Live: Rigetti Computing Reports Q4 Earnings Tonight
Quick Read
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Rigetti Computing (RGTI) reports Q4 earnings after the bell. As a largely pre-revenue company, Wall Street will be more focused on management commentary about future demand and product milestones.
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We’ll be updating this live blog. All you have to do is stay on this page and new updates will post automatically. We expect Rigetti earnings to cross newswires at 4:05 p.m. ET.
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Top Questions Analysts Are Likely to During Conference Call
With the earnings release behind us, attention turns to the 5:00 PM ET conference call starting shortly. Here is what investors should listen for.
- Revenue visibility: With Q4 coming in at $1.87M against a $2.33M estimate, when does the $8.4M C-DAC order hit the income statement?
- Commercialization: How does the 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity prototype milestone translate into paying customers?
- Capital allocation: With $589.8M in cash, what is the Fab-1 expansion plan and does it require additional dilution?
- DARPA QBI Stage B: Any update on reconsideration prospects?
- 2026 guidance: Will management offer a revenue range given the lumpy contract model?
Red Flags to Watch
- Vague timelines on C-DAC revenue recognition
- Any hint of additional equity raises beyond the existing ATM
- Silence on 100+ qubit system delivery confirmation
Buzzwords to Track
- “Quantum advantage,” “chiplet architecture,” “fault tolerance,” “NVQLink,” “hybrid quantum-classical”
Bull vs. Bear Case for Rigetti After Earnings
With Q4 results now out and the stock trading at $17.76, up 4.72% from yesterday’s close, here is where the two camps stand.
Bull Case
- A $589.8M cash balance provides years of runway with no near-term dilution pressure
- The 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity milestone at 28ns on a prototype platform signals meaningful technical progress toward quantum advantage
- Partnerships with Quanta Computer and NVIDIA open commercial and AI-integration pathways
- Government contracts across DARPA, AFOSR, and Innovate UK anchor near-term revenue
Bear Case
- Q4 revenue of $1.87M missed the $2.33M estimate, extending a multi-quarter trend of top-line disappointment
- Operating loss of $22.6M this quarter shows burn remains elevated
- Commercial quantum advantage has no firm timeline, keeping revenue visibility limited
- Heavy dependence on government funding creates concentration risk
What changes this quarter
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Achieved 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity on prototype platform
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Secured $8.4M purchase order from India’s C-DAC for 108-qubit system
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Advanced shipment timeline for previously announced $5.7M Novera systems
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Cash remains robust at nearly $590M
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Revenue declined year-over-year to $1.87M from $2.27M
Commercial revenue remains small, but backlog and system orders are building.
Key Operating Highlights
The biggest surprise was the 99.9% fidelity milestone on a prototype platform, that materially narrows the gap toward the 99.9% threshold management has historically cited for quantum advantage.
| KPI | Update | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Prototype Fidelity | 99.9% two-qubit at 28ns | Approaching quantum advantage threshold |
| 108-Qubit System | 99% median two-qubit fidelity | Demonstrates scaling progress |
| 9-Qubit System | 99.7% median fidelity | Strong small-scale performance |
| Cash Balance | $589.8M | Strong runway, no near-term dilution pressure |
| Q4 Operating Loss | $22.6M | Stable burn relative to prior quarters |
What Management Has To Say
CEO Subodh Kulkarni emphasized progress in “fidelity, scale, and system architecture,” highlighting improvements across monolithic and chiplet systems and reiterating focus on practical quantum advantage.
Rigetti believes its vertically integrated model and chiplet architecture are accelerating iteration and protecting IP as it scales beyond 100 qubits.
Another view at if the firm is validating technological prowess.
Earnings Numbers Are Out
Revenue missed modestly, but the real headline is a 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28ns gate speed on a prototype platform, a meaningful step toward its long-term quantum advantage roadmap. The market appears to be weighing execution progress against still-light commercial revenue.
Rigetti reported Q4 revenue of $1.87M versus the $2.33M estimate.
Adjusted EPS came in at –$0.03, in line with expectations.
Earnings Scorecard
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.87M | $2.33M | ❌ Miss |
| Adj. EPS | –$0.03 | –$0.03 | ⚖️ In Line |
The stock in immediately down 3.2%
Rigetti Shares Up 2.5% Today
We’re headed into the close and Rigetti Computing shares are up about 2.5% today. Most quantum stocks are performing well as markets rebound after yesterday’s severe morning sell-off.
Rigetti Computing (Nasdaq: RGTI) reports Q4 2025 results after the market close tonight. Rigetti is largely pre-revenue, but earnings can still create big moves in quantum stocks. Let’s look at the key storylines to follow tonight.
Consensus Estimates
As noted earlier, Rigetti is largely pre-revenue, so whether or not they ‘beat’ earnings won’t be the most watched metric tonight.Here’s what Wall Street expects:
- Revenue: $2.33 million
- Adjusted EPS: -$.03
- EBITDA: -$13.93 million
The most useful benchmark is the comparable quarter: Q4 2024 came in at $2.27 million in revenue against a $2.49 million estimate, a miss of 8.65%. Wall Street has consistently penciled in a non-GAAP EPS estimate of -$0.04 each quarter throughout 2025.
| Metric | Q4 2024 Actual | Q3 2025 Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.27M | $1.95M |
| EPS | -$0.68 (GAAP) | -$0.03 (Non-GAAP) |
| Operating Loss | -$18.5M | -$20.5M |
Where the Stock Stands
Last quarter, Rigetti posted revenue of $1.95 million, missing the $2.17 million estimate by 10.28%, while beating on non-GAAP EPS with -$0.03 versus the -$0.04 estimate. Since December 1, 2025, the stock has dropped 26.16%, from $23.45 to $17.32.
Year to date, shares are off 21.83%, though they remain up 120.29% over the past year.
Key Things to Watch Tonight
- 100+ qubit milestone delivery: CEO Subodh Kulkarni said the company was “on track to deliver our 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system with an anticipated 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.” Tonight is when investors find out if that target was met.
- Novera order pipeline: Rigetti booked $5.7 million in Novera system purchase orders for H1 2026 delivery. Any update on backlog or new orders matters more than the headline revenue figure.
- DARPA and government contract updates: Rigetti was not initially selected for DARPA QBI Stage B. Management commentary on government pipeline and whether that decision has been reconsidered will set the tone for 2026 sentiment.
- Expenses: With revenue still light, how is expense management looking?
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
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