a restatement of earnings and it normally takes about 20 minutes to ‘get to the good stuff.’

However, we will post the most important updates from the call. As a reminder, simply stay on this page and updates will load automatically. 

If you’re a Broadcom investor, the conference call is the most important part of their earnings. So I strongly encourage you to leave this page open and come back to see what CEO Hock Tan said on the call.

Broadcom’s (AVGO) conference call begins at 5 p.m. ET, or about 15 minutes away.

You can listen here if you’d like.

We’ll provide updates during the call, but here’s what we’re lookign for:

• Backlog Growth: Broadcom had $73 billion in AI backlog last quarter, what number will they update to?
• Updates on Hyperscale Customers: Broadcom has gained as hyperscalers have selected the company for custom chips. Broadcom has benefited handsomely from its TPU project with Google. What other updates will it provide on other projects?
• The Unexpected: Broadcom CEO Hock Tan is one of the best operators in the business. In the past, he’s saved earnings calls for announcements like a massive ‘Serviceable Addressable Market’ number that stunned Wall Street. Shares dropped after their last quarterly earnings mostly because Wall Street expected a ‘wow’ factor that never came. We’ll see what Hock Tan has in store today.

We’re catching our breath here after the initial analysis of Broadcom’s earnings.

As we’ve noted, the next major event will be the company’s earnings call that begins at 5 p.m. ET. 

We’ll update with major news from that call. Simply leave this page open and our updates will appear automatically.

We’ll mention one more time if you’ve enjoyed this live blog. I host a podcast where I break down all the biggest news in AI and provide free stock recommendations!

Check out our 24/7 Wall St.’s AI Investor Podcast.

I host the podcast and give away recommendations that fill out a portfolio we’re expanding to a million dollars in capital. Past recommendations included:

• Broadcom: Up 77% since our first recommendation
• Ciena: Up 391%
• Lumentum: Up 711%
• Credo: 269%
• Coherent: Up 261%
• Applied Optoelectronics: Up 346%

Once again, it’s a free podcast, all you have to do is take a moment and subscribe in your favorite podcast player to receive new episodes. In the next episode, we’ll issue new buy recommendations and review Broadcom’s earnings. 

Click here to check the podcast out. I’ve also embedded the most recent episode below, where we issued five new buy recommendations.

Shares of Broadcom are now moving up some, up about .8%.

Here’s a striking figure that shows how much Broadcom’s AI business is accelerating:

• In Q4 last year, the company grew AI semi revenue by 74%
• In Q1 (the earnings the company just announced), AI semi revenue grew 106%
• In Q2 (their guidance for next quarter), AI semi revenue is projected to grow 143%

This exteme acceleration is a key reason why Broadcom shares are up 70% across the past year.

Wall Street expects Broadcom to make $14.56 in adjusted earnings next fiscal year. That puts the company at about 21.7X Fiscal 2027 earnings.

Broadcom shares are still flat after earnings.

Let’s look at the pros and cons from their quarterly earnings release:

Pros: 

• Guidance of $22 billion is extremely strong and tops Wall Street’s expectations of $20.4 billion.
• Not only did the company guide to higher revenues, they also edged up adjusted EBITDA guidance to 68% from guiding to 67% this quarter.
• Semiconductor revenue beat expectations in Q1 and AI revenue for next quarter was guided to $10.7 billion, continuing strong sequential growth.

Cons:

• Revenue for last quarter was fairly inline, which is broadly disappointing.
• The company’s software unit logged just 1% annual growth and missed Wall Street expectations.

As a reminder, we expect management commentary on AI backlog on the company’s conference call to drive most of the reaction tomorrow.

Broadcom is guiding to AI revenue of $10.7 billion next quarter. Some of the relative weakness in revenue in Q1 was due to infrastructure software coming in at $6.8 billion.

That’s only 1% year-over-year growth.

