Live: Will Broadcom (AVGO) Beat Earnings Tonight?

We’re into Wall Street’s questions but here’s the important notes from the conference call:

• A customer (beyond Google) has placed $10 billion worth of orders for XPUs
• This allows Broadcom to raise revenue expectations for Fiscal 2026
• Hock Tan will remain CEO through 2030 (at least)

Thanks to all three pieces of news on the call, Broadcom shares are now up 4% after beginning the call flat.

That caused even a bit more of jump in the shares. Tan is seeing as one of the best CEOs in the semiconductor space.

Shares are now up 4%.

Broadcom shares just jumped from flat to being up 3.3% within minutes. We posted the quote that caused this movement two updates ago (the company will be raising Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance).

“Turn to AI networking. Demand continued to be strong because networking is becoming critical as LLM continue to evolve in intelligence, computer classes who grow bigger. The network is the computer, and our customers are facing challenges as they scale to classes beyond compute nodes. For instance, Scale Up, which we all know about, is a difficult challenge when trying to create substantial bandwidth to share memory across multiple GPUs or XPUs within rate. Today’s AI rate scales up a mere 72 GPUs at 28.8 terabytes second bandwidth using a proprietary MVLink.”

There’s few concrete numbers in here so it won’t cause movement like Tan’s quote that XPU momentum is causing the company to raise their 2026 revenue outlook.

“Now let me give you more color on our XPU business which accelerated to 65% of our AI revenue this quarter. Demand for custom AI accelerators from our 3 customers continue to grow as each of them journeys at their own pace towards compute self-sufficiency.

And progressively, we continue to gain share with these customers. Now further to these 3 customers, as we had previously mentioned, we have been working with other prospects on their own AI accelerators. Last quarter, one of these prospects release production orders to Broadcom. And we have accordingly characterized them as a qualified customer for XPUs.

And, in fact, has secured over $10 billion of orders of AI regs based on our XPUs. And reflecting this, we now expect the outlook for fiscal 2026 AI revenue to improve significantly from what we had indicated last quarter. ”

The stock just surged on this comment – we told you not to leave this blog!

This live blog will keep going, but we’re preparing for Broadcom’s conference call.

You can join the call by registering on the company’s investor relations page.

The call will begin at 5 p.m. and we will post updates as it goes. We recommend you stay on this page as Broadcom’s call has caused large share price movements in the past. 

Broadcom is forecasting AI revenues of $6.2 billion next quarter. What has the ramp in its AI revenue looked like?

• Next quarter (guidance): $6.2 billion
• Fiscal Q2 (last quarter): $5.2 billion
• Fiscal Q1: $4.4 billion
• Fiscal Q4 (2024): $4.1 billion
• Fiscal Q3 2024: $3.7 billion
• Fiscal Q2 2024: $3.1 billion
• Fiscal Q1 2024: $2.3 billion
• Fiscal Q4 2023: $1.5 billion

As you can see, its a very impressive ramp that still has a long runway for growth as Broadcom begins working with major customers like OpenAI and Meta at scale.

Don’t leave this blog. 

Of all the major tech companies, shares of Broadcom move the most based on what is said on their conference call.

Shares surged 24% after CEO Hock Tan gave bullish future projections for Broadcom’s business on the company’s Q4 call. We’ll provide a summary of Broadcom’s call after it concludes. All you have to do is leave this tab open and when you come back new updates will load automatically.

Braodcom’s conference call starts at 5 p.m. ET.

Braodcom shares are little changed after hours despite very solid guidance for its AI revenue. One reason even that solid AI guidance isn’t moving the stock? Simply put, a lot has been priced into Broadcom across the past year. The stock is up 98% in the past year and a remarkable 2,400% in the past decade.

Earlier we posted that Broadcom had moved at least +/- 5% across each of its earnings in the past year.

Well, tomorrow it might break that streak of big moves.

Shares are up .25% after hours.

Broadcom’s earnings were largely in line, which has generally been punished this earnings season. For example, Marvell delivered inline results for the prior quarter and its shares fell 18% the next day.

Yet, Broadcom’s guidance is encouraging. The company is guiding to $17.4 billion in sales next quarter (above Wall Street’s estimates of $17 billion) and the entire overage is outperformance in its AI segment.

With Broadcom’s future value being largely determined by its growth potential in AI, investors would rather see outperformance in that segment versus other parts of its business.

AVGO | Broadcom Inc. Q3’25 Earnings Highlights:

• Adj. EPS: $1.69 [✅]; UP +36% YoY
• Revenue: $15.95B [✅]; UP +22% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 67% [✅]; UP +100 bps YoY
• Net Income: $4.14B [✅]; UP +319% YoY
• Free Cash Flow: $7.02B; UP +47% YoY
• Quarterly Dividend: $0.59 per share

Outlook:

• Revenue: $17.4B ±24% [✅]
  • Guidance reflects continued strength in custom AI accelerators and networking.
  • AI semiconductor revenue expected to accelerate to $6.2 billion in Q4.

Q3 Segment Performance:

• Semiconductor Solutions Revenue: $9.17B [✅]; UP +26% YoY
• Infrastructure Software Revenue: $6.79B [✅]; UP +17% YoY

Other Key Q3 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $10.46B [✅]; UP +32% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $2.04B [✅]; DOWN -6% YoY
• R&D Expenses: $3.05B [✅]; UP +29% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 21.7% (vs. 150.5% YoY)
• Cash and Cash Equivalents: $10.72B

CEO Commentary:

• Hock Tan: “Broadcom achieved record third quarter revenue on continued strength in custom AI accelerators, networking and VMware. Q3 AI revenue growth accelerated to 63% year-over-year to $5.2 billion. We expect growth in AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to $6.2 billion in Q4, delivering eleven consecutive quarters of growth, as our customers continue to strongly invest.”

CFO Commentary:

• Kirsten Spears: “Consolidated revenue grew 22% year-over-year to a record $16.0 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased 30% year-over-year to $10.7 billion reflecting strong operating leverage. Free cash flow was a record $7.0 billion, up 47% year-over-year. Consistent with our commitment to return excess cash to shareholders, we returned $2.8 billion to shareholders in the third quarter through cash dividends.”

Revenue was $15.95 billion, above the $15.82 billion consensus estimate.

Non-GAAP EPS was $1.69, above the $1.66 estimate.

Broadcom reported a 22% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by strong performance in custom AI accelerators and networking.

Non-GAAP net income was $8.40 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to $10.70 billion.

Free cash flow reached $7.02 billion, a 47% increase from the previous year. The company provided a positive outlook for Q4 2025, expecting revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year.

Why is Broadcom rising after relatively average earnings. It’s largely because guidance for AI revenue in Q4 ($6.2 billion) topped expectations ($5.8 billion).

Broadcom’s shares have immediately turned up 1.5% following their earnings. We’ll dig into guidance momentarily.

Here’s what Wall Street expected:

• Revenue $15.82B
• EPS (Normalized) $1.66

Here’s what Broadcom delivered:

• Revenue $15.95B
• EPS (Normalized) $1.69

Broadcom earnings are expected at 4:15 p.m. ET. Once they release we’ll begin updating this blog with news and analysis.

We just posted an update highlighting the gains many AI infrastructure stocks are seeing today.

Broadcom itself has seen solid performance with just 10 minutes left in the trading day. Shares are up about 1.3%.

The bigger question is how much shares might move in reaction to the company’s earnings tomorrow.

When Broadcom reported its second quarter earnings, the stock dropped 5% the next day. Prior to that, Broadcom jumped 9% the next day after reporting Q1 earnings and surged 24% the day after its Q4 earnings release.

Its pretty unlikely we’ll see a repeat of Broadcom’s gains after reporting its Q4 earnings. On that conference call CEO Hock Tan revealed new ‘Servicable Addressable Market’ figures that caused a massive ‘re-rating’ of the company’s share price.

Still, Q2’s 5% drop was the most muted reaction (in either direction) the company has seen across the past year. Even with Broadcom now being a trillion dollar company, its likely shares will move relatively strongly in either direction once earnings hit.

AI stocks are generally seeing strong gains across the board today.

At 24/7 Wall St, we host ‘The AI Investor Podcast‘ which invests $500,000 across our top ideas in the AI space.

We recommended Broadcom on October 11th and have invested $35,000 in the company. Its up more than 69% since that first recommendation.

In addition, our recommendation of Credo Technology (Nasdaq: CRDO) is now up 389% since we announced it last September. Credo shares are up 7.7% today after the company announced blowout earnings.

Another company that announced fantastic earnings today – and is now up 63% since our recommendation last fall – is Ciena (Nasdaq: CIEN).

Clearly, its been a great earnings season for some of the fastest growing stocks in the AI infrastructure space. We’ll see if Broadcom repeats the success of its many of its peers when it reports in about 35 minutes.

You can listen to our latest episode of ‘The AI Investor Podcast’ below in Spotify. Make sure to subscribe to get our next episode where we spend time analyzing Broadcom’s earnings. Also, we’ve embedded a video of our original Broadcom recommendation from YouTube below as well.

In the long run, Broadcom’s biggest opportunity is their XPU business. Just this week there were reports out that Google is in discussions with cloud providers to host its TPUs.

Broadcom’s relationship with Google is the longest-running custom AI accelerator project and has clearly been a grand slam the comapay hopes to emulate with currently ramping customers like Meta and OpenAI.

Yet, Broadcom’s networking business might have a larger impact on whether it beats or misses Wall Street targets in the coming quarter.

After posting 64% sequential networking growth in the first quarter, NVIDIA posted another 46% sequential growth in Fiscal Q2 when it reported last week.

At a company level, Broadcom is expected to post 21% revenue growth last quarter. Its semiconductor growth is projected to be higher at 25%, and AI growth has the highest expected rates at 65%.

Yet, Broadcom’s AI networking is the most red-hot of all its segments. AI networking grew an incredible 170% last quarter!

The tea leaves around recent networking growth have been great as well. Smaller players like Ciena and Credo announced fantastic earnings in the past 24 hours.

This is all to say, while massive AI accelerator projects are Broadcom’s largest opportunity and have driven much of the company’s share price growth in the past year, its networking opportunity is quite large and could lead to EPS outperformance both last quarter and in Broadcom’s guidance.

Average 7-day move (last 4): +10.33%