That’s not great, but the ‘buy thesis’ for Broadcom no longer hinges much on their software sales. As long as semiconductor and AI revenue is solid, the Street can overlook that.

Sorry, we just had some technical difficulties that deleted a couple posts.

One note that’s caught our eyes – adjusted EBITDA guidance of 68%. That’s better than the guidance Broadcom issued last quarter.

Shares have continued moving down after Broadcom released earnings.

One number we’re staying at, guidance of $22 billion in revenue next quarter seems very healthy, and is a big beat on Wall Street’s expectations of $20.4 billion.

Broadcom’s earnings just released, here are the biggest figures you need to know:

• Revenue: $19.3 billion
• Earnings:$2.05

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected.

Shares are moving down 1% immediately after the release.

We will continue updating this live blog with news and analysis as we review the earnings. 

We are just minutes from Broadcom’s earnings. Here are the key things to remember:

• We expect earnings to drop at 4:15 p.m. ET. Any stock movement before then is likely just noise.
• Wall Street expects revenue of $19.1 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.02.
• Guidance for Q2 likely needs to be around $21 billion for shares to gain after earnings drop.
• We expect the biggest movement to come during Broadcom’s earnings call, so if you see an immediate reaction, shares could move dramatically after 5 p.m. 
• This live blog is your number one source for news. Simply leave it open and new updates will post automatically. We’ll listen in to Broadcom’s earnings call and give you the most important information and quotes.

If you’re a Broadcom investor and are looking for ways to stay updated on AI news, check out 24/7 Wall St.’s AI Investor Podcast.

I host the podcast and give away recommendations that fill out a portfolio we’re expanding to a million dollars in capital. Past recommendations included:

• Broadcom: Up 77% since our first recommendation
• Ciena: Up 391%
• Lumentum: Up 711%
• Credo: 269%
• Coherent: Up 261%
• Applied Optoelectronics: Up 346%

Once again, it’s a free podcast, all you have to do is take a moment and subscribe in your favorite podcast player to receive new episodes. In the next episode, we’ll issue new buy recommendations and review Broadcom’s earnings. 

Click here to check the podcast out. I’ve also embedded the most recent episode below where we issued five new buy recommendations.

Here’s what Wall Street expects from Broadcom (AVGO) in Q2:

• Revenue: $20.4 billinon
• Adjusted EPS: $2.16

What number will Broadcom have to deliver to top Wall Street’s ‘whisper numbers?’

HSBC published an earnings preview this morning and projected the company will guide to $21 billion in revenue. That would be about a 3% beat.

That’s probably about the over/under that the buy side expects tonight. Anything under that number could cause an initial negative reaction, while anything over it could lead to shares moving north before Broadcom’s conference call.

We are now just 30 minutes from Broadcom’s earnings tonight.

(Once again, we expect the company to report at about 4:15 p.m., or 15 minutes after the market closes tonight)

Broadcom has a long history of beating earnings (they’ve beaten in the last 8 quarters), and prediction market traders are assigning a 95% probability the company will beat earnings of $2.02 in EPS tonight.

As we noted earlier, expect Wall Street to focus the most on the company’s conference call. One great thing about following a live-blog, we will be the only source analyzing earnings AND the conference call. 

That’s right, you can get the full analysis on Broadcom’s call simply by leave this page open and letting new updates load.

One area we’ll be focusing on the most on the conference call is what update Broadcom provides on their AI backlog. It was $73 billion last quarter, and the company has noted at investing conferences with analysts that number has risen.

But how high has it risen to? The number Broadcom provides tonight on AI backlog will likely shape where shares trade tomorrow.

Broadcom shares are down about 8% year-to-date, trailing the Nasdaq. Yet, the stock is gaining today before earnings. Broadcom is up about 2.1% as of 3 p.m. ET.

That price move is almost identical to NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA), which is also up 2.1% today. Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) has seen one of the bigger moves in semiconductors today, up 6.5%.